VA-2/VA-7: GOP candidates go full pro-Trump

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/JenKiggans/status/1557008291523432449

https://twitter.com/yestoyesli/status/1557011269034680320

https://twitter.com/Jaaavis/status/1557041442404671494

Vega also RT'ed McCarthy's unhinged tweet.

Don't imagine this will help either with the early 'moderate' schticks they were possibly trying to cultivate here.

[Schiff for Senate]

Anyway this can't hurt Spanberger or Luria, but I honestly doubt it helps them very much if at all.

I'd guess right now that Spanberger probably survives (Lean D) while Luria probably doesn't (Tilt to Lean R). This doesn't really change that.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Bump each rating towards the Dems

[Woody]

And just like that, Democrats are now pro-FBI, all in the name of owning cons..

The same agency that suppressed numerous civil rights groups and it's leaders, breach of conduct, spying, abuse of people's civil liberties, etc..

Anyways, this won't change anything.

[Schiff for Senate]

And just like that, Democrats are now pro-FBI, all in the name of owning cons..

The same agency that suppressed numerous civil rights groups and it's leaders, breach of conduct, spying, abuse of people's civil liberties, etc..

Anyways, this won't change anything.

Not pro-FBI. Just more pro-justice than reflexively anti-FBI. The FBI has done a lot of bad stuff which Democrats have opposed, but when it does the right thing, as it did here, you won't see Democrats reflexively oppose the FBI for the sake of opposing them. They oppose the FBI when it does bad things, and support it when it does the right thing. It's not an all-or-nothing binary and it has nothing to do with "owning the cons."

But yeah, I agree that the GOP candidates' respective statements won't really change anything as far as electoral outcome is concerned. VA02 was and is Tilt/Lean R, and VA07 was and is Lean D.

[wbrocks67]

And just like that, Democrats are now pro-FBI, all in the name of owning cons..

The same agency that suppressed numerous civil rights groups and it's leaders, breach of conduct, spying, abuse of people's civil liberties, etc..

Anyways, this won't change anything.

Not pro-FBI. Just more pro-justice than reflexively anti-FBI. The FBI has done a lot of bad stuff which Democrats have opposed, but when it does the right thing, as it did here, you won't see Democrats reflexively oppose the FBI for the sake of opposing them. They oppose the FBI when it does bad things, and support it when it does the right thing. It's not an all-or-nothing binary and it has nothing to do with "owning the cons."

But yeah, I agree that the GOP candidates' respective statements won't really change anything as far as electoral outcome is concerned. VA02 was and is Tilt/Lean R, and VA07 was and is Lean D.

Not really just about the statements themselves - the point is that the two can't act like they're some type of moderate for this district. Both are doubling down with hard right partisan nonsense, and I don't see how that plays well in either district.

Kiggans whole bit was that she was some type of 'center R' and that facade is clearly faded.

[Progressive Pessimist]

This is the mainstream Republican position. Why shouldn't they be explicit about it?

Anyway this can't hurt Spanberger or Luria, but I honestly doubt it helps them very much if at all.

I'd guess right now that Spanberger probably survives (Lean D) while Luria probably doesn't (Tilt to Lean R). This doesn't really change that.

I agree here. I don't even know if most Americans will remember that this happened by the time November rolls around. Republicans are very kneejerk in what they focus their outrage on and surely something else will come along by that point.

One thing I am a bit curious about though is how the FBI is regarded in VA-2, which has a large military presence. To me I would expect voters who are sympathetic to the military to be somewhat sympathetic to federal law enforcement too. So maybe there's something there for Luria to work with. I'm not going to shift my rating due to it either though. I still think this is one of the first ten seats to flip GOP.

[Schiff for Senate]

This is the mainstream Republican position. Why shouldn't they be explicit about it?

Anyway this can't hurt Spanberger or Luria, but I honestly doubt it helps them very much if at all.

I'd guess right now that Spanberger probably survives (Lean D) while Luria probably doesn't (Tilt to Lean R). This doesn't really change that.

I agree here. I don't even know if most Americans will remember that this happened by the time November rolls around. Republicans are very kneejerk in what they focus their outrage on and surely something else will come along by that point.

One thing I am a bit curious about though is how the FBI is regarded in VA-2, which has a large military presence. To me I would expect voters whoa re sympathetic to the military to be somewhat sympathetic to federal law enforcement too. So maybe there's something there for Luria to work with. I'm not going to shift my rating due to it either though. I still think this is one of the first ten seats to flip GOP.

Very interesting to consider. And IIRC one of Luria/Spanberger also has an intelligence/FBI/CIA background (Slotkin, who also flipped a competitive seat in 2018 up in MI, definitely is, but I'm pretty sure one of Luria and Spanberger is too).

[wbrocks67]

This is the mainstream Republican position. Why shouldn't they be explicit about it?

Anyway this can't hurt Spanberger or Luria, but I honestly doubt it helps them very much if at all.

I'd guess right now that Spanberger probably survives (Lean D) while Luria probably doesn't (Tilt to Lean R). This doesn't really change that.

I agree here. I don't even know if most Americans will remember that this happened by the time November rolls around. Republicans are very kneejerk in what they focus their outrage on and surely something else will come along by that point.

One thing I am a bit curious about though is how the FBI is regarded in VA-2, which has a large military presence. To me I would expect voters whoa re sympathetic to the military to be somewhat sympathetic to federal law enforcement too. So maybe there's something there for Luria to work with. I'm not going to shift my rating due to it either though. I still think this is one of the first ten seats to flip GOP.

Very interesting to consider. And IIRC one of Luria/Spanberger also has an intelligence/FBI/CIA background (Slotkin, who also flipped a competitive seat in 2018 up in MI, definitely is, but I'm pretty sure one of Luria and Spanberger is too).

I believe Spanberger worked at the CIA

[GeorgiaModerate]

This is the mainstream Republican position. Why shouldn't they be explicit about it?

Anyway this can't hurt Spanberger or Luria, but I honestly doubt it helps them very much if at all.

I'd guess right now that Spanberger probably survives (Lean D) while Luria probably doesn't (Tilt to Lean R). This doesn't really change that.

I agree here. I don't even know if most Americans will remember that this happened by the time November rolls around. Republicans are very kneejerk in what they focus their outrage on and surely something else will come along by that point.

One thing I am a bit curious about though is how the FBI is regarded in VA-2, which has a large military presence. To me I would expect voters whoa re sympathetic to the military to be somewhat sympathetic to federal law enforcement too. So maybe there's something there for Luria to work with. I'm not going to shift my rating due to it either though. I still think this is one of the first ten seats to flip GOP.

Very interesting to consider. And IIRC one of Luria/Spanberger also has an intelligence/FBI/CIA background (Slotkin, who also flipped a competitive seat in 2018 up in MI, definitely is, but I'm pretty sure one of Luria and Spanberger is too).

I believe Spanberger worked at the CIA

Yes, both Slotkin and Spanberger worked for the CIA.  Luria was a U.S. Navy officer.

[ProgressiveModerate]

One issue I sometimes have is that people assume that just because a district voted for Biden in 2020, the 2022 electorate will be plurality or even majority Biden (and to a lesser degree vise-versa with Trump districts).

The fact is VA-02 could very well have a plurality or even majority Trump electorate in 2022. This was likely the case for VA-Gov in the district when one looks at the topline results as well as looking at the turnout drop-off in heavily black precincts in the district. Given Kiggans district is so narrow this may ultimately work out for her, but I generally think it's best to try and build as big of a coalition as possible.

Turnout dynamics flipping VA-07 is also possible but by the time turnout dynamics alone cause VA-07 to flip, the GOP probably already has a majority.

The mistake isn't that relying on turnout dynamics is necessarily bad, but that so far special elections have not shown consistent and extreme turnout dynamics in the GOP's favor for them to rely purely on it.