What recession? July job’s report destroys expectations
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August 19, 2022, 02:58:26 AM
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  What recession? July job’s report destroys expectations
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Author Topic: What recession? July job’s report destroys expectations  (Read 1071 times)
Benjamin Frank
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« Reply #50 on: August 06, 2022, 04:31:31 AM »

Three

I agree the economy is unsettled. I don't really follow monthly economic data, so I don't know where these new jobs are being added, but it seems obvious to me that for supply chains to open up again, it's going to take more workers in order to do that.

So, if these new workers are clearing up the bottlenecks, this should actually result in lower inflation going forward.

Because economic decisions often leads to contrary effects: on the one hand, a lower unemployment rate will likely lead to higher wage demands and higher wages, on the other hand, if these workers are being hired to clean up supply chain bottlenecks, it will likely result in increased supply and lower inflation.  

So, this is why, for instance, it makes sense for the Federal Reserve to not raise interest rates too quickly. If faster rising interest rates lead to layoffs in firms that are helping to increase supply thereby lowering inflation, that would have negative inflationary effects in the short term until the demand destruction of a significant rise in interest rates in one go fully worked through the economy.

This reminds me of an episode of Yes, Minister, where Minister Hacker called for greater efficiencies in the civil service and was later told by Sir Humphrey that the civil service planned to hire 20,000 new civil servants to find and implement efficiencies.

When Minister Hacker complained, Sir Humphrey told him that if he wanted to cancel this efficiency program, he could claim that the civil service had just laid off 20,000 civil servants.

I hope some people have a better understanding of the complexities of the economy.
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Yoda
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« Reply #51 on: August 06, 2022, 04:43:18 AM »

MY PEOPLE CRY OUT FOR RELIEF FROM THIS ECONOMIC DISASTER, UNPARALLELED SINCE THE DAYS OF HOOVER. WHO CARES ABOUT 10 YEAR OLD ABUSE VICTIMS BEING FORCED TO GIVE BIRTH. WHO CARES THAT EVERYONE HAS A JOB. MY VEGETABLES COST MORE BRANDONNNNNNNNNN

If this had been in quotes and posted round 10pm I would have fully believed it was a Tucker quote from his show last night.
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Yoda
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« Reply #52 on: August 06, 2022, 04:47:01 AM »

Suddenly recessions are defined by jobs reports and unemployment rate instead of GDP. Labor force participation rate, though... that's not a thing.

*Breathes deeply, opens eyes*

I sense much cope in you....
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politicallefty
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« Reply #53 on: August 06, 2022, 04:50:24 AM »

I'm not sure how there's a recession with +528k jobs (and the two months prior revised upward) and tying the lowest unemployment rate since 1969.
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CentristRepublican
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #54 on: August 06, 2022, 02:46:51 PM »

I'm sure this will not stop pundits and members of the press though from continuing to wishcast a recession into fruition.

There is certainly a complex economic situation going on right now (which is expected after a global pandemic), but it certainly does not seem like a recession.

Agreed.
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CentristRepublican
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #55 on: August 06, 2022, 02:47:52 PM »

I'm sensing a pattern:

H.W. Bush: Jobs collapse
B. Clinton: Jobs rebound
W. Bush: Jobs collapse
Obama: Jobs rebound
Trump: Jobs collapse
Biden: Jobs rebound

And you can also insert "deficit explodes" and "deficit decreases".

Especially ironic given that Republicans are the ones who portend to be 'deficit hawks' and attack Democrats for their 'irresponsible spending' or whatever they call it.
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Dark Brandon Raided Your House
theflyingmongoose
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« Reply #56 on: August 06, 2022, 04:45:48 PM »

I'm sensing a pattern:

H.W. Bush: Jobs collapse
B. Clinton: Jobs rebound
W. Bush: Jobs collapse
Obama: Jobs rebound
Trump: Jobs collapse
Biden: Jobs rebound

And you can also insert "deficit explodes" and "deficit decreases".

Especially ironic given that Republicans are the ones who portend to be 'deficit hawks' and attack Democrats for their 'irresponsible spending' or whatever they call it.

I know OSR has his 'Carter let the military deteriorate' argument for the Reagan deficit explosion but what about the Bush and Trump explosions?
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CentristRepublican
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #57 on: August 06, 2022, 06:21:11 PM »

I'm sensing a pattern:

H.W. Bush: Jobs collapse
B. Clinton: Jobs rebound
W. Bush: Jobs collapse
Obama: Jobs rebound
Trump: Jobs collapse
Biden: Jobs rebound

And you can also insert "deficit explodes" and "deficit decreases".

Especially ironic given that Republicans are the ones who portend to be 'deficit hawks' and attack Democrats for their 'irresponsible spending' or whatever they call it.

I know OSR has his 'Carter let the military deteriorate' argument for the Reagan deficit explosion but what about the Bush and Trump explosions?

Bush's was obviously because of Iraq, but I'm not even entirely sure how Trump managed to expand the deficit so much.
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jojoju1998
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« Reply #58 on: August 06, 2022, 06:34:58 PM »

I'm sensing a pattern:

H.W. Bush: Jobs collapse
B. Clinton: Jobs rebound
W. Bush: Jobs collapse
Obama: Jobs rebound
Trump: Jobs collapse
Biden: Jobs rebound

And you can also insert "deficit explodes" and "deficit decreases".

Especially ironic given that Republicans are the ones who portend to be 'deficit hawks' and attack Democrats for their 'irresponsible spending' or whatever they call it.

I know OSR has his 'Carter let the military deteriorate' argument for the Reagan deficit explosion but what about the Bush and Trump explosions?

Bush's was obviously because of Iraq, but I'm not even entirely sure how Trump managed to expand the deficit so much.

The tax cuts and then the Covid stimulus spending.
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CentristRepublican
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #59 on: August 06, 2022, 06:51:29 PM »

I'm sensing a pattern:

H.W. Bush: Jobs collapse
B. Clinton: Jobs rebound
W. Bush: Jobs collapse
Obama: Jobs rebound
Trump: Jobs collapse
Biden: Jobs rebound

And you can also insert "deficit explodes" and "deficit decreases".

Especially ironic given that Republicans are the ones who portend to be 'deficit hawks' and attack Democrats for their 'irresponsible spending' or whatever they call it.

I know OSR has his 'Carter let the military deteriorate' argument for the Reagan deficit explosion but what about the Bush and Trump explosions?

Bush's was obviously because of Iraq, but I'm not even entirely sure how Trump managed to expand the deficit so much.

The tax cuts and then the Covid stimulus spending.

I suspected the 2017 tax cuts played a role in it, but I forgot to the COVID spending. In Trump's defense regarding the latter, the COVID spending was something even Democrats strongly supported, and it really wasn't a partisan deal.
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