Which do you believe is true?

[OneJ]

I'd choose option #2 by default because no one truly knows how much polling will be off literally until we get results (unless I just choose to lower my expectations which I have for most of this cycle anyway). We can cite 2016 and 2020 all we want to for how polling can overestimate Democrats, but remember that 2018 did fairly well. The results that we got from the recent special elections (at least the ones that had polling) didn't underestimate the Republicans. At the end of the day, we are 2.5 months out and I realize that anything can happen from this point forward.