The 2024 election can be stolen, but not in the way we think.
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2024 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: Likely Voter, GeorgiaModerate, KoopaDaQuick)
  The 2024 election can be stolen, but not in the way we think.
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Author Topic: The 2024 election can be stolen, but not in the way we think.  (Read 312 times)
ProgressiveModerate
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« on: August 06, 2022, 02:01:49 PM »
« edited: August 06, 2022, 08:08:46 PM by ProgressiveModerate »

I think when a lot of folks on the Democratic side talk about an election being stolen, they envision the following scenario:

Arizona ends up being the decisive state and Biden eeks out a narrow victory over Trump. However, Lake, Finchem, Hamadeh, and a GOP legislature collectively refuse to certify the election for Biden and perhaps try and put forwards a slate of electors for Trump.

Ultimately while this would create more chaos and distrust, this would quickly be shut down by the courts as was the case in 2020 where justices on all levels all across the spectrum shut down the big lie. Especially if the Electoral Count Act as passed, it would create a fastrack int he courts to ensure the electors are counted for the appropriate candidate.

In my opinion, we should be focusing on the more realistic ways the election could be tampered with or compromised.

Firstly, mail ballot rejections. A good example of this would be Texas where after the new law was passed, an unprecedented double-digit % of mail ballots were rejected in the recent primary. Most of these rejections were for reasons such as a hypen in a person's name being excluded on their identification, or a slight difference in the way their address was written, not anything malicious. Given that mail voting tends to disproportionately be used by Dems, it's a pretty safe bet to assume overall those rejections would hurt Dems. And much of the time a voter doesn't even know their ballot was rejected.

Another way in which an election could be "stolen" would be things as simple as consolidating voting precincts specifically in heavily Democratic Communities, creating super long wait times (as we saw a  few examples of in 2020).

Even just an effort by Rs to get poll workers with an agenda can pose a threat.

And finally, outright changing how electoral votes are allocated. Splitting votes by CDs in GA like how ME and NE do it would mean even a solid Biden win in the state might only get him 6 of the 16 EVs.

Maybe these tactics only end up shifting the election by 0.5% in Trump's favor in a few states but ina  close election that could really matter. And once an election is over it's over; it's hard to go back and litigate how an election was run when an election has already happened.

The GOP has weaponized legitimate discussions around things such as voter ID and different voting methods to try and justify changes to the rules designed to favor them, even if ever so slightly. This is the real threat for 2024, and could move the needle in a close election. And these sorts of things would be much harder to successfully litigate given in many cases it technically does have legal standing.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #1 on: August 06, 2022, 02:05:08 PM »

I think when a lot of folks on the Democratic side talk about an election being stolen, they envision the following scenario:

Arizona ends up being the decisive state and Biden eeks out a narrow victory over Trump. However, Lake, Finchem, Hamadeh, and a GOP legislature collectively refuse to certify the election for Biden and perhaps try and put forwards a slate of electors for Trump.

Ultimately while this would create more chaos and distrust, this would quickly be shut down by the courts as was the case in 2020 where justices on all levels all across the spectrum shut down the big lie. Especially if the Electoral Count Act as passed, it would create a fastrack int he courts to ensure the electors are counted for the appropriate candidate.

In my opinion, we should be focusing on the more realistic ways the election could be tampered with or compromised.

Firstly, mail ballot rejections. A good example of this would be Texas where after the new law was passed, an unprecedented double-digit % of mail ballots were rejected in the recent primary. Most of these rejections were for reasons such as a hypen in a person's name being excluded on their identification, or a slight difference in the way their address was written, not anything malicious. Given that mail voting tends to disproportionately be used by Dems, it's a pretty safe bet to assume overall those rejections would hurt Dems. And much of the time a voter doesn't even know their ballot was rejected.

Another way in which an election could be "stolen" would be things as simple as consolidating voting precincts specifically in heavily Democratic Communities, creating super long wait times (as we saw a  few examples of in 2020).

And finally, outright changing how electoral votes are allocated. Splitting votes by CDs in GA like how ME and NE do it would mean even a solid Biden win in the state might only get him 6 of the 16 EVs.

Maybe these tactics only end up shifting the election by 0.5% in Trump's favor in a few states but ina  close election that could really matter. And once an election is over it's over; it's hard to go back and litigate how an election was run when an election has already happened.

The GOP has weaponized legitimate discussions around things such as voter ID and different voting methods to try and justify changes to the rules designed to favor them, even if ever so slightly. This is the real threat for 2024, and could move the needle in a close election. And these sorts of things would be much harder to successfully litigate given in many cases it technically does have legal standing.

Letís not assume the nominees will be Biden and Trump again. Iím not sure Republicans willl go out of their way to steal an election for DeSantis.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #2 on: August 06, 2022, 02:08:31 PM »

I think when a lot of folks on the Democratic side talk about an election being stolen, they envision the following scenario:

Arizona ends up being the decisive state and Biden eeks out a narrow victory over Trump. However, Lake, Finchem, Hamadeh, and a GOP legislature collectively refuse to certify the election for Biden and perhaps try and put forwards a slate of electors for Trump.

Ultimately while this would create more chaos and distrust, this would quickly be shut down by the courts as was the case in 2020 where justices on all levels all across the spectrum shut down the big lie. Especially if the Electoral Count Act as passed, it would create a fastrack int he courts to ensure the electors are counted for the appropriate candidate.

In my opinion, we should be focusing on the more realistic ways the election could be tampered with or compromised.

Firstly, mail ballot rejections. A good example of this would be Texas where after the new law was passed, an unprecedented double-digit % of mail ballots were rejected in the recent primary. Most of these rejections were for reasons such as a hypen in a person's name being excluded on their identification, or a slight difference in the way their address was written, not anything malicious. Given that mail voting tends to disproportionately be used by Dems, it's a pretty safe bet to assume overall those rejections would hurt Dems. And much of the time a voter doesn't even know their ballot was rejected.

Another way in which an election could be "stolen" would be things as simple as consolidating voting precincts specifically in heavily Democratic Communities, creating super long wait times (as we saw a  few examples of in 2020).

And finally, outright changing how electoral votes are allocated. Splitting votes by CDs in GA like how ME and NE do it would mean even a solid Biden win in the state might only get him 6 of the 16 EVs.

Maybe these tactics only end up shifting the election by 0.5% in Trump's favor in a few states but ina  close election that could really matter. And once an election is over it's over; it's hard to go back and litigate how an election was run when an election has already happened.

The GOP has weaponized legitimate discussions around things such as voter ID and different voting methods to try and justify changes to the rules designed to favor them, even if ever so slightly. This is the real threat for 2024, and could move the needle in a close election. And these sorts of things would be much harder to successfully litigate given in many cases it technically does have legal standing.

Letís not assume the nominees will be Biden and Trump again. Iím not sure Republicans willl go out of their way to steal an election for DeSantis.

Fair enough, I just kinda used their names assumign they can be swapped with just about any other D and R.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #3 on: August 06, 2022, 03:27:45 PM »
« Edited: August 06, 2022, 03:38:43 PM by Skill and Chance »

I think when a lot of folks on the Democratic side talk about an election being stolen, they envision the following scenario:

Arizona ends up being the decisive state and Biden eeks out a narrow victory over Trump. However, Lake, Finchem, Hamadeh, and a GOP legislature collectively refuse to certify the election for Biden and perhaps try and put forwards a slate of electors for Trump.

Ultimately while this would create more chaos and distrust, this would quickly be shut down by the courts as was the case in 2020 where justices on all levels all across the spectrum shut down the big lie. Especially if the Electoral Count Act as passed, it would create a fastrack int he courts to ensure the electors are counted for the appropriate candidate.

In my opinion, we should be focusing on the more realistic ways the election could be tampered with or compromised.

Firstly, mail ballot rejections. A good example of this would be Texas where after the new law was passed, an unprecedented double-digit % of mail ballots were rejected in the recent primary. Most of these rejections were for reasons such as a hypen in a person's name being excluded on their identification, or a slight difference in the way their address was written, not anything malicious. Given that mail voting tends to disproportionately be used by Dems, it's a pretty safe bet to assume overall those rejections would hurt Dems. And much of the time a voter doesn't even know their ballot was rejected.

Another way in which an election could be "stolen" would be things as simple as consolidating voting precincts specifically in heavily Democratic Communities, creating super long wait times (as we saw a  few examples of in 2020).

And finally, outright changing how electoral votes are allocated. Splitting votes by CDs in GA like how ME and NE do it would mean even a solid Biden win in the state might only get him 6 of the 16 EVs.

Maybe these tactics only end up shifting the election by 0.5% in Trump's favor in a few states but ina  close election that could really matter. And once an election is over it's over; it's hard to go back and litigate how an election was run when an election has already happened.

The GOP has weaponized legitimate discussions around things such as voter ID and different voting methods to try and justify changes to the rules designed to favor them, even if ever so slightly. This is the real threat for 2024, and could move the needle in a close election. And these sorts of things would be much harder to successfully litigate given in many cases it technically does have legal standing.

IMO this is the biggest risk.  Probably wouldn't be Georgia though since this implies a Kemp reelection, in which case GA Republicans would likely believe they could still win statewide in 2024.  That's the trouble with this kind of EV reallocation- if a party did well enough to win a trifecta, it likely believes it will also win that state in the next presidential election. 

So there would have to be a "surprise" GOP trifecta in a state they haven't won since the Obama era or earlier for this to be a real risk.  The most obvious possibility this cycle is VA.
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All Along The Watchtower
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« Reply #4 on: August 06, 2022, 03:33:23 PM »

Don't give them any ideas. Who knows what kinds of disgusting political operatives lurk/post on this forum.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #5 on: August 06, 2022, 04:27:09 PM »

This could also backfire if, letís say, they rig Arizona, yet Republicans already won legitimately through the rust belt. They stole a state they didnít need.
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« Reply #6 on: August 06, 2022, 04:30:02 PM »

Are you implying that materially changing the laws regulating an election on short notice but within the bounds of political authority would be "stealing" it? What sort of person would say something that?
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #7 on: August 06, 2022, 04:32:20 PM »

I think we have to be worried at every level. But the first scenario you described will only become much more likely once the Supreme Court rules in Moore v. Harper.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #8 on: August 06, 2022, 04:42:42 PM »

I think we have to be worried at every level. But the first scenario you described will only become much more likely once the Supreme Court rules in Moore v. Harper.

Moore v. Harper gives more power to legislatures. It would actually take power away from people like Lake, Finchem, and Mastriano. Also, there are still several establishment Republicans left in all swing state legislatures who would block any shenanigans.

Also Moore v. Harper still doesnít allow meddling after the election.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #9 on: August 06, 2022, 04:57:01 PM »

I think we have to be worried at every level. But the first scenario you described will only become much more likely once the Supreme Court rules in Moore v. Harper.

Moore v. Harper gives more power to legislatures. It would actually take power away from people like Lake, Finchem, and Mastriano. Also, there are still several establishment Republicans left in all swing state legislatures who would block any shenanigans.

Also Moore v. Harper still doesnít allow meddling after the election.

This.  Nothing about ISL allows ex-post-facto changes after the election.  Congress has set an election day and states must abide by the rules they set prior to election day.

At this point, I don't think Dems have much to lose from ISL unless it went so far that governors can't veto election laws.  I don't think that's at stake in Moore v. Harper anyway.
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Spectator
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« Reply #10 on: August 06, 2022, 06:42:13 PM »

If Democrats donít win the Governors races in AZ, PA, MI and WI theyíre ed
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MiddleRoad
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« Reply #11 on: August 06, 2022, 07:39:46 PM »

Are you implying that materially changing the laws regulating an election on short notice but within the bounds of political authority would be "stealing" it? What sort of person would say something that?

Oh I love this. They wonít give you a response though.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #12 on: August 07, 2022, 08:38:42 AM »

Also I want to emphasize the possibility of people, particularly on the right, intentionally working in elections to try and create problems. Imagine the chaos if one poll worker actually does try and destroy ballots in heavily D area or smtg.
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GoTfan
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« Reply #13 on: August 07, 2022, 11:07:05 AM »

Are you implying that materially changing the laws regulating an election on short notice but within the bounds of political authority would be "stealing" it? What sort of person would say something that?

Oh I love this. They wonít give you a response though.

Coup supporters flock together it seems.
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #14 on: August 07, 2022, 11:35:09 PM »

Just a bigger version of the 2018 theft in Georgia will do just fine.
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