538: Itís Hard To Win A Senate Race When Youíve Never Won An Election Before
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  538: Itís Hard To Win A Senate Race When Youíve Never Won An Election Before
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Author Topic: 538: Itís Hard To Win A Senate Race When Youíve Never Won An Election Before  (Read 650 times)
GeorgiaModerate
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« on: August 05, 2022, 01:29:47 PM »

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-hard-to-win-a-senate-race-when-youve-never-won-an-election-before/

A really interesting article with some stats that illustrate how relatively inexperienced the Republican Senate candidates (and to a lesser extent, their gubernatorial candidates) are compared to their Democratic opponents in competitive states, and why that's important.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #1 on: August 05, 2022, 02:35:35 PM »
« Edited: August 05, 2022, 05:26:56 PM by Tekken_Guy »

Notably the GOP bench consists of only three people with elected experience, two AGs (Laxalt and Schmitt) and a congressman (Budd). They'll likely get a second congressman with Mullin, and they might get Morse but that's it. The other candidates are a staffer (Britt), a pair of Thiel acolytes (Masters and Vance), a TV personality (Oz), and an athlete (Walker).


This is very different from the past races:

-Other than Hickenlooper, the candidates who flipped seats in 2020 were either first time candidates (Tuberville, Kelly, Warnock) or lost their only other election. Of the candidates who held open seats only Hagerty is a first time winner, as the rest were all current (Lujan and Marshall) and former (Lummis) congresspeople, plus a row officer was appointed (Padilla)
-The entire 2018 freshman class consisted of people who won elections before. Two governors (Romney and Scott), four congresspeople (Blackburn, Cramer, Rosen, and Sinema - and McSally if you count her), a row officer (Hawley) and a state legislator (Braun). Ditto with 2016 which was all congresspeople (Duckworth, Van Hollen, and Young), governors (Hassan) or row officers (Cortez Masto, Harris, Kennedy)
-Perdue and Sasse were the only first-time candidates to win in 2014. It was mostly congresspeople (Capito, Cassidy, Cotton, Daines, Gardner, Lankford, Peters), legislators (Ernst and Tillis) and a former governor (Rounds).
-In 2012 it was Warren and Cruz. The rest either came from congress (Baldwin, Donnelly, Flake, Henirich, Hirono, and Murphy), governorships (Kaine and King), legislatures (Fischer) and row offices (Heitkamp).
-In 2010 the first time winners were Johnson, Paul, and Lee. Ayotte though was an AG in one of the very few states it's not an elected position. It was mostly congresspeople (Blunt, Boozman, Kirk, Portman, Toomey), two governors (Hoeven and Manchin), a row officer (Blumenthal), a state legislator (Rubio), a local officeholder (Coons) and one ex-senator (Coats).
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Coldstream
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« Reply #2 on: August 05, 2022, 04:40:06 PM »

Notably the GOP bench consists of only three people with elected experience, two AGs (Laxalt and Schmitt) and a congressman (Budd). They'll likely get a second congressman with Mullin, and they might get Morse but that's it. The other candidates are a staffer (Britt), a pair of Thiel acolytes (Masters and Vance), a TV personality (Oz), and an athlete (Walker).


This is very different from the past races:

-Other than Hickenlooper, the candidates who flipped seats in 2020 were either first time candidates (Tuberville, Kelly, Warnock) or lost their only other election. Of the candidates who held open seats only Hagerty is a first time winner, as the rest were all current (Lujan and Marshall) and former (Lummis) congresspeople.
-The entire 2018 freshman class consisted of people who won elections before. Two governors (Romney and Scott), four congresspeople (Blackburn, Cramer, Rosen, and Sinema - and McSally if you count her), a row officer (Hawley) and a state legislator (Braun). Ditto with 2016 which was all congresspeople (Duckworth, Van Hollen, and Young), governors (Hassan) or row officers (Cortez Masto, Kennedy)
-Perdue and Sasse were the only first-time candidates to win in 2014. It was mostly congresspeople (Capito, Cassidy, Cotton, Daines, Gardner, Lankford, Peters), legislators (Ernst and Tillis) and a former governor (Rounds).
-In 2012 it was Warren and Cruz. The rest either came from congress (Baldwin, Donnelly, Flake, Henirich, Hirono, and Murphy), governorships (Kaine and King), legislatures (Fischer) and row offices (Heitkamp).
-In 2010 the first time winners were Johnson, Paul, and Lee. Ayotte though was an AG in one of the very few states it's not an elected position. It was mostly congresspeople (Blunt, Boozman, Kirk, Portman, Toomey), two governor (Hoeven and Manchin), a row officer (Blumenthal), a state legislator (Rubio), a local officeholder (Coons) and one ex-senator (Coats).

Interesting to see it all written down. Looking at this, I think thereís a credible argument that Vance, Masters, Walker and Oz are all less experienced than anyone elected to the Senate since 2010 - except Tuberville and Johnson. Kelly being married to a Congresswoman, Warnock being a campaign, Paul being the son of a congressman & campaigner, Warren being a law professor are all arguably better prep for being a senator than any of the current four do.
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« Reply #3 on: August 05, 2022, 06:35:20 PM »

The question is whether that even resonates anymore with voters or not. Trump's inexperience, and even Obama's, was used against them and it barely mattered after they won. I think we're in a different time.

On the other hand, the four detailed in the article aren't running nationally after a national primary allows all Americans to get acquainted with them, so the familiarity voters in certain states have with this year's Democratic candidates could still be a boon, especially if they've won statewide before. Meanwhile, the non-politicians have never even done anything for their state by comparison and have to run on voters trusting them based on their private personas, which aren't all that compelling among any of them, I think it can be said.
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« Reply #4 on: August 06, 2022, 12:35:40 AM »

The question is whether that even resonates anymore with voters or not. Trump's inexperience, and even Obama's, was used against them and it barely mattered after they won. I think we're in a different time.

On the other hand, the four detailed in the article aren't running nationally after a national primary allows all Americans to get acquainted with them, so the familiarity voters in certain states have with this year's Democratic candidates could still be a boon, especially if they've won statewide before. Meanwhile, the non-politicians have never even done anything for their state by comparison and have to run on voters trusting them based on their private personas, which aren't all that compelling among any of them, I think it can be said.

Well people like Walker are both outsiders and totally insane.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #5 on: August 06, 2022, 01:54:18 AM »

Notably the GOP bench consists of only three people with elected experience, two AGs (Laxalt and Schmitt) and a congressman (Budd). They'll likely get a second congressman with Mullin, and they might get Morse but that's it. The other candidates are a staffer (Britt), a pair of Thiel acolytes (Masters and Vance), a TV personality (Oz), and an athlete (Walker).


This is very different from the past races:

-Other than Hickenlooper, the candidates who flipped seats in 2020 were either first time candidates (Tuberville, Kelly, Warnock) or lost their only other election. Of the candidates who held open seats only Hagerty is a first time winner, as the rest were all current (Lujan and Marshall) and former (Lummis) congresspeople, plus a row officer was appointed (Padilla)
-The entire 2018 freshman class consisted of people who won elections before. Two governors (Romney and Scott), four congresspeople (Blackburn, Cramer, Rosen, and Sinema - and McSally if you count her), a row officer (Hawley) and a state legislator (Braun). Ditto with 2016 which was all congresspeople (Duckworth, Van Hollen, and Young), governors (Hassan) or row officers (Cortez Masto, Harris, Kennedy)
-Perdue and Sasse were the only first-time candidates to win in 2014. It was mostly congresspeople (Capito, Cassidy, Cotton, Daines, Gardner, Lankford, Peters), legislators (Ernst and Tillis) and a former governor (Rounds).
-In 2012 it was Warren and Cruz. The rest either came from congress (Baldwin, Donnelly, Flake, Henirich, Hirono, and Murphy), governorships (Kaine and King), legislatures (Fischer) and row offices (Heitkamp).
-In 2010 the first time winners were Johnson, Paul, and Lee. Ayotte though was an AG in one of the very few states it's not an elected position. It was mostly congresspeople (Blunt, Boozman, Kirk, Portman, Toomey), two governors (Hoeven and Manchin), a row officer (Blumenthal), a state legislator (Rubio), a local officeholder (Coons) and one ex-senator (Coats).

I agree that we've seen lots of examples of people who never held public office and run for Senate or smtg and are quite successful. However, even then, they're usually related to politics in some way, or are at least well respected lawyers or smtg.

The issue with some of these GOP canidates is not necessarily that they haven't run for office before, but that folks like Walker come from an area that doesn't have anything to do with politics and as a consequence tends to be less knowledgeable on how to be politically savy and also a lot of the Trumpists have trouble regulating themselves and what they say.
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Actual Necromancer Joe Manchin
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« Reply #6 on: August 06, 2022, 02:52:09 AM »

The question is whether that even resonates anymore with voters or not. Trump's inexperience, and even Obama's, was used against them and it barely mattered after they won. I think we're in a different time.

On the other hand, the four detailed in the article aren't running nationally after a national primary allows all Americans to get acquainted with them, so the familiarity voters in certain states have with this year's Democratic candidates could still be a boon, especially if they've won statewide before. Meanwhile, the non-politicians have never even done anything for their state by comparison and have to run on voters trusting them based on their private personas, which aren't all that compelling among any of them, I think it can be said.

Well people like Walker are both outsiders and totally insane.

Masters is hotter than Kelly, but in a creepy "chad meme IRL" way. Other than that, no, not personally compelling at all unless you spend double-digit hours a week watching or discussing TED talks.
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« Reply #7 on: August 06, 2022, 03:45:10 AM »

The question is whether that even resonates anymore with voters or not. Trump's inexperience, and even Obama's, was used against them and it barely mattered after they won. I think we're in a different time.

On the other hand, the four detailed in the article aren't running nationally after a national primary allows all Americans to get acquainted with them, so the familiarity voters in certain states have with this year's Democratic candidates could still be a boon, especially if they've won statewide before. Meanwhile, the non-politicians have never even done anything for their state by comparison and have to run on voters trusting them based on their private personas, which aren't all that compelling among any of them, I think it can be said.

Well people like Walker are both outsiders and totally insane.

Masters is hotter than Kelly, but in a creepy "chad meme IRL" way. Other than that, no, not personally compelling at all unless you spend double-digit hours a week watching or discussing TED talks.

Another difference between the 2020 crowd and the current GOP lineup is that the 2020 outsiders had what I call 'politically marketable jobs'. For example, Kelly was an astronaut and Warnock was a religious leader.
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« Reply #8 on: August 06, 2022, 09:16:57 AM »

I will note that everyone here was saying this about Ossoff and Warnock two years ago.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #9 on: August 06, 2022, 09:28:25 AM »
« Edited: August 06, 2022, 12:11:37 PM by GeorgiaModerate »

I will note that everyone here was saying this about Ossoff and Warnock two years ago.

True, but at least they did have some useful political experience.  Ossoff ran for Congress in the GA-06 special in 2017, and he clearly learned from the experience; his 2020 campaign was far better.  Warnock was a political activist for years before running for office.  Similarly, Mark Kelly is married to former Rep. Gabby Giffords and was active in the gun control PAC they started after her shooting.  

Walker, Vance, and Masters have zero political experience that I know of, while Oz has a minimal amount (he was on the President's Council on Sports, Fitness, and Nutrition).
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Coldstream
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« Reply #10 on: August 07, 2022, 04:09:46 AM »

I will note that everyone here was saying this about Ossoff and Warnock two years ago.

Anecdotal, but I donít remember anyone thinking this was a problem - and Ossoff had run for office.

Georgia for the Democrats is different to Arizona, Ohio, Georgia and Pennsylvania for the GOP. Georgia Democrats didnít have a wide bench of current & former congresspeople or row officers to choose from -  whilst the Republicans in the above 4 seats had all of them, yet still chose completely inexperienced outsiders.
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« Reply #11 on: August 07, 2022, 04:52:40 AM »

The question is whether that even resonates anymore with voters or not. Trump's inexperience, and even Obama's, was used against them and it barely mattered after they won. I think we're in a different time.

On the other hand, the four detailed in the article aren't running nationally after a national primary allows all Americans to get acquainted with them, so the familiarity voters in certain states have with this year's Democratic candidates could still be a boon, especially if they've won statewide before. Meanwhile, the non-politicians have never even done anything for their state by comparison and have to run on voters trusting them based on their private personas, which aren't all that compelling among any of them, I think it can be said.

Well people like Walker are both outsiders and totally insane.

Masters is hotter than Kelly, but in a creepy "chad meme IRL" way. Other than that, no, not personally compelling at all unless you spend double-digit hours a week watching or discussing TED talks.

Another difference between the 2020 crowd and the current GOP lineup is that the 2020 outsiders had what I call 'politically marketable jobs'. For example, Kelly was an astronaut and Warnock was a religious leader.

Fair enough. Would argue that a commentator and author of a politically charged book (Vance) and a venture capitalist (Masters) are also 'politically marketable jobs'. A football star and a television personality slash snake oil salesman, on the other hand...
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theflyingmongoose
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« Reply #12 on: August 07, 2022, 04:56:37 AM »

The question is whether that even resonates anymore with voters or not. Trump's inexperience, and even Obama's, was used against them and it barely mattered after they won. I think we're in a different time.

On the other hand, the four detailed in the article aren't running nationally after a national primary allows all Americans to get acquainted with them, so the familiarity voters in certain states have with this year's Democratic candidates could still be a boon, especially if they've won statewide before. Meanwhile, the non-politicians have never even done anything for their state by comparison and have to run on voters trusting them based on their private personas, which aren't all that compelling among any of them, I think it can be said.

Well people like Walker are both outsiders and totally insane.

Masters is hotter than Kelly, but in a creepy "chad meme IRL" way. Other than that, no, not personally compelling at all unless you spend double-digit hours a week watching or discussing TED talks.

Another difference between the 2020 crowd and the current GOP lineup is that the 2020 outsiders had what I call 'politically marketable jobs'. For example, Kelly was an astronaut and Warnock was a religious leader.

Fair enough. Would argue that a commentator and author of a politically charged book (Vance) and a venture capitalist (Masters) are also 'politically marketable jobs'. A football star and a television personality slash snake oil salesman, on the other hand...


Oh yeah TV/Snake Oil Salesman is not really marketable, particularly when you hire the clowns that Oz did to run his campaign.
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Blair
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« Reply #13 on: August 07, 2022, 12:49:46 PM »

Yeah it's been very obvious for a number of years that you're most likely to do well in a senate race (especially against the headwinds) if you've got experience that allows you have your own brand.

This is not always electoral experience (see Mark Kelly, Astronaut) but state wide politicians like CCM, Maggie Hassan, Rick Scott etc clearly did better than some random state house speaker or two term congresscritter.

I will note that everyone here was saying this about Ossoff and Warnock two years ago.

Anecdotal, but I donít remember anyone thinking this was a problem - and Ossoff had run for office.

Georgia for the Democrats is different to Arizona, Ohio, Georgia and Pennsylvania for the GOP. Georgia Democrats didnít have a wide bench of current & former congresspeople or row officers to choose from -  whilst the Republicans in the above 4 seats had all of them, yet still chose completely inexperienced outsiders.

The issue was more so some mild confusion (from out of state posters!) about why bigger names weren't running- especially when you had Jason Carter, Michelle Nunn, Sally Yates & a fair number of elected politicians.

Ofc people ignroed that Abrams was very open about Warnock being a good candidate and essentially said 'trust me I know my operation'.
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