What recession? July job’s report destroys expectations (user search)
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  What recession? July job’s report destroys expectations (search mode)
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Author Topic: What recession? July job’s report destroys expectations  (Read 1897 times)
jojoju1998
1970vu
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,567
United States


« on: August 05, 2022, 12:46:23 PM »

This economy is confusing. A byproduct of the Covid situation. We won't really know the true state of the economy until 2023/2024.
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jojoju1998
1970vu
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,567
United States


« Reply #1 on: August 05, 2022, 05:34:09 PM »

Suddenly recessions are defined by jobs reports and unemployment rate instead of GDP. Labor force participation rate, though... that's not a thing.

But they're NOT defined by GDP, except as an unofficial rule-of-thumb.  Like all such empirical rules, this is not a hard and fast definition, especially in exceptional situations. 

In the U.S., recessions are officially declared by the NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research), which defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.”  The continued strong growth in jobs and extremely low unemployment rate make it clear that the current U.S. economy does not fit the definition of a recession.

I'll give credit where it's due. The jobs report is good news. I'm glad the blue states have decided to pull their weight. Labor force participation rate, however, directly affects the unemployment rate. Currently it sits at 62.1% and has declined in recent months. Compare that to 63.4% in 2020. The unemployment rate only counts those in the participation rate, meaning that even with a low unemployment rate, we have not recovered the actual number of jobs lost from COVID policies.

Now all we need is red states to pull their own weight via taxation!

I'm pretty sure red state economies are doing better because of lower taxes. It's almost as if businesses want to be located and states that are business-friendly. Crazy.

The only red states that are performing above average, have been Georgia, Florida, and Texas.

And what do all of these states have ? FEDERAL INVESTMENT. STRONG HIGHER EDUCATION. AND MORE EDUCATED WORKERS. Texas by the way has massive federal investment; especially in Aerospace. Georgia has Emory University.

Lower taxes are not the panacea to everything. Let's say you cut taxes. Okay, but if you're not going to get the skilled educated workers, federal investment, it's useless.

i mean; if tax cuts were the answer to everything, we should have seen Alabama be a success story right now. It's not. The only reason why it's barely hanging on is because of Federal government investment.

Something Republicans like to brag about... like Senator Roger Wicker when he boasted about the American Rescue Plan's benefits for MS, without mentioning that he voted against it. Or how Congressman Paul Ryan wrote in 2010 to then Vice President joe Biden thanking Obama for the 2009 federal stimulus, saying that it would create jobs.

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jojoju1998
1970vu
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,567
United States


« Reply #2 on: August 05, 2022, 05:38:28 PM »

Suddenly recessions are defined by jobs reports and unemployment rate instead of GDP. Labor force participation rate, though... that's not a thing.

But they're NOT defined by GDP, except as an unofficial rule-of-thumb.  Like all such empirical rules, this is not a hard and fast definition, especially in exceptional situations. 

In the U.S., recessions are officially declared by the NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research), which defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.”  The continued strong growth in jobs and extremely low unemployment rate make it clear that the current U.S. economy does not fit the definition of a recession.

I'll give credit where it's due. The jobs report is good news. I'm glad the blue states have decided to pull their weight. Labor force participation rate, however, directly affects the unemployment rate. Currently it sits at 62.1% and has declined in recent months. Compare that to 63.4% in 2020. The unemployment rate only counts those in the participation rate, meaning that even with a low unemployment rate, we have not recovered the actual number of jobs lost from COVID policies.

Now all we need is red states to pull their own weight via taxation!

I'm pretty sure red state economies are doing better because of lower taxes. It's almost as if businesses want to be located and states that are business-friendly. Crazy.

Define better economies.  What metric(s) are you considering?  If we look at per capita GDP, the leaders are all Democratic states except for Alaska, North Dakota, and Wyoming, which I'd guess are strong due to fossil fuel production.

1. Massachusetts
2. New York
3. Alaska
4. North Dakota
5. California
6. Connecticut
7. Washington
8. Wyoming
9. Delaware
10. New Jersey

Source: https://www.statista.com/statistics/248063/per-capita-us-real-gross-domestic-product-gdp-by-state/


Innovative companies like to work in liberal states; they would rather face higher taxes than to have a less skilled, less liberal population to get talent form.
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jojoju1998
1970vu
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,567
United States


« Reply #3 on: August 05, 2022, 06:27:42 PM »

It seems with midterms just around the corner Biden is finally starting to get it into gear. Has a ways to go before I'd say I approve, but this is good news.

Honestly, Dark Brandon has always seemed to have luck on his side and always seems to be underestimated. He was left for dead after Iowa and New Hampshire only to win the primaries in a landslide. How quickly we forget...

Can someone explain to me the lower taxes argument ? If lower taxes produces a better economies; than why isn't Arkansas great ? Or Lousiana ?

Texas, Georgia, must have something else to attract companies right ?
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jojoju1998
1970vu
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,567
United States


« Reply #4 on: August 06, 2022, 06:34:58 PM »

I'm sensing a pattern:

H.W. Bush: Jobs collapse
B. Clinton: Jobs rebound
W. Bush: Jobs collapse
Obama: Jobs rebound
Trump: Jobs collapse
Biden: Jobs rebound

And you can also insert "deficit explodes" and "deficit decreases".

Especially ironic given that Republicans are the ones who portend to be 'deficit hawks' and attack Democrats for their 'irresponsible spending' or whatever they call it.

I know OSR has his 'Carter let the military deteriorate' argument for the Reagan deficit explosion but what about the Bush and Trump explosions?

Bush's was obviously because of Iraq, but I'm not even entirely sure how Trump managed to expand the deficit so much.

The tax cuts and then the Covid stimulus spending.
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