Which do you believe is true?

[Yoda]

Closer to option 2. Even if you're one of those people who don't believe current polling and insist on "unskewing" them, the trends of these polls simply can't be denied. Fetterman had small leads months ago, now they are consistently well into double digits. Barnes had a small lead over Johnson months ago, now the same pollster has it at 7. Kelly in AZ had a small lead, now he's polling well ahead. Warnock's lead in most polling has grown larger. The GCB has swung to the democrats' direction, and by a good amount.