538: Itís Hard To Win A Senate Race When Youíve Never Won An Election Before (user search)
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  538: Itís Hard To Win A Senate Race When Youíve Never Won An Election Before (search mode)
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Author Topic: 538: Itís Hard To Win A Senate Race When Youíve Never Won An Election Before  (Read 659 times)
Coldstream
Jr. Member
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Posts: 1,359
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -6.59, S: 1.20

P P
« on: August 05, 2022, 04:40:06 PM »

Notably the GOP bench consists of only three people with elected experience, two AGs (Laxalt and Schmitt) and a congressman (Budd). They'll likely get a second congressman with Mullin, and they might get Morse but that's it. The other candidates are a staffer (Britt), a pair of Thiel acolytes (Masters and Vance), a TV personality (Oz), and an athlete (Walker).


This is very different from the past races:

-Other than Hickenlooper, the candidates who flipped seats in 2020 were either first time candidates (Tuberville, Kelly, Warnock) or lost their only other election. Of the candidates who held open seats only Hagerty is a first time winner, as the rest were all current (Lujan and Marshall) and former (Lummis) congresspeople.
-The entire 2018 freshman class consisted of people who won elections before. Two governors (Romney and Scott), four congresspeople (Blackburn, Cramer, Rosen, and Sinema - and McSally if you count her), a row officer (Hawley) and a state legislator (Braun). Ditto with 2016 which was all congresspeople (Duckworth, Van Hollen, and Young), governors (Hassan) or row officers (Cortez Masto, Kennedy)
-Perdue and Sasse were the only first-time candidates to win in 2014. It was mostly congresspeople (Capito, Cassidy, Cotton, Daines, Gardner, Lankford, Peters), legislators (Ernst and Tillis) and a former governor (Rounds).
-In 2012 it was Warren and Cruz. The rest either came from congress (Baldwin, Donnelly, Flake, Henirich, Hirono, and Murphy), governorships (Kaine and King), legislatures (Fischer) and row offices (Heitkamp).
-In 2010 the first time winners were Johnson, Paul, and Lee. Ayotte though was an AG in one of the very few states it's not an elected position. It was mostly congresspeople (Blunt, Boozman, Kirk, Portman, Toomey), two governor (Hoeven and Manchin), a row officer (Blumenthal), a state legislator (Rubio), a local officeholder (Coons) and one ex-senator (Coats).

Interesting to see it all written down. Looking at this, I think thereís a credible argument that Vance, Masters, Walker and Oz are all less experienced than anyone elected to the Senate since 2010 - except Tuberville and Johnson. Kelly being married to a Congresswoman, Warnock being a campaign, Paul being the son of a congressman & campaigner, Warren being a law professor are all arguably better prep for being a senator than any of the current four do.
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Coldstream
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,359
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -6.59, S: 1.20

P P
« Reply #1 on: August 07, 2022, 04:09:46 AM »

I will note that everyone here was saying this about Ossoff and Warnock two years ago.

Anecdotal, but I donít remember anyone thinking this was a problem - and Ossoff had run for office.

Georgia for the Democrats is different to Arizona, Ohio, Georgia and Pennsylvania for the GOP. Georgia Democrats didnít have a wide bench of current & former congresspeople or row officers to choose from -  whilst the Republicans in the above 4 seats had all of them, yet still chose completely inexperienced outsiders.
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