Key U.S. Senate & Gubernatorial Race Predictions

[Del Tachi]

Senate



Safe D: 44
Likely D: 2
Lean D: 0
Toss-Up/Tilt D: 1
Toss-Up/Tilt R: 2
Lean R: 2
Likely R: 2
Safe R: 47

Dems: 47
Reps: 53 ✓

Since I haven't posted on this forum in months, I'm going to detail any rating changes that I would've made in that time span.

Alaska: 53.5% Murkowski, 46.5% Tshibaka (Safe R, Lean Murkowski --> Likely Murkowski (Aug))
Arizona: 49.5% Masters, 48.5% Kelly (Lean R --> Tilt R (Sep) (possibly lean R again))
Colorado: 52.0% Bennet, 46.5% O’Dea (Lean D --> Likely D (Sep))
Florida: 54.5% Rubio, 44.5% Demings (Safe R consistently)
Georgia: 48.5% Walker, 48.0% Warnock (Likely Runoff) (Lean R --> Tilt R (Oct))
   If Runoff: 51.0% Walker, 49.0% Warnock
Nevada: 51.0% Laxalt, 46.5% Cortez-Masto (Lean R consistently)
New Hampshire: 49.5% Hassan, 48.0% Bolduc (Tilt D --> Lean D (Sep) --> Tilt D (Oct))
North Carolina: 53.0% Budd, 45.5% Beasley (Likely R consistently)
Ohio: 55.5% Vance, 44.5% Ryan (Safe R consistently)
Pennsylvania: 50.5% Oz, 47.0% Fetterman (Lean R --> Tilt R (Jul) --> Lean R (Oct))
Washington: 54.5% Murray, 45.5% Smiley (Likely D consistently)
Wisconsin: 53.0% Johnson, 47.0% Barnes (Lean R --> Likely R (Sep))

Overall Rating: Lean R (around 80% chance R’s take Senate)

OH, FL, UT and IA are not competitive. Ohio and Utah will have by far the worst polls of the cycle, followed by Pennsylvania. Wisconsin and Florida will actually be not too bad compared to others, but will still underestimate R’s. I also previously had IL as “Likely D”. While I think it’s Safe D now, don’t be surprised if the margin gets to single digits. Same with Connecticut and other medium-tier blue states. I also suspect Hochul's weak performance in NY will bring down Schumer's % below 60%.

Any Democrat polling under 49% is more likely than not to lose. Many Democrats have 1-4% leads, but it’s typically 46-44 or 47-46. That’s almost always a bad sign in our modern era, especially for a bad midterm year. In some cases, we’ve even see the raw average % overestimate Democrats in 2020, so that could happen too.

Governors



Alaska: 54.0% Dunleavy, 46.0% Gara (Likely R consistently)
Arizona: 52.5% Lake, 47.5% Hobbs (Lean R consistently)
Connecticut: 55.0% Lamont, 44.5% Stefanowski (Likely D consistently)
Florida: 55.5% DeSantis, 44.0% Crist (Safe R consistently)
Georgia: 53.0% Kemp, 45.5% Abrams (Lean R --> Likely R (Aug))
Illinois: 54.5% Pritzker, 44.5% Baily (Likely D consistently)
Kansas: 52.0% Schmidt, 45.5% Kelly (Lean R consistently)
Maine: 50.0% Mills, 48.5% LePage (Tilt D consistently)
Michigan: 49.5% Dixon, 49.5% Whitmer (Tilt R --> Lean D (Sep) --> Tilt D (Oct) --> Tilt R (Oct))
Minnesota: 50.5% Walz, 47.0% Jensen (Lean D (possibility Tilt D later))
Nevada: 51.0% Lombardo, 46.0% Sisolak (Lean R consistently)
New York: 54.0% Hochul, 46.0% Zeldin (Safe D --> Likely D)
New Mexico: 50.0% Grisham, 49.0% Ronchetti (Lean D --> Tilt D)
Oregon: 45.5% Kotek, 45.0% Drazan (Lean D --> Tilt D (Sep))
Pennsylvania: 50.5% Shapiro, 48.5% Mastriano (Lean R --> Tilt R (Aug) --> Lean D (Oct) --> Tilt D (Oct))
Rhode Island: 56.0% McKee, 43.0% Kalus (Likely D consistently)
Texas: 55.5% Abbott, 43.0% O’Rourke (Safe R consistently)
Wisconsin: 52.0% Michels, 47.5% Evers (Lean R consistently)

OK is NOT competitive. Prepare for MASSIVE polling errors in several governor’s races, especially in the Midwest and blue-leaning states. Pennsylvania, Michigan (which people are already hedging), Maine, and New Mexico come to mind). I previously had CO as “Likely D”, now think it’s Safe D. I also believe MA and MD are Safe D, with MD moving to that after the primary.

The governor’s races this cycle is where I have the most uncertainty. Many races that are not expected to be close will probably end up being close. As a result, I could end up getting the winners wrong, even if the result is close to what I think.

If there's one place I have to say I'll eat crow for previous statements I've made, it may be Mastriano in Pennsylvania. Although I strongly suspect he'll do much better than almost everybody anticipates, it's still a reach to win given the Republican Party completely abandoned him and he literally hasn't been running ads or doing anything. I think we'll see that it was a winnable race if they had tried, and it'll be a good test case for how much spending really matters in a nationalized environment.

Overall, the widespread delusion of a Dem-friendly midterm that has dominated in the election space for months now is about to take a real beating. Prepare yourselves. Months and months of awful polls, biased narratives, and wishful conclusions from a few special elections, all supported by a barrage of monolithic "experts" are going to come crashing down on November 8th.

I’m only going to make 1 more prediction post right before election day, but there’s more to say and I’ll make it known then. Past that, I'm unlikely to continue posting into 2023 and 2024.

Please come back.