538: Itís Hard To Win A Senate Race When Youíve Never Won An Election Before (user search)

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September 30, 2022, 10:42:49 AM
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  538: Itís Hard To Win A Senate Race When Youíve Never Won An Election Before (search mode)
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Author Topic: 538: Itís Hard To Win A Senate Race When Youíve Never Won An Election Before  (Read 648 times)
Junior Chimp
Posts: 7,275
United States

« on: August 05, 2022, 02:35:35 PM »
« edited: August 05, 2022, 05:26:56 PM by Tekken_Guy »

Notably the GOP bench consists of only three people with elected experience, two AGs (Laxalt and Schmitt) and a congressman (Budd). They'll likely get a second congressman with Mullin, and they might get Morse but that's it. The other candidates are a staffer (Britt), a pair of Thiel acolytes (Masters and Vance), a TV personality (Oz), and an athlete (Walker).

This is very different from the past races:

-Other than Hickenlooper, the candidates who flipped seats in 2020 were either first time candidates (Tuberville, Kelly, Warnock) or lost their only other election. Of the candidates who held open seats only Hagerty is a first time winner, as the rest were all current (Lujan and Marshall) and former (Lummis) congresspeople, plus a row officer was appointed (Padilla)
-The entire 2018 freshman class consisted of people who won elections before. Two governors (Romney and Scott), four congresspeople (Blackburn, Cramer, Rosen, and Sinema - and McSally if you count her), a row officer (Hawley) and a state legislator (Braun). Ditto with 2016 which was all congresspeople (Duckworth, Van Hollen, and Young), governors (Hassan) or row officers (Cortez Masto, Harris, Kennedy)
-Perdue and Sasse were the only first-time candidates to win in 2014. It was mostly congresspeople (Capito, Cassidy, Cotton, Daines, Gardner, Lankford, Peters), legislators (Ernst and Tillis) and a former governor (Rounds).
-In 2012 it was Warren and Cruz. The rest either came from congress (Baldwin, Donnelly, Flake, Henirich, Hirono, and Murphy), governorships (Kaine and King), legislatures (Fischer) and row offices (Heitkamp).
-In 2010 the first time winners were Johnson, Paul, and Lee. Ayotte though was an AG in one of the very few states it's not an elected position. It was mostly congresspeople (Blunt, Boozman, Kirk, Portman, Toomey), two governors (Hoeven and Manchin), a row officer (Blumenthal), a state legislator (Rubio), a local officeholder (Coons) and one ex-senator (Coats).
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