Key U.S. Senate & Gubernatorial Race Predictions

[BushKerry04]

As of 08/08/2022

Pennsylvania
U.S. Senate: Fetterman +1
Governor: Shapiro +5

Michigan
Governor: Whitmer +5

North Carolina
U.S. Senate: Budd +3

Arizona
U.S. Senate: Kelly +1
Governor: Hobbs +3

Georgia
U.S. Senate: Warnock +1
Governor: Kemp +7

Nevada
U.S. Senate: Cortez Masto +0.5
Governor: Lombardo +1

New Hampshire
U.S. Senate:
With Bolduc: Hassan +6
With Morse: Hassan +2
Governor: Sununu +27

Ohio
U.S. Senate: Vance +3
Governor: DeWine +12

Wisconsin
U.S. Senator: Barnes +0.1
Governor:
With Kleefisch: Kleefisch +1
With Michels: Evers +2

Colorado
Governor: Polis +10
U.S. Senate: Bennett +2

Florida
Governor: DeSantis +7
U.S. Senate: Rubio +10

Texas
Governor: Abbott +17

Illinois
U.S. Senate: Duckworth +18
Governor: Pritzker +20

Maryland
U.S. Senate: Van Hollen +23
Governor: Moore +30

Vermont
U.S. Senate: Welch +18
Governor: Scott +42

Massachussetts
Governor: Healey +25

Maine
Governor: Mills +7

Washington
U.S. Senate: Murray +8

Alaska
U.S. Senate: Murkowski +5

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lombardo is behind in every poll and so is Vance and Budd

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Senate
AZ Masters +1(FLIP)
CO Bennet +6
FL Rubio +9
GA Warnock +3
NV Laxalt +6(FLIP)
NH Bolduc -2
WI Rojo +4
NC Budd +10
OH Vance +6
PA Fetterman+5(FLIP)
Governor
CO Polis +10
FL DeSantis +11
IL Pritzker +8-9
GA Kemp +8
ME LePage +3(FLIP)
MI Whitmer +3
MN Walz + 2
NM Ronchetti +0(FLIP)
OR Drazan +2(FLIP)
PA Shapiro +4
KS Kelly +1
WI Michels +4(FLIP)
NV Lombardo +10(FLIP)
AZ Lake +4
I've changed my mind on MI. Dixon seems easier to paint as a right winger than Lake, who's more of a trumpist/populist type

[Xing]

I’ll just leave my “almost final” (maybe?) predictions here:

Senate

Alaska: Safe R/Lean Murkowski
Murkowski +3

Arizona: Toss-Up
Masters +0.5

Colorado: Likely D
Bennet +7

Georgia: Lean D
Warnock +2.5

Nevada: Toss-Up
Laxalt +1.5

New Hampshire: Lean D
Hassan +5

North Carolina: Likely R
Budd +5.5

Ohio: Likely R
Vance +7

Pennsylvania: Toss-Up
Oz +1

Wisconsin: Lean R
Johnson +4.5

Governor

Arizona: Lean R
Lake +4

Connecticut: Likely D
Lamont +8

Georgia: Likely R
Kemp +5.5

Kansas: Lean R
Schmidt +3.5

Maine: Lean D
Mills +4

Michigan: Lean D
Whitmer +3

Minnesota: Lean D
Walz +5

Nevada: Toss-Up
Lombardo +2

New Mexico: Lean D
Lujan Grisham +3.5

Oregon: Lean D
Kotek +2.5

Pennsylvania: Likely D
Shapiro +6

Rhode Island: Likely D
McKee +8.5

Wisconsin: Toss-Up
Michels +1.5

My specific predictions for Washington are that Murray wins by 11.5 (Safe D), Schrier by 2 (Lean D), and Kent by 6.5 (Likely R.)

[Southern Reactionary Dem]

Pennsylvania
U.S. Senate: Fetterman +1
Governor: Shapiro +4

Michigan
Governor: Whitmer +3

North Carolina
U.S. Senate: Budd +4

Arizona
U.S. Senate: Kelly +2
Governor: Lake +2

Georgia
U.S. Senate: Warnock +1
Governor: Kemp +5

Nevada
U.S. Senate: Laxalt +2
Governor: Lombardo +3

New Hampshire
U.S. Senate: Hassan +5
Governor: Sununu +24

Ohio
U.S. Senate: Vance +7
Governor: DeWine +18

Wisconsin
U.S. Senator: Johnson +2
Governor: Michels +1

Colorado
Governor: Polis +11
U.S. Senate: Bennett +7

Florida
Governor: DeSantis +8
U.S. Senate: Rubio +12

Texas
Governor: Abbott +12

Illinois
U.S. Senate: Duckworth +17
Governor: Pritzker +22

Maryland
U.S. Senate: Van Hollen +20
Governor: Moore +20

Vermont
U.S. Senate: Welch +25
Governor: Scott +40

Massachussetts
Governor: Healey +20

Maine
Governor: Mills +1

Washington
U.S. Senate: Murray +15

Alaska
U.S. Senate: Murkowski +7

[ElectionsGuy]

Senate



Safe D: 44
Likely D: 2
Lean D: 0
Toss-Up/Tilt D: 1
Toss-Up/Tilt R: 2
Lean R: 2
Likely R: 2
Safe R: 47

Dems: 47
Reps: 53 ✓

Since I haven't posted on this forum in months, I'm going to detail any rating changes that I would've made in that time span.

Alaska: 53.5% Murkowski, 46.5% Tshibaka (Safe R, Lean Murkowski --> Likely Murkowski (Aug))
Arizona: 49.5% Masters, 48.5% Kelly (Lean R --> Tilt R (Sep) (possibly lean R again))
Colorado: 52.0% Bennet, 46.5% O’Dea (Lean D --> Likely D (Sep))
Florida: 54.5% Rubio, 44.5% Demings (Safe R consistently)
Georgia: 48.5% Walker, 48.0% Warnock (Likely Runoff) (Lean R --> Tilt R (Oct))
   If Runoff: 51.0% Walker, 49.0% Warnock
Nevada: 51.0% Laxalt, 46.5% Cortez-Masto (Lean R consistently)
New Hampshire: 49.5% Hassan, 48.0% Bolduc (Tilt D --> Lean D (Sep) --> Tilt D (Oct))
North Carolina: 53.0% Budd, 45.5% Beasley (Likely R consistently)
Ohio: 55.5% Vance, 44.5% Ryan (Safe R consistently)
Pennsylvania: 50.5% Oz, 47.0% Fetterman (Lean R --> Tilt R (Jul) --> Lean R (Oct))
Washington: 54.5% Murray, 45.5% Smiley (Likely D consistently)
Wisconsin: 53.0% Johnson, 47.0% Barnes (Lean R --> Likely R (Sep))

Overall Rating: Lean R (around 80% chance R’s take Senate)

OH, FL, UT and IA are not competitive. Ohio and Utah will have by far the worst polls of the cycle, followed by Pennsylvania. Wisconsin and Florida will actually be not too bad compared to others, but will still underestimate R’s. I also previously had IL as “Likely D”. While I think it’s Safe D now, don’t be surprised if the margin gets to single digits. Same with Connecticut and other medium-tier blue states. I also suspect Hochul's weak performance in NY will bring down Schumer's % below 60%.

Any Democrat polling under 49% is more likely than not to lose. Many Democrats have 1-4% leads, but it’s typically 46-44 or 47-46. That’s almost always a bad sign in our modern era, especially for a bad midterm year. In some cases, we’ve even see the raw average % overestimate Democrats in 2020, so that could happen too.

Governors



Alaska: 54.0% Dunleavy, 46.0% Gara (Likely R consistently)
Arizona: 52.5% Lake, 47.5% Hobbs (Lean R consistently)
Connecticut: 55.0% Lamont, 44.5% Stefanowski (Likely D consistently)
Florida: 55.5% DeSantis, 44.0% Crist (Safe R consistently)
Georgia: 53.0% Kemp, 45.5% Abrams (Lean R --> Likely R (Aug))
Illinois: 54.5% Pritzker, 44.5% Baily (Likely D consistently)
Kansas: 52.0% Schmidt, 45.5% Kelly (Lean R consistently)
Maine: 50.0% Mills, 48.5% LePage (Tilt D consistently)
Michigan: 49.5% Dixon, 49.5% Whitmer (Tilt R --> Lean D (Sep) --> Tilt D (Oct) --> Tilt R (Oct))
Minnesota: 50.5% Walz, 47.0% Jensen (Lean D (possibility Tilt D later))
Nevada: 51.0% Lombardo, 46.0% Sisolak (Lean R consistently)
New York: 54.0% Hochul, 46.0% Zeldin (Safe D --> Likely D)
New Mexico: 50.0% Grisham, 49.0% Ronchetti (Lean D --> Tilt D)
Oregon: 45.5% Kotek, 45.0% Drazan (Lean D --> Tilt D (Sep))
Pennsylvania: 50.5% Shapiro, 48.5% Mastriano (Lean R --> Tilt R (Aug) --> Lean D (Oct) --> Tilt D (Oct))
Rhode Island: 56.0% McKee, 43.0% Kalus (Likely D consistently)
Texas: 55.5% Abbott, 43.0% O’Rourke (Safe R consistently)
Wisconsin: 52.0% Michels, 47.5% Evers (Lean R consistently)

OK is NOT competitive. Prepare for MASSIVE polling errors in several governor’s races, especially in the Midwest and blue-leaning states. Pennsylvania, Michigan (which people are already hedging), Maine, and New Mexico come to mind). I previously had CO as “Likely D”, now think it’s Safe D. I also believe MA and MD are Safe D, with MD moving to that after the primary.

The governor’s races this cycle is where I have the most uncertainty. Many races that are not expected to be close will probably end up being close. As a result, I could end up getting the winners wrong, even if the result is close to what I think.

If there's one place I have to say I'll eat crow for previous statements I've made, it may be Mastriano in Pennsylvania. Although I strongly suspect he'll do much better than almost everybody anticipates, it's still a reach to win given the Republican Party completely abandoned him and he literally hasn't been running ads or doing anything. I think we'll see that it was a winnable race if they had tried, and it'll be a good test case for how much spending really matters in a nationalized environment.

Overall, the widespread delusion of a Dem-friendly midterm that has dominated in the election space for months now is about to take a real beating. Prepare yourselves. Months and months of awful polls, biased narratives, and wishful conclusions from a few special elections, all supported by a barrage of monolithic "experts" are going to come crashing down on November 8th.

I’m only going to make 1 more prediction post right before election day, but there’s more to say and I’ll make it known then. Past that, I'm unlikely to continue posting into 2023 and 2024.

[heatcharger]

Thank you goat.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I'd be happy to explain my prediction. But for now, all I will say is this. People still do care about certain things(lockdowns, Floyd riots etc). It depends on the magnitude and how it effects someone's life

[bagelman]

Here's my normie Atlas prediction, ready to be crushed by the red wave.

I'd be happy to explain my prediction. But for now, all I will say is this. People still do care about certain things(lockdowns, Floyd riots etc). It depends on the magnitude and how it effects someone's life

Why do you have FL as competitive in a year where Minnesota flips red? What are you seeing in Minnesota that we aren't?

[Del Tachi]

Senate



Safe D: 44
Likely D: 2
Lean D: 0
Toss-Up/Tilt D: 1
Toss-Up/Tilt R: 2
Lean R: 2
Likely R: 2
Safe R: 47

Dems: 47
Reps: 53 ✓

Since I haven't posted on this forum in months, I'm going to detail any rating changes that I would've made in that time span.

Alaska: 53.5% Murkowski, 46.5% Tshibaka (Safe R, Lean Murkowski --> Likely Murkowski (Aug))
Arizona: 49.5% Masters, 48.5% Kelly (Lean R --> Tilt R (Sep) (possibly lean R again))
Colorado: 52.0% Bennet, 46.5% O’Dea (Lean D --> Likely D (Sep))
Florida: 54.5% Rubio, 44.5% Demings (Safe R consistently)
Georgia: 48.5% Walker, 48.0% Warnock (Likely Runoff) (Lean R --> Tilt R (Oct))
   If Runoff: 51.0% Walker, 49.0% Warnock
Nevada: 51.0% Laxalt, 46.5% Cortez-Masto (Lean R consistently)
New Hampshire: 49.5% Hassan, 48.0% Bolduc (Tilt D --> Lean D (Sep) --> Tilt D (Oct))
North Carolina: 53.0% Budd, 45.5% Beasley (Likely R consistently)
Ohio: 55.5% Vance, 44.5% Ryan (Safe R consistently)
Pennsylvania: 50.5% Oz, 47.0% Fetterman (Lean R --> Tilt R (Jul) --> Lean R (Oct))
Washington: 54.5% Murray, 45.5% Smiley (Likely D consistently)
Wisconsin: 53.0% Johnson, 47.0% Barnes (Lean R --> Likely R (Sep))

Overall Rating: Lean R (around 80% chance R’s take Senate)

OH, FL, UT and IA are not competitive. Ohio and Utah will have by far the worst polls of the cycle, followed by Pennsylvania. Wisconsin and Florida will actually be not too bad compared to others, but will still underestimate R’s. I also previously had IL as “Likely D”. While I think it’s Safe D now, don’t be surprised if the margin gets to single digits. Same with Connecticut and other medium-tier blue states. I also suspect Hochul's weak performance in NY will bring down Schumer's % below 60%.

Any Democrat polling under 49% is more likely than not to lose. Many Democrats have 1-4% leads, but it’s typically 46-44 or 47-46. That’s almost always a bad sign in our modern era, especially for a bad midterm year. In some cases, we’ve even see the raw average % overestimate Democrats in 2020, so that could happen too.

Governors



Alaska: 54.0% Dunleavy, 46.0% Gara (Likely R consistently)
Arizona: 52.5% Lake, 47.5% Hobbs (Lean R consistently)
Connecticut: 55.0% Lamont, 44.5% Stefanowski (Likely D consistently)
Florida: 55.5% DeSantis, 44.0% Crist (Safe R consistently)
Georgia: 53.0% Kemp, 45.5% Abrams (Lean R --> Likely R (Aug))
Illinois: 54.5% Pritzker, 44.5% Baily (Likely D consistently)
Kansas: 52.0% Schmidt, 45.5% Kelly (Lean R consistently)
Maine: 50.0% Mills, 48.5% LePage (Tilt D consistently)
Michigan: 49.5% Dixon, 49.5% Whitmer (Tilt R --> Lean D (Sep) --> Tilt D (Oct) --> Tilt R (Oct))
Minnesota: 50.5% Walz, 47.0% Jensen (Lean D (possibility Tilt D later))
Nevada: 51.0% Lombardo, 46.0% Sisolak (Lean R consistently)
New York: 54.0% Hochul, 46.0% Zeldin (Safe D --> Likely D)
New Mexico: 50.0% Grisham, 49.0% Ronchetti (Lean D --> Tilt D)
Oregon: 45.5% Kotek, 45.0% Drazan (Lean D --> Tilt D (Sep))
Pennsylvania: 50.5% Shapiro, 48.5% Mastriano (Lean R --> Tilt R (Aug) --> Lean D (Oct) --> Tilt D (Oct))
Rhode Island: 56.0% McKee, 43.0% Kalus (Likely D consistently)
Texas: 55.5% Abbott, 43.0% O’Rourke (Safe R consistently)
Wisconsin: 52.0% Michels, 47.5% Evers (Lean R consistently)

OK is NOT competitive. Prepare for MASSIVE polling errors in several governor’s races, especially in the Midwest and blue-leaning states. Pennsylvania, Michigan (which people are already hedging), Maine, and New Mexico come to mind). I previously had CO as “Likely D”, now think it’s Safe D. I also believe MA and MD are Safe D, with MD moving to that after the primary.

The governor’s races this cycle is where I have the most uncertainty. Many races that are not expected to be close will probably end up being close. As a result, I could end up getting the winners wrong, even if the result is close to what I think.

If there's one place I have to say I'll eat crow for previous statements I've made, it may be Mastriano in Pennsylvania. Although I strongly suspect he'll do much better than almost everybody anticipates, it's still a reach to win given the Republican Party completely abandoned him and he literally hasn't been running ads or doing anything. I think we'll see that it was a winnable race if they had tried, and it'll be a good test case for how much spending really matters in a nationalized environment.

Overall, the widespread delusion of a Dem-friendly midterm that has dominated in the election space for months now is about to take a real beating. Prepare yourselves. Months and months of awful polls, biased narratives, and wishful conclusions from a few special elections, all supported by a barrage of monolithic "experts" are going to come crashing down on November 8th.

I’m only going to make 1 more prediction post right before election day, but there’s more to say and I’ll make it known then. Past that, I'm unlikely to continue posting into 2023 and 2024.

Please come back. 

[bagelman]

My normie senatorial prediction. ElectionsGuy will probably crush me under the red wave. I don't know why ElectionsGuy left, even if he disagrees with me it would've been nice to have him posting.

[Utah Neolib]

Pennsylvania
U.S. Senate: Oz >1
Governor: Shapiro +4.1

Michigan
Governor: Whitmer +1

North Carolina
U.S. Senate: Budd +4.9

Arizona
U.S. Senate: Kelly >1
Governor: Lake +3.6

Georgia
U.S. Senate, November: Walker +1
US Senate, December runoff: Warnock +3
Governor: Kemp +5.9

Nevada
U.S. Senate: Laxalt +2
Governor: Lombardo +4

New Hampshire
U.S. Senate: Hassan +3
Governor: Sununu +25

Ohio
U.S. Senate: Vance +7
Governor: DeWine +15

Wisconsin
U.S. Senator: Johnson +6
Governor: Michels +4

Colorado
Governor: Polis +15
U.S. Senate: Bennett +7

Florida
Governor: DeSantis +10
U.S. Senate: Rubio +13

Texas
Governor: Abbott +11

Illinois
U.S. Senate: Duckworth +17
Governor: Pritzker +22

Maryland
U.S. Senate: Van Hollen +25
Governor: Moore +30

Vermont
U.S. Senate: Welch +25
Governor: Scott +40

Massachussetts
Governor: Healey +24

Maine
Governor: Mills +4

Washington
U.S. Senate: Murray +9

Alaska
U.S. Senate: Murkowski +5

Kansas
Governor: Kelly +2.5

New Mexico
Governor: Grisham >1

Oregon
Governor: Kotek +1.3

Probably my second to last prediction.

[Mr.Phips]

Senate



Safe D: 44
Likely D: 2
Lean D: 0
Toss-Up/Tilt D: 1
Toss-Up/Tilt R: 2
Lean R: 2
Likely R: 2
Safe R: 47

Dems: 47
Reps: 53 ✓

Since I haven't posted on this forum in months, I'm going to detail any rating changes that I would've made in that time span.

Alaska: 53.5% Murkowski, 46.5% Tshibaka (Safe R, Lean Murkowski --> Likely Murkowski (Aug))
Arizona: 49.5% Masters, 48.5% Kelly (Lean R --> Tilt R (Sep) (possibly lean R again))
Colorado: 52.0% Bennet, 46.5% O’Dea (Lean D --> Likely D (Sep))
Florida: 54.5% Rubio, 44.5% Demings (Safe R consistently)
Georgia: 48.5% Walker, 48.0% Warnock (Likely Runoff) (Lean R --> Tilt R (Oct))
   If Runoff: 51.0% Walker, 49.0% Warnock
Nevada: 51.0% Laxalt, 46.5% Cortez-Masto (Lean R consistently)
New Hampshire: 49.5% Hassan, 48.0% Bolduc (Tilt D --> Lean D (Sep) --> Tilt D (Oct))
North Carolina: 53.0% Budd, 45.5% Beasley (Likely R consistently)
Ohio: 55.5% Vance, 44.5% Ryan (Safe R consistently)
Pennsylvania: 50.5% Oz, 47.0% Fetterman (Lean R --> Tilt R (Jul) --> Lean R (Oct))
Washington: 54.5% Murray, 45.5% Smiley (Likely D consistently)
Wisconsin: 53.0% Johnson, 47.0% Barnes (Lean R --> Likely R (Sep))

Overall Rating: Lean R (around 80% chance R’s take Senate)

OH, FL, UT and IA are not competitive. Ohio and Utah will have by far the worst polls of the cycle, followed by Pennsylvania. Wisconsin and Florida will actually be not too bad compared to others, but will still underestimate R’s. I also previously had IL as “Likely D”. While I think it’s Safe D now, don’t be surprised if the margin gets to single digits. Same with Connecticut and other medium-tier blue states. I also suspect Hochul's weak performance in NY will bring down Schumer's % below 60%.

Any Democrat polling under 49% is more likely than not to lose. Many Democrats have 1-4% leads, but it’s typically 46-44 or 47-46. That’s almost always a bad sign in our modern era, especially for a bad midterm year. In some cases, we’ve even see the raw average % overestimate Democrats in 2020, so that could happen too.

Governors



Alaska: 54.0% Dunleavy, 46.0% Gara (Likely R consistently)
Arizona: 52.5% Lake, 47.5% Hobbs (Lean R consistently)
Connecticut: 55.0% Lamont, 44.5% Stefanowski (Likely D consistently)
Florida: 55.5% DeSantis, 44.0% Crist (Safe R consistently)
Georgia: 53.0% Kemp, 45.5% Abrams (Lean R --> Likely R (Aug))
Illinois: 54.5% Pritzker, 44.5% Baily (Likely D consistently)
Kansas: 52.0% Schmidt, 45.5% Kelly (Lean R consistently)
Maine: 50.0% Mills, 48.5% LePage (Tilt D consistently)
Michigan: 49.5% Dixon, 49.5% Whitmer (Tilt R --> Lean D (Sep) --> Tilt D (Oct) --> Tilt R (Oct))
Minnesota: 50.5% Walz, 47.0% Jensen (Lean D (possibility Tilt D later))
Nevada: 51.0% Lombardo, 46.0% Sisolak (Lean R consistently)
New York: 54.0% Hochul, 46.0% Zeldin (Safe D --> Likely D)
New Mexico: 50.0% Grisham, 49.0% Ronchetti (Lean D --> Tilt D)
Oregon: 45.5% Kotek, 45.0% Drazan (Lean D --> Tilt D (Sep))
Pennsylvania: 50.5% Shapiro, 48.5% Mastriano (Lean R --> Tilt R (Aug) --> Lean D (Oct) --> Tilt D (Oct))
Rhode Island: 56.0% McKee, 43.0% Kalus (Likely D consistently)
Texas: 55.5% Abbott, 43.0% O’Rourke (Safe R consistently)
Wisconsin: 52.0% Michels, 47.5% Evers (Lean R consistently)

OK is NOT competitive. Prepare for MASSIVE polling errors in several governor’s races, especially in the Midwest and blue-leaning states. Pennsylvania, Michigan (which people are already hedging), Maine, and New Mexico come to mind). I previously had CO as “Likely D”, now think it’s Safe D. I also believe MA and MD are Safe D, with MD moving to that after the primary.

The governor’s races this cycle is where I have the most uncertainty. Many races that are not expected to be close will probably end up being close. As a result, I could end up getting the winners wrong, even if the result is close to what I think.

If there's one place I have to say I'll eat crow for previous statements I've made, it may be Mastriano in Pennsylvania. Although I strongly suspect he'll do much better than almost everybody anticipates, it's still a reach to win given the Republican Party completely abandoned him and he literally hasn't been running ads or doing anything. I think we'll see that it was a winnable race if they had tried, and it'll be a good test case for how much spending really matters in a nationalized environment.

Overall, the widespread delusion of a Dem-friendly midterm that has dominated in the election space for months now is about to take a real beating. Prepare yourselves. Months and months of awful polls, biased narratives, and wishful conclusions from a few special elections, all supported by a barrage of monolithic "experts" are going to come crashing down on November 8th.

I’m only going to make 1 more prediction post right before election day, but there’s more to say and I’ll make it known then. Past that, I'm unlikely to continue posting into 2023 and 2024.

The only thing I disagree with you on is Georgia.  I think Warnock wins a runoff.

[Spark]

U.S. Senate

AL: Katie Britt (R) 63% , Will Boyd (D): 35%
AK: Lisa Murkowski (R) 55%, Kelly Tshibaka (R) 45%
AZ: Blake Masters (R): 50.5%, Mark Kelly (D, inc.) 48.5%
AR: John Boozman (R): 60%, Natalie James (D) 36%
CA: Alex Padilla (D): 63%, Mark Meuser (R) 36%
CO: Michael Bennet (D, inc.) 52%, Ron Hanks (R): 45%
CT: Richard Blumenthal (D, inc.) 61%, Leora Levy (R): 35%
FL: Marco Rubio (R, inc.) 52%, Val Demings (D): 44%
GA: Raphael Warnock (D, inc.) 49%, Hershel Walker (R): 47.5%
HI: Brian Schatz (R) 72%, Bob McDermott (R) 26%
IA: Chuck Grassley (R, inc.) 52%, Michael Franken (D): 43%
ID: Mike Crapo (R, inc.) 68%, David Roth (D): 24%
IL: Tammy Duckworth (D, inc.) 53%, Kathy Salvi (R) 44%
IN: Todd Young (R, inc.) 56% , Thomas McDermott Jr. (D) 40%
KS: Jerry Moran (R, inc.) 63% , Mark Holland (D) 31%
KY: Rand Paul (R, inc.) 62%, Charles Booker (D): 36%
LA: John Kennedy (R, inc.) 53%, Gary Chambers Jr. (D) 20%
MD: Chris Van Hollen (D, inc.) 60%, Chris Chafee (R) 36%
MO: Eric Schmitt (R) 56%, Lucas Kunce (D) 42%
NV: Adam Laxalt (R) 48.5%, Catherine Cortez-Masto (D, inc.): 46.5%
NY: Chuck Schumer (D, inc.) 68%, Aleksander Mici 28%
NH: Maggie Hassan (D, inc.) 49.7%, Donald Bolduc (R): 46.5%
NC: Ted Budd (R) 50.5%, Cheri Beasley (D): 47.5%
ND: John Hoeven (R, inc.) 81%, Katrina Christensen (D) 18%
OH: J.D. Vance (R) 55%, Tim Ryan (D): 44%
OK (regular): James Lankford (R, inc.) 69%,, Madison Horn 28%
OK (special): Markwayne Mullen (R) 67%,, Kendra Horn (D): 31%
OR: Ron Wyden (D, inc.) 65%, Jo Rae Perkins (R) 34%
PA: Mehmet Oz (R) 48.4%, John Fetterman (D) 48.1%
SC: Tim Scott (R, inc.) 61%, Krystle Matthews (D): 36%
SD: John Thune (R, inc.) 71%,   Brian Bengs (D): 26%
UT: Evan McMullin (I): 50% Mike Lee (R, inc.) 47%
VT: Peter Welch (D) 61% Christina Nolan (R): 28%
WA: Patty Murray (D) 58% Tiffany Smiley (R): 41%
WI: Ron Johnson (R, inc.) 51%, Mandela Barnes (D): 46%


Governor
AL: Kay Ivey (R) 67%, Yolanda Flowers 32%
AR: Sarah Huckabee Sanders 65%, Chris Jones (D) 33%
AZ: Karri Lake (R) 49%, Katie Hobbs (D) 46%
AK: Mike Dunleavy (R, inc.) 51%, Bill Walker (I) 48%
CA: Gavin Newsom (D, inc.) 61%, Brian Dahle (R): 38%
CO: Jared Polis (D, inc.) 54%, Heidi Ganahl: 45%
CT: Ned Lamont (D, inc.) 52%, Bob Stefanoski (R): 47%
FL: Ron DeSantis (R, inc.) 51%, Charlie Crist (D): 46%
GA: Brian Kemp (R): 52%, Stacey Abrams: 45%
HI: Josh Green (D): 65%, Duke Aiona 33%
ID: Brad Little (R) 68%, Stephen Heidt 30%
IL: J.B. Pritzker (D, inc.): 56%, Darren Bailey (R): 42%
IA: Kim Reynolds (R, inc.): 57%, Deidre DeJear (D): 42%
KS: Derek Schmidt (R): 51%, Laura Kelly (D, inc.): 44%
MA: Maura Healey (D): 64%, Geoff Diehl (R): 32%
MD: Wes Moore (D): 56%, Daniel Cox 42%
ME: Janet Mills (D, inc.): 49.5%, Paul LePage (R): 46.5%
MI: Gretchen Whitmer (D, inc.): 50.5%, Tudor Dixon (R): 48.5%
MN: Tim Walz (D, inc.): 49%, Scott Jensen: 46.5%
NE: Jim Pillen: 61%, Carol Blood (D): 38%
NH: Chris Sununu (R): 71%, Tom Sherman (D): 26%
NV: Joe Lombardo (R): 48%, Steve Sisolak (D, inc.): 45%
NM: Michelle Lujan-Grisham (D, inc.): 55%, Marc Ronchetti (R): 44%
NY: Kathy Hochul (D, inc.): 52%, Lee Zeldin (R): 44%
OH: Mike DeWine (R): 56%, Nan Whaley (D): 38%
OK: Kevin Stitt (R): 64%, Joy Hofmeister (D): 30%
OR: Christine Drazan (R): 39%, Tina Kotek (D): 35%, Betsy Johnson (I) 21%
PA: Josh Shapiro (D): 51%, Doug Mastriano (R): 45%
RI: Daniel McKee (D, inc.): 61%, Ashley Kalus 36%
SC: Henry McMaster (R, inc.): 56%, Joe Cunningham (D): 42%
SD: Kristi Noem (R, inc.): 54%, Jamie Smith (D): 45%
TX: Greg Abbott (R, inc.): 53%, Beto O’Rourke (D): 44%
VT: Phil Scott (R, inc.): 56%, Doug Racine (D): 42%
WI: Tim Michels (R): 51.6%, Tony Evers (D, inc.): 47.3%
WY: Mark Gordon (R, inc.): 72%, Chris Ruthfuss (D): 26%

[South Dakota Democrat]

U.S. Senate

AL: Katie Britt (R) 63% , Will Boyd (D): 35%
AK: Lisa Murkowski (R) 55%, Kelly Tshibaka (R) 45%
AZ: Blake Masters (R): 50.5%, Mark Kelly (D, inc.) 48.5%
AR: John Boozman (R): 60%, Natalie James (D) 36%
CA: Alex Padilla (D): 63%, Mark Meuser (R) 36%
CO: Michael Bennet (D, inc.) 52%, Ron Hanks (R): 45%
CT: Richard Blumenthal (D, inc.) 61%, Leora Levy (R): 35%
FL: Marco Rubio (R, inc.) 52%, Val Demings (D): 44%
GA: Raphael Warnock (D, inc.) 49%, Hershel Walker (R): 47.5%
HI: Brian Schatz (R) 72%, Bob McDermott (R) 26%
IA: Chuck Grassley (R, inc.) 61%, Abby Finkenauer (D): 38%
ID: Mike Crapo (R, inc.) 68%, David Roth (D): 24%
IL: Tammy Duckworth (D, inc.) 53%, Kathy Salvi (R) 44%
IN: Todd Young (R, inc.) 56% , Thomas McDermott Jr. (D) 40%
KS: Jerry Moran (R, inc.) 63% , Mark Holland (D) 31%
KY: Rand Paul (R, inc.) 62%, Charles Booker (D): 36%
LA: John Kennedy (R, inc.) 53%, Gary Chambers Jr. (D) 20%
MD: Chris Van Hollen (D, inc.) 60%, Chris Chafee (R) 36%
MO: Eric Schmitt (R) 56%, Lucas Kunce (D) 42%
NV: Adam Laxalt (R) 48.5%, Catherine Cortez-Masto (D, inc.): 46.5%
NY: Chuck Schumer (D, inc.) 68%, Aleksander Mici 28%
NH: Maggie Hassan (D, inc.) 49.7%, Donald Bolduc (R): 46.5%
NC: Ted Budd (R) 50.5%, Cheri Beasley (D): 47.5%
ND: John Hoeven (R, inc.) 81%, Katrina Christensen (D) 18%
OH: J.D. Vance (R) 55%, Tim Ryan (D): 44%
OK (regular): James Lankford (R, inc.) 69%,, Madison Horn 28%
OK (special): Markwayne Mullen (R) 67%,, Kendra Horn (D): 31%
OR: Ron Wyden (D, inc.) 65%, Jo Rae Perkins (R) 34%
PA: Mehmet Oz (R) 48.4%, John Fetterman (D) 48.1%
SC: Tim Scott (R, inc.) 61%, Krystle Matthews (D): 36%
SD: John Thune (R, inc.) 71%,   Brian Bengs (D): 26%
UT: Evan McMullin (I): 50% Mike Lee (R, inc.) 47%
VT: Peter Welch (D) 61% Christina Nolan (R): 28%
WA: Patty Murray (D) 58% Tiffany Smiley (R): 41%
WI: Ron Johnson (R, inc.) 51%, Mandela Barnes (D): 46%


Governor
AL: Kay Ivey (R) 67%, Yolanda Flowers 32%
AR: Sarah Huckabee Sanders 65%, Chris Jones (D) 33%
AZ: Karri Lake (R) 49%, Katie Hobbs (D) 46%
AK: Mike Dunleavy (R, inc.) 51%, Bill Walker (I) 48%
CA: Gavin Newsom (D, inc.) 61%, Brian Dahle (R): 38%
CO: Jared Polis (D, inc.) 54%, Heidi Ganahl: 45%
CT: Ned Lamont (D, inc.) 52%, Bob Stefanoski (R): 47%
FL: Ron DeSantis (R, inc.) 51%, Charlie Crist (D): 46%
GA: Brian Kemp (R): 52%, Stacey Abrams: 45%
HI: Josh Green (D): 65%, Duke Aiona 33%
ID: Brad Little (R) 68%, Stephen Heidt 30%
IL: J.B. Pritzker (D, inc.): 56%, Darren Bailey (R): 42%
IA: Kim Reynolds (R, inc.): 57%, Deidre DeJear (D): 42%
KS: Derek Schmidt (R): 51%, Laura Kelly (D, inc.): 44%
MA: Maura Healey (D): 64%, Geoff Diehl (R): 32%
MD: Wes Moore (D): 56%, Daniel Cox 42%
ME: Janet Mills (D, inc.): 49.5%, Paul LePage (R): 46.5%
MI: Gretchen Whitmer (D, inc.): 50.5%, Tudor Dixon (R): 48.5%
MN: Tim Walz (D, inc.): 49%, Scott Jensen: 46.5%
NE: Jim Pillen: 61%, Carol Blood (D): 38%
NH: Chris Sununu (R): 71%, Tom Sherman (D): 26%
NV: Joe Lombardo (R): 48%, Steve Sisolak (D, inc.): 45%
NM: Michelle Lujan-Grisham (D, inc.): 55%, Marc Ronchetti (R): 44%
NY: Kathy Hochul (D, inc.): 52%, Lee Zeldin (R): 44%
OH: Mike DeWine (R): 56%, Nan Whaley (D): 38%
OK: Kevin Stitt (R): 64%, Joy Hofmeister (D): 30%
OR: Christine Drazan (R): 39%, Tina Kotek (D): 35%, Betsy Johnson (I) 21%
PA: Josh Shapiro (D): 51%, Doug Mastriano (R): 45%
RI: Daniel McKee (D, inc.): 61%, Ashley Kalus 36%
SC: Henry McMaster (R, inc.): 56%, Joe Cunningham (D): 42%
SD: Kristi Noem (R, inc.): 54%, Jamie Smith (D): 45%
TX: Greg Abbott (R, inc.): 53%, Beto O’Rourke (D): 44%
VT: Phil Scott (R, inc.): 56%, Doug Racine (D): 42%
WI: Tim Michels (R): 51.6%, Tony Evers (D, inc.): 47.3%
WY: Mark Gordon (R, inc.): 72%, Chris Ruthfuss (D): 26%

Finkenauer didn't win the primary.

[DabbingSanta]

Senate: 53-47 Republican majority (flip)

CT: Blumenthal +13
WA: Murray +8
CO: Bennet +5
NH: Hassan +3
AZ: Masters +1 (flip)
GA: Walker +3 (flip)
NV: Laxalt +3 (flip)
PA: Oz +3
NC: Budd +5
WI: Johnson +6
OH: Vance +8
FL: Rubio +12

Gubernatorial: 30 of the 50 states will have Republican governors in 2023

NY: Hochul +14
PA: Shapiro +7
ME: Mills +5
NM: Grisham +5
MN: Walz +3
MI: Whitmer +1
KS: Schmidt +1 (flip)
AZ: Lake +3
NV: Lombardo +3 (flip)
OR: Drazan +3 (flip)
WI: Michels +5 (flip)
GA: Kemp +6
OK: Stitt +12
FL: DeSantis +15

House: 240-195 Republican majority (flip)

[Associate Justice PiT]

Senate: 52-48 Republican majority (flip)

CT: Blumenthal +12
WA: Murray +9
CO: Bennet +7
NH: Hassan +3
AZ: Kelly +1
NV: Laxalt +1.5 (flip)
PA: Oz +2
GA: Walker +3 (flip)
WI: Johnson +5
NC: Budd +6
OH: Vance +8
FL: Rubio +10

Gubernatorial: 30 of the 50 states will have Republican governors in 2023

NY: Hochul +10
PA: Shapiro +8
ME: Mills +7
NM: Grisham +6
MN: Walz +2
MI: Whitmer +0.5
OR: Drazan +1 (flip)
KS: Schmidt +3 (flip)
AZ: Lake +3
NV: Lombardo +3 (flip)
WI: Michels +4 (flip)
GA: Kemp +8
OK: Stitt +14
FL: DeSantis +16

House: 244-191 Republican majority (flip)

[NYDem]

Senate: 52-48 Republican majority (flip)
WA: Murray +10
CO: Bennet +6
NH: Hassan +3
AZ: Kelly +2
PA: Oz +1
GA: Walker +2 (flip)
NV: Laxalt +2 (flip)
WI: Johnson +4
NC: Budd +4
OH: Vance +7
FL: Rubio +9

Gubernatorial: 28 of the 50 states will have Republican governors in 2023
PA: Shapiro +9
NY: Hochul +8
ME: Mills +6
NM: Grisham +5
MN: Walz +5
OR: Kotek +3
MI: Whitmer +2
KS: Kelly +1
NV: Lombardo +1 (flip)
WI: Michels +2 (flip)
AZ: Lake +3
GA: Kemp +10
SC: McMaster +11
OK: Stitt +12
FL: DeSantis +13

House: 229-206 Republican majority (flip)