Stronger candidate for the GOP: Lake or Mastriano?
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  Stronger candidate for the GOP: Lake or Mastriano?
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Question: Stronger candidate for the GOP: Lake or Mastriano?
#1
Kari Lake
 
#2
Doug Mastriano
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 54

Author Topic: Stronger candidate for the GOP: Lake or Mastriano?  (Read 661 times)
Cyrusman
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« on: August 05, 2022, 04:22:26 PM »

Who would you say is the stronger of the two even if you think neither is a great candidate?
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Spectator
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« Reply #1 on: August 05, 2022, 04:25:45 PM »

Neither are strong relative to the other. Lake probably does better percentage wise just because Arizona has a higher R floor than Pennsylvania.
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AMB1996
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« Reply #2 on: August 05, 2022, 05:46:52 PM »

Has to be Lake, given her name ID and popular reputation.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #3 on: August 05, 2022, 06:08:55 PM »

Lake mostly due to Arizona being a bigger wildcard when it comes to how it may vote this year.

She's supposedly more reserved than Mastriano, according to some, but I have yet to see any indication of that.

I think her name recognition and reputation could actually be a detriment to her if Hobbs exploits it well enough. There was a poster in the main Arizona gubernatorial election thread who detailed how Phoenix area residents like him were familiar with Lake throughout much of her career but found her turn to Trumpian politics be a little head-spinning. It's possible that others may feel this way too and find her phony or opportunistic. But we'll see.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #4 on: August 06, 2022, 12:52:30 AM »

Lake is a longtime news anchor with name recognition and experience in playing an audience (this matters because people vote for a package and not for a set of ideological beliefs), can claim the outsider/celebrity banner for herself, actually manages to stay on message most of the time (whereas Mastriano's campaign - from what Iíve seen - lacks a coherent message and basically just consists of incoherent rambling that can make you feel really uneasy at times), and is also more charismatic than Mastriano (who, letís be honest here, looks incredibly threatening and gives off actual skinhead and neo-Nazi vibes). Democrats have also had more success in PA than AZ at the local level, and Iíd expect that disparity to be amplified in a midterm where presidential/national trends tend to lag a little and local issues and candidates still matter to a great extent (which is why you get results like Scott winning in FL but Democrats holding far more Republican states like WV or MT in 2018, Hogan winning MD-GOV while Kobach loses in KS, etc.). PA also voted to the left of AZ in 2020, and thereís every reason to believe that virtually any other Republican President running in a year with the same fundamentals that Trump was benefiting from/had to navigate would have carried AZ in 2020.

I donít think Lake is really a worse candidate than Jan Brewer was, but I can see how Mastriano would genuinely scare people. AZ-GOV would still be Lean R with Lake in my view, but PA-GOV would be a Toss-up at best with Mastriano, even in a Republican wave.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #5 on: August 06, 2022, 01:58:42 AM »

Lake is a longtime news anchor with name recognition and experience in playing an audience (this matters because people vote for a package and not for a set of ideological beliefs), can claim the outsider/celebrity banner for herself, actually manages to stay on message most of the time (whereas Mastriano's campaign - from what Iíve seen - lacks a coherent message and basically just consists of incoherent rambling that can make you feel really uneasy at times), and is also more charismatic than Mastriano (who, letís be honest here, looks incredibly threatening and gives off actual skinhead and neo-Nazi vibes). Democrats have also had more success in PA than AZ at the local level, and Iíd expect that disparity to be amplified in a midterm where presidential/national trends tend to lag a little and local issues and candidates still matter to a great extent (which is why you get results like Scott winning in FL but Democrats holding far more Republican states like WV or MT in 2018, Hogan winning MD-GOV while Kobach loses in KS, etc.). PA also voted to the left of AZ in 2020, and thereís every reason to believe that virtually any other Republican President running in a year with the same fundamentals that Trump was benefiting from/had to navigate would have carried AZ in 2020.

I donít think Lake is really a worse candidate than Jan Brewer was, but I can see how Mastriano would genuinely scare people. AZ-GOV would still be Lean R with Lake in my view, but PA-GOV would be a Toss-up at best with Mastriano, even in a Republican wave.

Imo, it really depends upon how Lake campaigns over these next few months. She has the possiblity to run on her former status as a news anchor, chill on some of the rhetoric a bit, and really make herself likeable to a lot of folks, particularly those who don't have strong ideological convictions.

On the flip side though, never underestimate some of these candidates abilities on the Republican side to just end up making a fool of themselves. A good recent example in AZ would be McSally who went from a decently likeable conservative female veteran to just a mess. Had she run her 2020 campaign with the same convictions as 2018 she may have been able to hold Kelly closer or even win.

I don't think there's any way in which being a popular news anchor would *hurt* Lake though, it's just really how much she makes it help herself.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #6 on: August 06, 2022, 07:05:36 AM »

There can't be a strong candidate among pair of patented idiots...
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #7 on: August 06, 2022, 06:51:14 PM »

There can't be a strong candidate among pair of patented idiots...

There can be when at least 45-48% or more of voters in their states are patented idiots too.
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Aurelius
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« Reply #8 on: August 06, 2022, 07:09:01 PM »

There can't be a strong candidate among pair of patented idiots...

There can be when at least 45-48% or more of voters in their states are patented idiots too.

hurr durr everyone who disagrees with my vision for America is a patented idiot durrrrrrrr
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #9 on: August 06, 2022, 07:12:49 PM »

There can't be a strong candidate among pair of patented idiots...

There can be when at least 45-48% or more of voters in their states are patented idiots too.

hurr durr everyone who disagrees with my vision for America is a patented idiot durrrrrrrr

When you don't accept basic, objective facts like Lake and Mastriano with their emphasis on the 2020 election being stolen, I'm sorry how does that not make you an idiot? It's not about disagreements. It's as simple and inarguable as math. It's that people are voting for politicians trafficking in very blatant lies.
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Spectator
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« Reply #10 on: August 06, 2022, 09:34:51 PM »

There can't be a strong candidate among pair of patented idiots...

There can be when at least 45-48% or more of voters in their states are patented idiots too.

hurr durr everyone who disagrees with my vision for America is a patented idiot durrrrrrrr

Anyone who voted for Lake of Mastriano in the primary is an idiot, yes. In the general election, probably more an extremist than an idiot for most.
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AMB1996
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« Reply #11 on: August 06, 2022, 10:15:28 PM »

There can't be a strong candidate among pair of patented idiots...

There can be when at least 45-48% or more of voters in their states are patented idiots too.

I love democracy.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #12 on: August 07, 2022, 01:30:41 AM »
« Edited: August 07, 2022, 11:45:58 AM by smoltchanov »

There can't be a strong candidate among pair of patented idiots...

There can be when at least 45-48% or more of voters in their states are patented idiots too.

hurr durr everyone who disagrees with my vision for America is a patented idiot durrrrrrrr

No. I never said these words about McCain and Romney, whom i disagree a lot with. But this particular pair, plus MTG, Boebert and other fanatics - surely, yes. And always will be in my opinion. No other words for them..
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #13 on: August 07, 2022, 01:31:45 AM »

There can't be a strong candidate among pair of patented idiots...

There can be when at least 45-48% or more of voters in their states are patented idiots too.

I love democracy.

And i - dislike fascism, where such candidates lead. Even more then i like democracy...
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« Reply #14 on: August 07, 2022, 08:49:28 PM »

There can't be a strong candidate among pair of patented idiots...

There can be when at least 45-48% or more of voters in their states are patented idiots too.

hurr durr everyone who disagrees with my vision for America is a patented idiot durrrrrrrr

No. I never said these words about McCain and Romney, whom i disagree a lot with. But this particular pair, plus MTG, Boebert and other fanatics - surely, yes. And always will be in my opinion. No other words for them..
Cope and seethe
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« Reply #15 on: August 07, 2022, 08:51:04 PM »

There can't be a strong candidate among pair of patented idiots...

There can be when at least 45-48% or more of voters in their states are patented idiots too.

hurr durr everyone who disagrees with my vision for America is a patented idiot durrrrrrrr

When you don't accept basic, objective facts like Lake and Mastriano with their emphasis on the 2020 election being stolen, I'm sorry how does that not make you an idiot? It's not about disagreements. It's as simple and inarguable as math. It's that people are voting for politicians trafficking in very blatant lies.
So why do you support Stacey Abrams? Why did you spend 4 years promoting the Russia hoax?
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MargieCat
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« Reply #16 on: August 07, 2022, 09:01:29 PM »

Kari is stronger.

She's more charismatic, and she has less scandals than Mastriano. In general, she is less radical than Mastriano.
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Senator Spark
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« Reply #17 on: August 07, 2022, 10:30:42 PM »

Lake. She's marginally more sane and is less scandalous.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #18 on: August 08, 2022, 09:38:33 AM »

Both are gonna lose
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coloradocowboi
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« Reply #19 on: August 08, 2022, 10:52:35 AM »

There can't be a strong candidate among pair of patented idiots...

There can be when at least 45-48% or more of voters in their states are patented idiots too.

hurr durr everyone who disagrees with my vision for America is a patented idiot durrrrrrrr

Itís just hilarious that you conservatives always frame it as ďdisagreement.Ē Good luck disagreeing with the two degrees Celsius of warm weather your ďright to my opinionĒ has now guaranteed us. Iíll feel really bad about condescending to people who believe god made women out of spare ribs while Iím choking on my own co2 Iím sure
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #20 on: August 08, 2022, 10:53:48 AM »

Lake is a longtime news anchor with name recognition and experience in playing an audience (this matters because people vote for a package and not for a set of ideological beliefs), can claim the outsider/celebrity banner for herself, actually manages to stay on message most of the time (whereas Mastriano's campaign - from what Iíve seen - lacks a coherent message and basically just consists of incoherent rambling that can make you feel really uneasy at times), and is also more charismatic than Mastriano (who, letís be honest here, looks incredibly threatening and gives off actual skinhead and neo-Nazi vibes). Democrats have also had more success in PA than AZ at the local level, and Iíd expect that disparity to be amplified in a midterm where presidential/national trends tend to lag a little and local issues and candidates still matter to a great extent (which is why you get results like Scott winning in FL but Democrats holding far more Republican states like WV or MT in 2018, Hogan winning MD-GOV while Kobach loses in KS, etc.). PA also voted to the left of AZ in 2020, and thereís every reason to believe that virtually any other Republican President running in a year with the same fundamentals that Trump was benefiting from/had to navigate would have carried AZ in 2020.

I donít think Lake is really a worse candidate than Jan Brewer was, but I can see how Mastriano would genuinely scare people. AZ-GOV would still be Lean R with Lake in my view, but PA-GOV would be a Toss-up at best with Mastriano, even in a Republican wave.

Imo, it really depends upon how Lake campaigns over these next few months. She has the possiblity to run on her former status as a news anchor, chill on some of the rhetoric a bit, and really make herself likeable to a lot of folks, particularly those who don't have strong ideological convictions.

On the flip side though, never underestimate some of these candidates abilities on the Republican side to just end up making a fool of themselves. A good recent example in AZ would be McSally who went from a decently likeable conservative female veteran to just a mess. Had she run her 2020 campaign with the same convictions as 2018 she may have been able to hold Kelly closer or even win.

I don't think there's any way in which being a popular news anchor would *hurt* Lake though, it's just really how much she makes it help herself.

Given her actions since the primary, I don't see that happening at this point. She's like tripling down at this point on the crazy.
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« Reply #21 on: August 08, 2022, 11:07:04 AM »

Lake, since I still think sheíll win.
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