GA-GOV (Research Affiliates/Bailey internal): tied

[wbrocks67]

Poll done for the Bailey (D) campaign in GA's LG race (shows him 43-43 with Jones)

SEN:
Warnock (D) 49
Walker (R) 46

GOV:
Abrams (D) 47
Kemp (R) 47

https://pdfhost.io/v/K1J98sEXo_Microsoft_Word_BaileyRAMemodocx

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Good poll😃

[wbrocks67]

I will say, it appears that Abrams has seemed to get a tiny bit of momentum in this race in the last few weeks.

[President Johnson]

Lean Republican.

Overall, the gap between Kemp and Warnock is more realtic here, though. In a state like Georgia I always found it questionable that both can be ahead by five or more. I don't think these races will differ more than four or five points in the end. If I had to bet now, I'd say Kemp by four and Warnock by one or two.

[Spectator]

Lean Republican.

Overall, the gap between Kemp and Warnock is more realtic here, though. In a state like Georgia I always found it questionable that both can be ahead by five or more. I don't think these races will differ more than four or five points in the end. If I had to bet now, I'd say Kemp by four and Warnock by one or two.

I’ve always attributed the gulf between the Senate race and Governor’s race in polling to be mainly due to Kemp getting some goodwill from some Democrat voters for not going along with Trump to steal the state for him. That’s an amazingly low bar to clear, but I imagine for some NeverTrumpers that’s enough.

Walker is also obviously a problematic candidate in his own right, but it’s hard for me to see Warnock gaining anyone that voted Republican in 2020 because of it.

[wbrocks67]

Lean Republican.

Overall, the gap between Kemp and Warnock is more realtic here, though. In a state like Georgia I always found it questionable that both can be ahead by five or more. I don't think these races will differ more than four or five points in the end. If I had to bet now, I'd say Kemp by four and Warnock by one or two.

I’ve always attributed the gulf between the Senate race and Governor’s race in polling to be mainly due to Kemp getting some goodwill from some Democrat voters for not going along with Trump to steal the state for him. That’s an amazingly low bar to clear, but I imagine for some NeverTrumpers that’s enough.

Walker is also obviously a problematic candidate in his own right, but it’s hard for me to see Warnock gaining anyone that voted Republican in 2020 because of it.

Yep, and it seems like Abrams has made a tiny bit of inroad with those voters recently.

[Spectator]

For what it’s worth, I’m planning to vote for Kemp and Warnock this year. But I don’t imagine I’m typical of many Georgia voters.

[Devils30]

Lean Republican.

Overall, the gap between Kemp and Warnock is more realtic here, though. In a state like Georgia I always found it questionable that both can be ahead by five or more. I don't think these races will differ more than four or five points in the end. If I had to bet now, I'd say Kemp by four and Warnock by one or two.

I’ve always attributed the gulf between the Senate race and Governor’s race in polling to be mainly due to Kemp getting some goodwill from some Democrat voters for not going along with Trump to steal the state for him. That’s an amazingly low bar to clear, but I imagine for some NeverTrumpers that’s enough.

Walker is also obviously a problematic candidate in his own right, but it’s hard for me to see Warnock gaining anyone that voted Republican in 2020 because of it.

Yep, and it seems like Abrams has made a tiny bit of inroad with those voters recently.

The 6 week abortion ban is very out of touch with swing voters in Cobb.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Lean Republican.

Overall, the gap between Kemp and Warnock is more realtic here, though. In a state like Georgia I always found it questionable that both can be ahead by five or more. I don't think these races will differ more than four or five points in the end. If I had to bet now, I'd say Kemp by four and Warnock by one or two.

I’ve always attributed the gulf between the Senate race and Governor’s race in polling to be mainly due to Kemp getting some goodwill from some Democrat voters for not going along with Trump to steal the state for him. That’s an amazingly low bar to clear, but I imagine for some NeverTrumpers that’s enough.

Walker is also obviously a problematic candidate in his own right, but it’s hard for me to see Warnock gaining anyone that voted Republican in 2020 because of it.

Yep, and it seems like Abrams has made a tiny bit of inroad with those voters recently.

She really needs to remind that just because Kemp isn't a Big Lie supporter that it doesn't mean he isn't still too far right for how the state is moving. Too many voters who should know better are getting distracted by that, and hopefully her campaign can now fixate on those other ways which Kemp is actually as out-of-touch with them as Trump and Walker is.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Miz. Stacy A on the way up!

[Horus]

For what it’s worth, I’m planning to vote for Kemp and Warnock this year. But I don’t imagine I’m typical of many Georgia voters.

That's very typical if you live in the northern burbs.