Key U.S. Senate & Gubernatorial Race Predictions

[Senator-elect Spark]

U.S. Senate

AL: Katie Britt (R) 63% , Will Boyd (D): 35%
AK: Lisa Murkowski (R) 55%, Kelly Tshibaka (R) 45%
AZ: Blake Masters (R): 50.5%, Mark Kelly (D, inc.) 48.5%
AR: John Boozman (R): 60%, Natalie James (D) 36%
CA: Alex Padilla (D): 63%, Mark Meuser (R) 36%
CO: Michael Bennet (D, inc.) 52%, Ron Hanks (R): 45%
CT: Richard Blumenthal (D, inc.) 61%, Leora Levy (R): 35%
FL: Marco Rubio (R, inc.) 52%, Val Demings (D): 44%
GA: Raphael Warnock (D, inc.) 49%, Hershel Walker (R): 47.5%
HI: Brian Schatz (R) 72%, Bob McDermott (R) 26%
IA: Chuck Grassley (R, inc.) 52%, Michael Franken (D): 43%
ID: Mike Crapo (R, inc.) 68%, David Roth (D): 24%
IL: Tammy Duckworth (D, inc.) 53%, Kathy Salvi (R) 44%
IN: Todd Young (R, inc.) 56% , Thomas McDermott Jr. (D) 40%
KS: Jerry Moran (R, inc.) 63% , Mark Holland (D) 31%
KY: Rand Paul (R, inc.) 62%, Charles Booker (D): 36%
LA: John Kennedy (R, inc.) 53%, Gary Chambers Jr. (D) 20%
MD: Chris Van Hollen (D, inc.) 60%, Chris Chafee (R) 36%
MO: Eric Schmitt (R) 56%, Lucas Kunce (D) 42%
NV: Adam Laxalt (R) 48.5%, Catherine Cortez-Masto (D, inc.): 46.5%
NY: Chuck Schumer (D, inc.) 68%, Aleksander Mici 28%
NH: Maggie Hassan (D, inc.) 49.7%, Donald Bolduc (R): 46.5%
NC: Ted Budd (R) 50.5%, Cheri Beasley (D): 47.5%
ND: John Hoeven (R, inc.) 81%, Katrina Christensen (D) 18%
OH: J.D. Vance (R) 55%, Tim Ryan (D): 44%
OK (regular): James Lankford (R, inc.) 69%,, Madison Horn 28%
OK (special): Markwayne Mullen (R) 67%,, Kendra Horn (D): 31%
OR: Ron Wyden (D, inc.) 65%, Jo Rae Perkins (R) 34%
PA: Mehmet Oz (R) 48.4%, John Fetterman (D) 48.1%
SC: Tim Scott (R, inc.) 61%, Krystle Matthews (D): 36%
SD: John Thune (R, inc.) 71%,   Brian Bengs (D): 26%
UT: Evan McMullin (I): 50% Mike Lee (R, inc.) 47%
VT: Peter Welch (D) 61% Christina Nolan (R): 28%
WA: Patty Murray (D) 58% Tiffany Smiley (R): 41%
WI: Ron Johnson (R, inc.) 51%, Mandela Barnes (D): 46%


Governor
AL: Kay Ivey (R) 67%, Yolanda Flowers 32%
AR: Sarah Huckabee Sanders 65%, Chris Jones (D) 33%
AZ: Karri Lake (R) 49%, Katie Hobbs (D) 46%
AK: Mike Dunleavy (R, inc.) 51%, Bill Walker (I) 48%
CA: Gavin Newsom (D, inc.) 61%, Brian Dahle (R): 38%
CO: Jared Polis (D, inc.) 54%, Heidi Ganahl: 45%
CT: Ned Lamont (D, inc.) 52%, Bob Stefanoski (R): 47%
FL: Ron DeSantis (R, inc.) 51%, Charlie Crist (D): 46%
GA: Brian Kemp (R): 52%, Stacey Abrams: 45%
HI: Josh Green (D): 65%, Duke Aiona 33%
ID: Brad Little (R) 68%, Stephen Heidt 30%
IL: J.B. Pritzker (D, inc.): 56%, Darren Bailey (R): 42%
IA: Kim Reynolds (R, inc.): 57%, Deidre DeJear (D): 42%
KS: Derek Schmidt (R): 51%, Laura Kelly (D, inc.): 44%
MA: Maura Healey (D): 64%, Geoff Diehl (R): 32%
MD: Wes Moore (D): 56%, Daniel Cox 42%
ME: Janet Mills (D, inc.): 49.5%, Paul LePage (R): 46.5%
MI: Gretchen Whitmer (D, inc.): 50.5%, Tudor Dixon (R): 48.5%
MN: Tim Walz (D, inc.): 49%, Scott Jensen: 46.5%
NE: Jim Pillen: 61%, Carol Blood (D): 38%
NH: Chris Sununu (R): 71%, Tom Sherman (D): 26%
NV: Joe Lombardo (R): 48%, Steve Sisolak (D, inc.): 45%
NM: Michelle Lujan-Grisham (D, inc.): 55%, Marc Ronchetti (R): 44%
NY: Kathy Hochul (D, inc.): 52%, Lee Zeldin (R): 44%
OH: Mike DeWine (R): 56%, Nan Whaley (D): 38%
OK: Kevin Stitt (R): 64%, Joy Hofmeister (D): 30%
OR: Christine Drazan (R): 39%, Tina Kotek (D): 35%, Betsy Johnson (I) 21%
PA: Josh Shapiro (D): 51%, Doug Mastriano (R): 45%
RI: Daniel McKee (D, inc.): 61%, Ashley Kalus 36%
SC: Henry McMaster (R, inc.): 56%, Joe Cunningham (D): 42%
SD: Kristi Noem (R, inc.): 54%, Jamie Smith (D): 45%
TX: Greg Abbott (R, inc.): 53%, Beto O’Rourke (D): 44%
VT: Phil Scott (R, inc.): 56%, Doug Racine (D): 42%
WI: Tim Michels (R): 51.6%, Tony Evers (D, inc.): 47.3%
WY: Mark Gordon (R, inc.): 72%, Chris Ruthfuss (D): 26%