I think when a lot of folks on the Democratic side talk about an election being stolen, they envision the following scenario:
Arizona ends up being the decisive state and Biden eeks out a narrow victory over Trump. However, Lake, Finchem, Hamadeh, and a GOP legislature collectively refuse to certify the election for Biden and perhaps try and put forwards a slate of electors for Trump.
Ultimately while this would create more chaos and distrust, this would quickly be shut down by the courts as was the case in 2020 where justices on all levels all across the spectrum shut down the big lie. Especially if the Electoral Count Act as passed, it would create a fastrack int he courts to ensure the electors are counted for the appropriate candidate.
In my opinion, we should be focusing on the more realistic ways the election could be tampered with or compromised.
Firstly, mail ballot rejections. A good example of this would be Texas where after the new law was passed, an unprecedented double-digit % of mail ballots were rejected in the recent primary. Most of these rejections were for reasons such as a hypen in a person's name being excluded on their identification, or a slight difference in the way their address was written, not anything malicious. Given that mail voting tends to disproportionately be used by Dems, it's a pretty safe bet to assume overall those rejections would hurt Dems. And much of the time a voter doesn't even know their ballot was rejected.
Another way in which an election could be "stolen" would be things as simple as consolidating voting precincts specifically in heavily Democratic Communities, creating super long wait times (as we saw a few examples of in 2020).
And finally, outright changing how electoral votes are allocated. Splitting votes by CDs in GA like how ME and NE do it would mean even a solid Biden win in the state might only get him 6 of the 16 EVs.
Maybe these tactics only end up shifting the election by 0.5% in Trump's favor in a few states but ina close election that could really matter. And once an election is over it's over; it's hard to go back and litigate how an election was run when an election has already happened.
The GOP has weaponized legitimate discussions around things such as voter ID and different voting methods to try and justify changes to the rules designed to favor them, even if ever so slightly. This is the real threat for 2024, and could move the needle in a close election. And these sorts of things would be much harder to successfully litigate given in many cases it technically does have legal standing.
IMO this is the biggest risk. Probably wouldn't be Georgia though since this implies a Kemp reelection, in which case GA Republicans would likely believe they could still win statewide in 2024. That's the trouble with this kind of EV reallocation- if a party did well enough to win a trifecta, it likely believes it will also win that state in the next presidential election.
So there would have to be a "surprise" GOP trifecta in a state they haven't won since the Obama era or earlier for this to be a real risk. The most obvious possibility this cycle is VA.
