MN-01 Special SUSA: Finstad (R) 46 Ettinger (D) 38

[Minnesota Mike]

https://www.kaaltv.com/minnesota-news/minnesota-1st-congressional-district-special-ellection-exclusive-surveyusa-poll-brad-finstad-jeff-ettinger-latest/6539122/

[2016]

Finstad (R) 46 %
Ettinger (DFL) 38 %

https://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=6a557ea4-bde8-49df-a0f0-9d077812693f

[Progressive Pessimist]

That's kind of a shame. I was kind of hoping this one would surprise us. In spite of how much it voted for Trump in both 2016 and 2020 it has always been surprisingly close at the congressional level.

And I don't even mean in terms of an Ettinger win. For this to be similarly close to some of the past results would kind of be an upset. Unless it was all a Hagedorn effect.

[Minnesota Mike]

Crosstabs.

https://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=6a557ea4-bde8-49df-a0f0-9d077812693f

[wbrocks67]

Interesting, this race doesn't seem to be getting much attention despite the fact it was only R+3 in 2020.

[wesmoorenerd]

To me, the interesting thing about the crosstabs is that it is essentially the same for all <65 age groups. But the >65 age group votes less R. This implies ancestral DFLers.

I really dont see how Ds can survive at a national level if they cede districts like MN-01.

1. Not sure I want to put too much stock in this poll anyway considering it wasn't the most accurate
2. As has been well established, this is not an ancestrally D district by any means
3. There are 262 districts that had a more favorable margin for Biden in 2020, Dems will be fine without this one

[SInNYC]

To me, the interesting thing about the crosstabs is that it is essentially the same for all <65 age groups. But the >65 age group votes less R. This implies ancestral DFLers.

I really dont see how Ds can survive at a national level if they cede districts like MN-01.

1. Not sure I want to put too much stock in this poll anyway considering it wasn't the most accurate
2. As has been well established, this is not an ancestrally D district by any means
3. There are 262 districts that had a more favorable margin for Biden in 2020, Dems will be fine without this one

Sorry, I deleted my post before you had replied, since I thought I should post on the actual election forum after seeing real polls. I guess I should have kept it, but you quoted it anyway.

[Person Man]

As one would reasonably expect in a nationally tied election.