How the Kansas result changes the GOV landscape...
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October 03, 2022, 12:38:44 PM
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  How the Kansas result changes the GOV landscape...
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #25 on: August 03, 2022, 01:12:06 PM »

Let's Say the whole abortion stuff is going to energize the democrats more than without.


I don't understand how the republicans thought it was a good idea to overturn roe? It's going to be a ton of heavily unpopular abortion ban even in case of rape stuff that will be on the ballot
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DT
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« Reply #26 on: August 03, 2022, 02:36:48 PM »

Honestly, not much. Weíve seen many times how people vote for the Democratic position in referendums while still voting Republican. We saw quite a bit of this in 2014. The problem for Democrats isnít their stances on the issues, itís their image, as well as how ineffective they are at governing.

I'm unsure what you're suggesting here...that the center-right Republicans who voted down the referendum in KS would actually be Democrats if the party had better optics?  Do you not think people can have non-abortion reasons for supporting the GOP? 
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #27 on: August 03, 2022, 03:01:06 PM »

Honestly, not much. Weíve seen many times how people vote for the Democratic position in referendums while still voting Republican. We saw quite a bit of this in 2014. The problem for Democrats isnít their stances on the issues, itís their image, as well as how ineffective they are at governing.

I'm unsure what you're suggesting here...that the center-right Republicans who voted down the referendum in KS would actually be Democrats if the party had better optics?  Do you not think people can have non-abortion reasons for supporting the GOP? 

They definitely can, but by and large we see on many major issues people tend to agree with the Democratic position than the GOP position. The main thing working in the GOP favour is it seems voters tend to trust them more on the economy (which I imagine inflation only reinforces for many) as well as they're very successful both at painting Dems as out of touch and at letting those on the far left represent the entire Dem party

Poll just about any mainstream Dem position it'll get over 55%.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #28 on: August 03, 2022, 05:10:02 PM »
« Edited: August 03, 2022, 05:24:49 PM by Skill and Chance »

This helps Whitmer and Evers meaningfully given the total bans hanging in the balance there.  Probably helps Shapiro in PA, too, even though a ban isn't really in the cards there.  IDK if it helps or hurts Kelly.  The Kansas moderates could either stay angry at R's or alternatively feel safer voting straight ticket R in the fall knowing that state level abortion rights are now safe. 

Bottom line, it looks like there are more soft pro-choice Trump voters than we thought.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #29 on: August 03, 2022, 05:38:26 PM »

This helps Whitmer and Evers meaningfully given the total bans hanging in the balance there.  Probably helps Shapiro in PA, too, even though a ban isn't really in the cards there.  IDK if it helps or hurts Kelly.  The Kansas moderates could either stay angry at R's or alternatively feel safer voting straight ticket R in the fall knowing that state level abortion rights are now safe. 

Bottom line, it looks like there are more soft pro-choice Trump voters than we thought.

huh? If Mastriano wins, the republican state legislature will absolutely pass a ban.
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GALeftist
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« Reply #30 on: August 03, 2022, 05:51:50 PM »

This helps Whitmer and Evers meaningfully given the total bans hanging in the balance there.  Probably helps Shapiro in PA, too, even though a ban isn't really in the cards there.  IDK if it helps or hurts Kelly.  The Kansas moderates could either stay angry at R's or alternatively feel safer voting straight ticket R in the fall knowing that state level abortion rights are now safe. 

Bottom line, it looks like there are more soft pro-choice Trump voters than we thought.

It's honestly not all that surprising to me. Part of the genius of Trump was separating social conservatism from religion. This is kind of hard to explain, but think about people like Rick Santorum. In many ways, they set the tone for the modern GOP in terms of focus on the culture war, but they were and are pretty astoundingly unpopular; most Americans think it's weird to be that religious, even if they could be persuaded to agree with some of his culture war positions for different reasons like racial resentment. Trump successfully ditched the hyper-religiousness, leaving mostly just the bits that were popular.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #31 on: August 03, 2022, 06:43:41 PM »

I'm feeling much more encouraged overall with every type of election happening this year. I still will come short of saying that we'll see a 2002 repeat or anything, but a clear Democratic message has developed in response to Republicans' message of "what do you have to lose by electing us?" And the answer is "a lot" and Democrats can seize upon abortion and the floodgates that the Dobbs decision has opened for shameless Republicans running all across the country.

 GOP candidates became way too cocky about their views on other issues probably due to assuming a red tsunami based on low Democratic turnout, gas prices and inflation, but they can't walk back what many have said they wanted to do about abortion. Hell, I doubt some even bother and remain out of step with what is obviously clearly now the vast majority of Americans. Democrats will respond to that in alarm (at least in most states to Kansas' left) which is always a great political motivator, I am now mostly confident in that. Independents are still the grey area, referendums and voting for candidates are still two separate things, but if economic factors tangibly improve by November I think we could see them more willing to elect Democrats as different issues come to prominence instead, like reproductive rights or the potentially threatened future of contraception and same-sex marriage.

As for specific gubernatorial races I feel like Evers' and Kelly's chances went up-they are still the GOP's best chances for pickups and could still lose, but they have a foil now and a path through appealing to suburbanites. Sharice Davids, in particular, as it pertains to Kansas, ought to be better positioned now too.

Meanwhile I think I am finally convinced that Mastriano will lose, he is basically a living version of an even more extreme version of the Kansas abortion referendum as a Christian nationalist who is also a complete Trump flunky. Whitmer and other Michigan Democrats too, especially with their own referendum which will surely pass and galvanize Demcoratic turnout, are looking favored now too. I really thought Kildee and Slotkin would be sure losers, but they may end up winning now.

I remain unsure about how Arizona and Nevada will go, however. They'll definitely be among closest races of the night.

All other gubernatorial races probably remain holds for the parties currently in power. Upsets were possible in New Mexico and Oregon, but I think the possibilities of that happening has diminished. As long as Democrats run competent enough campaigns, of course, which is never a  given.
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #32 on: August 03, 2022, 06:46:56 PM »


All other gubernatorial races probably remain holds for the parties currently in power. Upsets were possible in New Mexico and Oregon, but I think the possibilities of that happening has diminished. As long as Democrats run competent enough campaigns, of course, which is never a  given.

Oregon is still Tilt D at best especially given Schrader endorsement of Betsy Johnson and the fact that local concerns are causing it to be close this year and not a national wave
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #33 on: August 03, 2022, 06:53:04 PM »

This helps Whitmer and Evers meaningfully given the total bans hanging in the balance there.  Probably helps Shapiro in PA, too, even though a ban isn't really in the cards there.  IDK if it helps or hurts Kelly.  The Kansas moderates could either stay angry at R's or alternatively feel safer voting straight ticket R in the fall knowing that state level abortion rights are now safe. 

Bottom line, it looks like there are more soft pro-choice Trump voters than we thought.

huh? If Mastriano wins, the republican state legislature will absolutely pass a ban.

Take a look at the makeup of the PA state supreme court and their rulings in recent politically charged decisions.
 There's about a 99% chance they would block the ban from ever taking effect.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #34 on: August 03, 2022, 06:58:40 PM »

I'm feeling much more encouraged overall with every type of election happening this year. I still will come short of saying that we'll see a 2002 repeat or anything, but a clear Democratic message has developed in response to Republicans' message of "what do you have to lose by electing us?" And the answer is "a lot" and Democrats can seize upon abortion and the floodgates that the Dobbs decision has opened for shameless Republicans running all across the country.

 GOP candidates became way too cocky about their views on other issues probably due to assuming a red tsunami based on low Democratic turnout, gas prices and inflation, but they can't walk back what many have said they wanted to do about abortion. Hell, I doubt some even bother and remain out of step with what is obviously clearly now the vast majority of Americans. Democrats will respond to that in alarm (at least in most states to Kansas' left) which is always a great political motivator, I am now mostly confident in that. Independents are still the grey area, referendums and voting for candidates are still two separate things, but if economic factors tangibly improve by November I think we could see them more willing to elect Democrats as different issues come to prominence instead, like reproductive rights or the potentially threatened future of contraception and same-sex marriage.

As for specific gubernatorial races I feel like Evers' and Kelly's chances went up-they are still the GOP's best chances for pickups and could still lose, but they have a foil now and a path through appealing to suburbanites. Sharice Davids, in particular, as it pertains to Kansas, ought to be better positioned now too.

Meanwhile I think I am finally convinced that Mastriano will lose, he is basically a living version of an even more extreme version of the Kansas abortion referendum as a Christian nationalist who is also a complete Trump flunky. Whitmer and other Michigan Democrats too, especially with their own referendum which will surely pass and galvanize Demcoratic turnout, are looking favored now too. I really thought Kildee and Slotkin would be sure losers, but they may end up winning now.

I remain unsure about how Arizona and Nevada will go, however. They'll definitely be among closest races of the night.

All other gubernatorial races probably remain holds for the parties currently in power. Upsets were possible in New Mexico and Oregon, but I think the possibilities of that happening has diminished. As long as Democrats run competent enough campaigns, of course, which is never a  given.

I would suggest there's less of a barrier to R pickups in states where this issue is set in stone.  Unlike the Trump 2016/Biden 2020 swing states, there's no way a Governor Drazan or Ronchetti is going to be able to outlaw abortion.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #35 on: August 03, 2022, 07:23:34 PM »

I'm feeling much more encouraged overall with every type of election happening this year. I still will come short of saying that we'll see a 2002 repeat or anything, but a clear Democratic message has developed in response to Republicans' message of "what do you have to lose by electing us?" And the answer is "a lot" and Democrats can seize upon abortion and the floodgates that the Dobbs decision has opened for shameless Republicans running all across the country.

 GOP candidates became way too cocky about their views on other issues probably due to assuming a red tsunami based on low Democratic turnout, gas prices and inflation, but they can't walk back what many have said they wanted to do about abortion. Hell, I doubt some even bother and remain out of step with what is obviously clearly now the vast majority of Americans. Democrats will respond to that in alarm (at least in most states to Kansas' left) which is always a great political motivator, I am now mostly confident in that. Independents are still the grey area, referendums and voting for candidates are still two separate things, but if economic factors tangibly improve by November I think we could see them more willing to elect Democrats as different issues come to prominence instead, like reproductive rights or the potentially threatened future of contraception and same-sex marriage.

As for specific gubernatorial races I feel like Evers' and Kelly's chances went up-they are still the GOP's best chances for pickups and could still lose, but they have a foil now and a path through appealing to suburbanites. Sharice Davids, in particular, as it pertains to Kansas, ought to be better positioned now too.

Meanwhile I think I am finally convinced that Mastriano will lose, he is basically a living version of an even more extreme version of the Kansas abortion referendum as a Christian nationalist who is also a complete Trump flunky. Whitmer and other Michigan Democrats too, especially with their own referendum which will surely pass and galvanize Demcoratic turnout, are looking favored now too. I really thought Kildee and Slotkin would be sure losers, but they may end up winning now.

I remain unsure about how Arizona and Nevada will go, however. They'll definitely be among closest races of the night.

All other gubernatorial races probably remain holds for the parties currently in power. Upsets were possible in New Mexico and Oregon, but I think the possibilities of that happening has diminished. As long as Democrats run competent enough campaigns, of course, which is never a  given.

I would suggest there's less of a barrier to R pickups in states where this issue is set in stone.  Unlike the Trump 2016/Biden 2020 swing states, there's no way a Governor Drazan or Ronchetti is going to be able to outlaw abortion.

Do Democratic voters and other abortion rights advocates want to take that chance though? What if the legislatures were to flip? I don't think voters take the feasibility of abortion bans and restrictions into account. Clearly women are frightened and outraged about the Republican Party and their brand when it comes to abortion in general. It's kind of an affront on principle, even if they're unlikely to be affected in practice. It's the power of fear as a political motivator.

That said, mostly out of caution, I actually have Oregon and New Mexico as lean D at best for now. And Betsy Johnson is a bit of a wildcard in the former. I won't deny that. Note that I aid that the possibility of Republican upsets in them may have diminished, not completely disappeared. I'm still a pessimist at heart, obviously. Maybe it's hedging my bets, but I always try to take everything into consideration with my political predictions.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #36 on: August 03, 2022, 07:36:12 PM »

This helps Whitmer and Evers meaningfully given the total bans hanging in the balance there.  Probably helps Shapiro in PA, too, even though a ban isn't really in the cards there.  IDK if it helps or hurts Kelly.  The Kansas moderates could either stay angry at R's or alternatively feel safer voting straight ticket R in the fall knowing that state level abortion rights are now safe. 

Bottom line, it looks like there are more soft pro-choice Trump voters than we thought.

huh? If Mastriano wins, the republican state legislature will absolutely pass a ban.

Take a look at the makeup of the PA state supreme court and their rulings in recent politically charged decisions.
 There's about a 99% chance they would block the ban from ever taking effect.

Where is the info that they could even block it once the governor signs it? Even if it's possible for them to do so, you don't just leave those things to chance.
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Farmlands
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« Reply #37 on: August 04, 2022, 03:05:15 PM »

It doesn't indicate any shift, truly. The two party primary vote was still 62-38 in favor of the GOP in Kansas. Just further proof that ballot measures like this and minimum wage increases can decisively pass while voters send Republicans to higher office.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #38 on: August 04, 2022, 03:12:32 PM »

It doesn't indicate any shift, truly. The two party primary vote was still 62-38 in favor of the GOP in Kansas. Just further proof that ballot measures like this and minimum wage increases can decisively pass while voters send Republicans to higher office.

Not sure how you can say that when in 2018, with competitive statewide races, two party primary vote was R+34. This year, with no big competitive Dem marquee races, it was R+24. That's a huge shift considering Rs advantage in KS.

And they have closed primaries too, so Indies were only allowed to vote in the amendment.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #39 on: August 04, 2022, 03:25:51 PM »

It doesn't indicate any shift, truly. The two party primary vote was still 62-38 in favor of the GOP in Kansas. Just further proof that ballot measures like this and minimum wage increases can decisively pass while voters send Republicans to higher office.

That fact alone is good for the GOP but putting it in greater historically and circumstantial context it doesn't look so great.

The GOP always has a massive primary turnout edge in KS, often over 25 points in their favor. Also consider that on the Dem side there weren't any significant competitive primary elections.

Another factor too is all these Independents who overwhelmingly voted no, and showed up just to do so given they can't vote in D or R primaries. How do they lean and who will they vote for come 2022?
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Tartarus Sauce
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« Reply #40 on: August 04, 2022, 03:34:36 PM »

This helps Whitmer and Evers meaningfully given the total bans hanging in the balance there.  Probably helps Shapiro in PA, too, even though a ban isn't really in the cards there.  IDK if it helps or hurts Kelly.  The Kansas moderates could either stay angry at R's or alternatively feel safer voting straight ticket R in the fall knowing that state level abortion rights are now safe.  

Bottom line, it looks like there are more soft pro-choice Trump voters than we thought.

It's honestly not all that surprising to me. Part of the genius of Trump was separating social conservatism from religion. This is kind of hard to explain, but think about people like Rick Santorum. In many ways, they set the tone for the modern GOP in terms of focus on the culture war, but they were and are pretty astoundingly unpopular; most Americans think it's weird to be that religious, even if they could be persuaded to agree with some of his culture war positions for different reasons like racial resentment. Trump successfully ditched the hyper-religiousness, leaving mostly just the bits that were popular.

I'd actually contend that the idea that Trump "broke" from the religious right is a bit overplayed. Trump was CONSTANTLY pandering to and elevating the hyper religious conservatives. He just successfully dissociated himself from that kind of religious image when catering to his less piously motivated supporters.

But the hyper religious faction is absolutely still a powerful force in Republican politics, and the increasing influence of Christian nationalist views permeating throughout the far right flank of the party is blending the "footsoliders for Jesus" mentality of the old school evangelicals with the more nebulous grievances of the authoritarian cultural reactionaries. Expect a lot of portrayals of the GOP as a band of pseudo-theocratic whack jobs to make a return in the popular discourse over the coming years.
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David Hume
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« Reply #41 on: August 04, 2022, 03:42:46 PM »

Whitmer was favored to begin with but yeah, that abortion referendum being on the ballot combined with Dixonís stances are really gonna help her. I think Lake winning is a boon for Hobbs too. Already knew Shapiro had a good shot against Mastriano but seeing this certainly doesnít hurt.

Yeah, it feels like it is a very bad idea for Pennsylvania Republicans to push for an anti-abortion referendum in November.


It won't make it on Nov, since it has to be approved for a second time in the NEXT session, which starts after Nov election.
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« Reply #42 on: August 07, 2022, 06:41:26 PM »

Laura Kelly losing was based upon a national GOP wave premise, but the last several weeks and GOP missteps across the country have significantly boosted her chances of winning again. If Johnson and other northeastern counties turnout bigtime in Nov, she wins.
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