Which do you believe is true?

[Xing]

Seems to me one of these has to be true. I think it could be a combination of both, though with a slight lean toward the first option.

[wesmoorenerd]

Both, leaning toward the second. There's probably still going to be some amount of polling error but the shift in the national environment is undeniable at this point.

[Ferguson97]

Both are somewhat true. The environment has undeniably gotten better for the Democrats in the past 2-3 months, and the polls are likely underestimating GOP-support - but I'm not convinced that it will necessarily be worse than 2020.

[roxas11]

I'll be honest, I thought the polls were a joke until I saw the election results in both Kansas and Minnesota. Kansas had the highest voter turnout since 2008 and in Minnesota the Republicans only won by a few points in a district that trump himself won by 10 in 2020...

To me those results confirm that the backlash against Republican over abortion is very real and Dems are clearly coming out to vote in ways they never did in 2010 or 2014

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Somewhere in between.

I expect the actual results to be drastically different to the polling in recent weeks, which honestly suggests a blue wave environment..

Currently expecting R +2-3

[Tekken_Guy]

Both. It's looking like it won't be a Republican blowout but Democrats still will lose the house, though even that looks like it might just be a 20 seat gain rather than a 40 seat one.

[Progressive Pessimist]

The environment has shifted to Democrats, by metrics even beyond polls.

We can't say polls are as erroneous as 2016/2020 until election day. I don't blame anyone for mentally preparing for that possibility, and it could happen. But right now polls are yet another data point that points to an improving environment and for now they're still something we need to consider, especially since they too add up with the other factors indicating a shift to the Democrats.

[Schiff for Senate]

Seems to me one of these has to be true. I think it could be a combination of both, though with a slight lean toward the first second option.

I would say this.

Democrats have obviously gotten a boost since Roe got overturned (I'm not just talking about Roe being overturned, but also all the other Dark Brandon stuff that's happened since, too), but polls will likely underestimate the GOP in the end, as usual. Voted option 2 though 3 applies too.

[wbrocks67]

Somewhere in between.

I expect the actual results to be drastically different to the polling in recent weeks, which honestly suggests a blue wave environment..

Currently expecting R +2-3

But the results don't indicate a "blue wave" though. A lot of this polling is nearly completely due to GOP nominating horrific candidates in almost every major contest. People really acting like that doesn't have something to do with all of this? Yes, when you nominate sh*tty candidates across the board, sometimes the results WILL make it look like a blue wave when it actuality a lot of it has to do with candidate quality. Dobbs and everything has obviously played a huge decision, but the GOP played itself this entire election season with these candidates...

[Schiff for Senate]

Both. It's looking like it won't be a Republican blowout but Democrats still will lose the house, though even that looks like it might just be a 20 seat gain rather than a 40 seat one.

Agreed.

[Schiff for Senate]

Somewhere in between.

I expect the actual results to be drastically different to the polling in recent weeks, which honestly suggests a blue wave environment..

Currently expecting R +2-3

But the results don't indicate a "blue wave" though. A lot of this polling is nearly completely due to GOP nominating horrific candidates in almost every major contest. People really acting like that doesn't have something to do with all of this? Yes, when you nominate sh*tty candidates across the board, sometimes the results WILL make it look like a blue wave when it actuality a lot of it has to do with candidate quality. Dobbs and everything has obviously played a huge decision, but the GOP played itself this entire election season with these candidates...

Paging PA-GOV 2014, which PA-GOV 2022 is looking somewhat similar to. It was a purple state in a red wave, but the GOP candidate (Gov. Tom Corbett) was a very unpopular incumbent, and the Democratic candidate (Tom Wolf) was fairly strong, and candidate quality won the day decisively, with Democrats winning by 10 points.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Somewhere in between.

I expect the actual results to be drastically different to the polling in recent weeks, which honestly suggests a blue wave environment..

Currently expecting R +2-3

But the results don't indicate a "blue wave" though. A lot of this polling is nearly completely due to GOP nominating horrific candidates in almost every major contest. People really acting like that doesn't have something to do with all of this? Yes, when you nominate sh*tty candidates across the board, sometimes the results WILL make it look like a blue wave when it actuality a lot of it has to do with candidate quality. Dobbs and everything has obviously played a huge decision, but the GOP played itself this entire election season with these candidates...

Fetterman +18 and Barnes +7 is most definitely blue wave territory.. I'm not sure you can suggest different.

[wbrocks67]

Somewhere in between.

I expect the actual results to be drastically different to the polling in recent weeks, which honestly suggests a blue wave environment..

Currently expecting R +2-3

But the results don't indicate a "blue wave" though. A lot of this polling is nearly completely due to GOP nominating horrific candidates in almost every major contest. People really acting like that doesn't have something to do with all of this? Yes, when you nominate sh*tty candidates across the board, sometimes the results WILL make it look like a blue wave when it actuality a lot of it has to do with candidate quality. Dobbs and everything has obviously played a huge decision, but the GOP played itself this entire election season with these candidates...

Fetterman +18 and Barnes +7 is most definitely blue wave territory.. I'm not sure you can suggest different.

Literally read the post right above yours. Guess Tom Wolf was a blue wave in 2014 too!

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Somewhere in between.

I expect the actual results to be drastically different to the polling in recent weeks, which honestly suggests a blue wave environment..

Currently expecting R +2-3

But the results don't indicate a "blue wave" though. A lot of this polling is nearly completely due to GOP nominating horrific candidates in almost every major contest. People really acting like that doesn't have something to do with all of this? Yes, when you nominate sh*tty candidates across the board, sometimes the results WILL make it look like a blue wave when it actuality a lot of it has to do with candidate quality. Dobbs and everything has obviously played a huge decision, but the GOP played itself this entire election season with these candidates...

Fetterman +18 and Barnes +7 is most definitely blue wave territory.. I'm not sure you can suggest different.

Literally read the post right above yours. Guess Tom Wolf was a blue wave in 2014 too!

False equivalence as I'm sure you're aware.. Corbett was a particularly unpopular governor and obviously it's particularly easier for a gov race to not become nationalized.. unlike a senate general.

Anyway Corbett lost by 9.. not exactly comparable to 18 points is it.

[wbrocks67]

Somewhere in between.

I expect the actual results to be drastically different to the polling in recent weeks, which honestly suggests a blue wave environment..

Currently expecting R +2-3

But the results don't indicate a "blue wave" though. A lot of this polling is nearly completely due to GOP nominating horrific candidates in almost every major contest. People really acting like that doesn't have something to do with all of this? Yes, when you nominate sh*tty candidates across the board, sometimes the results WILL make it look like a blue wave when it actuality a lot of it has to do with candidate quality. Dobbs and everything has obviously played a huge decision, but the GOP played itself this entire election season with these candidates...

Fetterman +18 and Barnes +7 is most definitely blue wave territory.. I'm not sure you can suggest different.

Literally read the post right above yours. Guess Tom Wolf was a blue wave in 2014 too!

False equivalence as I'm sure you're aware.. Corbett was a particularly unpopular governor and obviously it's particularly easier for a gov race to not become nationalized.. unlike a senate general.

Anyway Corbett lost by 9.. not exactly comparable to 18 points is it.

Stop being so obsessed with one poll. No one thinks Fetterman is gonna win by 18 and no single poll is infallible. That's why we average them out.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Somewhere in between.

I expect the actual results to be drastically different to the polling in recent weeks, which honestly suggests a blue wave environment..

Currently expecting R +2-3

But the results don't indicate a "blue wave" though. A lot of this polling is nearly completely due to GOP nominating horrific candidates in almost every major contest. People really acting like that doesn't have something to do with all of this? Yes, when you nominate sh*tty candidates across the board, sometimes the results WILL make it look like a blue wave when it actuality a lot of it has to do with candidate quality. Dobbs and everything has obviously played a huge decision, but the GOP played itself this entire election season with these candidates...

Fetterman +18 and Barnes +7 is most definitely blue wave territory.. I'm not sure you can suggest different.

Literally read the post right above yours. Guess Tom Wolf was a blue wave in 2014 too!

False equivalence as I'm sure you're aware.. Corbett was a particularly unpopular governor and obviously it's particularly easier for a gov race to not become nationalized.. unlike a senate general.

Anyway Corbett lost by 9.. not exactly comparable to 18 points is it.

Stop being so obsessed with one poll. No one thinks Fetterman is gonna win by 18 and no single poll is infallible. That's why we average them out.

I'm not obsessed with anything.. it's the most recent poll we've got of PA so of course I'm going to cite it.

[Gracile]

Somewhere in between, though I lean toward option 1. I still expect the polls to be pretty off, but I think the possibility of a red ripple happening is now slightly higher than a red wave.

[Yoda]

Closer to option 2. Even if you're one of those people who don't believe current polling and insist on "unskewing" them, the trends of these polls simply can't be denied. Fetterman had small leads months ago, now they are consistently well into double digits. Barnes had a small lead over Johnson months ago, now the same pollster has it at 7. Kelly in AZ had a small lead, now he's polling well ahead. Warnock's lead in most polling has grown larger. The GCB has swung to the democrats' direction, and by a good amount.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

The final results will be closer than the polls indicate, but Fetterman will almost certainly win and Barnes seems likelier to win than at any previous point.

[7,052,770]

Option 1 is possible, but it would be inexcusable for the entire polling industry to blow it after doing poorly in 2020 and putting effort into improving their models. After all that, they all got worse? If that's the case we really can't ever trust polling again.

[wbrocks67]

Also, why do some people believe that some polling is true or some polling is not? It's not infallible of course, but current polling also has Biden's approvals still considerably in the tank. So it's not like these are some constantly D-heavy polls coming out.

Now if you were getting Fetterman +18 polls with also Biden +10 approvals in PA or something then you could argue okay something is clearly wrong here, but the same polls that are producing margins like Barnes +7 are also churning out Biden -15 approvals.

Not just that, but the GCB average right now is pretty much aligning with a lot of what we're seeing in special elections, WA results, etc.

Polling can always be off, but I don't see evidence in what we do know that there is some major glaring issue that is definitely wrong right now...

[Sir Mohamed]

As of today, I think both are true. The national environment has definitely shifted over recent weeks. Hard to deny that.

As for polling, it's still premature to finally determine. We don't know how polls in October look. They might be more accurate then than the polls of today here.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Lean towards 1.

Things have improved for Democrats and will continue to improve - their messaging is a little better as they passed a bill, the cost of living crisis is getting a bit easier, and the GOP worsened material conditions via Dobbs. Biden's approval rating is now above its nadir - while polling could well have gotten worse since 2020, I doubt H2H polling suddenly declined in quality after 2021.

However, we're talking about things getting somewhat better from a position of 'absolute sh**tshow', even if the polls were about as bad as they were in 2020. Republicans are still favoured to flip the Senate and extremely likely to flip the House. I will no longer say the House is safe R, which I believed for a few months earlier in this year. I wouldn't call the scale of the Republican win I am predicting a "red wave", but I didn't see the 2018 results as a blue wave, either. Polarisation probably means what would once produce waves can now only make ripples.

[President Johnson]

Impossible to answer at as of August 2022 because we don't know how much polls will be off. The polls may show a different picture in October. Assuming this largely holds, which is still not granted, #3 is the most likely answer.

[OneJ]

I'd choose option #2 by default because no one truly knows how much polling will be off literally until we get results (unless I just choose to lower my expectations which I have for most of this cycle anyway). We can cite 2016 and 2020 all we want to for how polling can overestimate Democrats, but remember that 2018 did fairly well. The results that we got from the recent special elections (at least the ones that had polling) didn't underestimate the Republicans. At the end of the day, we are 2.5 months out and I realize that anything can happen from this point forward.