What recession? July job’s report destroys expectations

[Waldo]

Suddenly recessions are defined by jobs reports and unemployment rate instead of GDP. Labor force participation rate, though... that's not a thing.

But they're NOT defined by GDP, except as an unofficial rule-of-thumb.  Like all such empirical rules, this is not a hard and fast definition, especially in exceptional situations. 

In the U.S., recessions are officially declared by the NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research), which defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.”  The continued strong growth in jobs and extremely low unemployment rate make it clear that the current U.S. economy does not fit the definition of a recession.

I'll give credit where it's due. The jobs report is good news. I'm glad the blue states have decided to pull their weight. Labor force participation rate, however, directly affects the unemployment rate. Currently it sits at 62.1% and has declined in recent months. Compare that to 63.4% in 2020. The unemployment rate only counts those in the participation rate, meaning that even with a low unemployment rate, we have not recovered the actual number of jobs lost from COVID policies.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Suddenly recessions are defined by jobs reports and unemployment rate instead of GDP. Labor force participation rate, though... that's not a thing.

But they're NOT defined by GDP, except as an unofficial rule-of-thumb.  Like all such empirical rules, this is not a hard and fast definition, especially in exceptional situations. 

In the U.S., recessions are officially declared by the NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research), which defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.”  The continued strong growth in jobs and extremely low unemployment rate make it clear that the current U.S. economy does not fit the definition of a recession.

I'll give credit where it's due. The jobs report is good news. I'm glad the blue states have decided to pull their weight. Labor force participation rate, however, directly affects the unemployment rate. Currently it sits at 62.1% and has declined in recent months. Compare that to 63.4% in 2020. The unemployment rate only counts those in the participation rate, meaning that even with a low unemployment rate, we have not recovered the actual number of jobs lost from COVID policies.

[jojoju1998]

This economy is confusing. A byproduct of the Covid situation. We won't really know the true state of the economy until 2023/2024.

[emailking]

Great job by Biden lowering our unemployment rate yet again!

[Lief 🗽]

My god, the economy is so strong and our President’s leadership is so tremendous that even the right-wing hacks at CNN are being forced to admit it!

[Devout Centrist]

[7,052,770]

My god, the economy is so strong and our President’s leadership is so tremendous that even the right-wing hacks at CNN are being forced to admit it!

Politics aside, he looks so cool in those sunglasses

[Horus]

It seems with midterms just around the corner Biden is finally starting to get it into gear. Has a ways to go before I'd say I approve, but this is good news.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Suddenly recessions are defined by jobs reports and unemployment rate instead of GDP. Labor force participation rate, though... that's not a thing.

But they're NOT defined by GDP, except as an unofficial rule-of-thumb.  Like all such empirical rules, this is not a hard and fast definition, especially in exceptional situations. 

In the U.S., recessions are officially declared by the NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research), which defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.”  The continued strong growth in jobs and extremely low unemployment rate make it clear that the current U.S. economy does not fit the definition of a recession.

I'll give credit where it's due. The jobs report is good news. I'm glad the blue states have decided to pull their weight. Labor force participation rate, however, directly affects the unemployment rate. Currently it sits at 62.1% and has declined in recent months. Compare that to 63.4% in 2020. The unemployment rate only counts those in the participation rate, meaning that even with a low unemployment rate, we have not recovered the actual number of jobs lost from COVID policies.

Now all we need is red states to pull their own weight via taxation!

[jamestroll]

Get off the couch and off unemployment and food stamps and get back to work !

[Nyvin]

Suddenly recessions are defined by jobs reports and unemployment rate instead of GDP. Labor force participation rate, though... that's not a thing.

But they're NOT defined by GDP, except as an unofficial rule-of-thumb.  Like all such empirical rules, this is not a hard and fast definition, especially in exceptional situations. 

In the U.S., recessions are officially declared by the NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research), which defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.”  The continued strong growth in jobs and extremely low unemployment rate make it clear that the current U.S. economy does not fit the definition of a recession.

I'll give credit where it's due. The jobs report is good news. I'm glad the blue states have decided to pull their weight. Labor force participation rate, however, directly affects the unemployment rate. Currently it sits at 62.1% and has declined in recent months. Compare that to 63.4% in 2020. The unemployment rate only counts those in the participation rate, meaning that even with a low unemployment rate, we have not recovered the actual number of jobs lost from COVID policies.

The labor force participation rate is naturally going to decrease over time until the Baby Boomer retirement wave crest though, which won't be until around 2025-2026.

[Waldo]

Suddenly recessions are defined by jobs reports and unemployment rate instead of GDP. Labor force participation rate, though... that's not a thing.

But they're NOT defined by GDP, except as an unofficial rule-of-thumb.  Like all such empirical rules, this is not a hard and fast definition, especially in exceptional situations. 

In the U.S., recessions are officially declared by the NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research), which defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.”  The continued strong growth in jobs and extremely low unemployment rate make it clear that the current U.S. economy does not fit the definition of a recession.

I'll give credit where it's due. The jobs report is good news. I'm glad the blue states have decided to pull their weight. Labor force participation rate, however, directly affects the unemployment rate. Currently it sits at 62.1% and has declined in recent months. Compare that to 63.4% in 2020. The unemployment rate only counts those in the participation rate, meaning that even with a low unemployment rate, we have not recovered the actual number of jobs lost from COVID policies.

Now all we need is red states to pull their own weight via taxation!

I'm pretty sure red state economies are doing better because of lower taxes. It's almost as if businesses want to be located and states that are business-friendly. Crazy.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Suddenly recessions are defined by jobs reports and unemployment rate instead of GDP. Labor force participation rate, though... that's not a thing.

But they're NOT defined by GDP, except as an unofficial rule-of-thumb.  Like all such empirical rules, this is not a hard and fast definition, especially in exceptional situations. 

In the U.S., recessions are officially declared by the NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research), which defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.”  The continued strong growth in jobs and extremely low unemployment rate make it clear that the current U.S. economy does not fit the definition of a recession.

I'll give credit where it's due. The jobs report is good news. I'm glad the blue states have decided to pull their weight. Labor force participation rate, however, directly affects the unemployment rate. Currently it sits at 62.1% and has declined in recent months. Compare that to 63.4% in 2020. The unemployment rate only counts those in the participation rate, meaning that even with a low unemployment rate, we have not recovered the actual number of jobs lost from COVID policies.

Now all we need is red states to pull their own weight via taxation!

I'm pretty sure red state economies are doing better because of lower taxes. It's almost as if businesses want to be located and states that are business-friendly. Crazy.

Define better economies.  What metric(s) are you considering?  If we look at per capita GDP, the leaders are all Democratic states except for Alaska, North Dakota, and Wyoming, which I'd guess are strong due to fossil fuel production.

1. Massachusetts
2. New York
3. Alaska
4. North Dakota
5. California
6. Connecticut
7. Washington
8. Wyoming
9. Delaware
10. New Jersey

Source: https://www.statista.com/statistics/248063/per-capita-us-real-gross-domestic-product-gdp-by-state/

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's not a job shortage it's inflation spending and labor Shortages and student loan crisis with an explosion of rent prices, gas prices have come down and food but the rents and CA is the sanctuary for homeless, because they have SF, LA and SD full of shelters but never stopped beautiful Disneyland or Hollywood and sane with any warm weather climate Hawaii has homelessness as well as FL

That's why it's a Recession, but Rs aren't offering anything D's are offering not stimulus checks but Stimulus PROGRAMS

We went from 500,k homeless nationwide before Pandemic 1M to 2M, and it's getting worse all the shelters are full of men not females to a homeless epidemic but CA made Sofi Std for the Rams

Look at 4 major cities SF LA, NY, Chicago Tent cities

[jojoju1998]

Suddenly recessions are defined by jobs reports and unemployment rate instead of GDP. Labor force participation rate, though... that's not a thing.

But they're NOT defined by GDP, except as an unofficial rule-of-thumb.  Like all such empirical rules, this is not a hard and fast definition, especially in exceptional situations. 

In the U.S., recessions are officially declared by the NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research), which defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.”  The continued strong growth in jobs and extremely low unemployment rate make it clear that the current U.S. economy does not fit the definition of a recession.

I'll give credit where it's due. The jobs report is good news. I'm glad the blue states have decided to pull their weight. Labor force participation rate, however, directly affects the unemployment rate. Currently it sits at 62.1% and has declined in recent months. Compare that to 63.4% in 2020. The unemployment rate only counts those in the participation rate, meaning that even with a low unemployment rate, we have not recovered the actual number of jobs lost from COVID policies.

Now all we need is red states to pull their own weight via taxation!

I'm pretty sure red state economies are doing better because of lower taxes. It's almost as if businesses want to be located and states that are business-friendly. Crazy.

The only red states that are performing above average, have been Georgia, Florida, and Texas.

And what do all of these states have ? FEDERAL INVESTMENT. STRONG HIGHER EDUCATION. AND MORE EDUCATED WORKERS. Texas by the way has massive federal investment; especially in Aerospace. Georgia has Emory University.

Lower taxes are not the panacea to everything. Let's say you cut taxes. Okay, but if you're not going to get the skilled educated workers, federal investment, it's useless.

i mean; if tax cuts were the answer to everything, we should have seen Alabama be a success story right now. It's not. The only reason why it's barely hanging on is because of Federal government investment.

Something Republicans like to brag about... like Senator Roger Wicker when he boasted about the American Rescue Plan's benefits for MS, without mentioning that he voted against it. Or how Congressman Paul Ryan wrote in 2010 to then Vice President joe Biden thanking Obama for the 2009 federal stimulus, saying that it would create jobs.

[jojoju1998]

Suddenly recessions are defined by jobs reports and unemployment rate instead of GDP. Labor force participation rate, though... that's not a thing.

But they're NOT defined by GDP, except as an unofficial rule-of-thumb.  Like all such empirical rules, this is not a hard and fast definition, especially in exceptional situations. 

In the U.S., recessions are officially declared by the NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research), which defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.”  The continued strong growth in jobs and extremely low unemployment rate make it clear that the current U.S. economy does not fit the definition of a recession.

I'll give credit where it's due. The jobs report is good news. I'm glad the blue states have decided to pull their weight. Labor force participation rate, however, directly affects the unemployment rate. Currently it sits at 62.1% and has declined in recent months. Compare that to 63.4% in 2020. The unemployment rate only counts those in the participation rate, meaning that even with a low unemployment rate, we have not recovered the actual number of jobs lost from COVID policies.

Now all we need is red states to pull their own weight via taxation!

I'm pretty sure red state economies are doing better because of lower taxes. It's almost as if businesses want to be located and states that are business-friendly. Crazy.

Define better economies.  What metric(s) are you considering?  If we look at per capita GDP, the leaders are all Democratic states except for Alaska, North Dakota, and Wyoming, which I'd guess are strong due to fossil fuel production.

1. Massachusetts
2. New York
3. Alaska
4. North Dakota
5. California
6. Connecticut
7. Washington
8. Wyoming
9. Delaware
10. New Jersey

Source: https://www.statista.com/statistics/248063/per-capita-us-real-gross-domestic-product-gdp-by-state/

Innovative companies like to work in liberal states; they would rather face higher taxes than to have a less skilled, less liberal population to get talent form.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Suddenly recessions are defined by jobs reports and unemployment rate instead of GDP. Labor force participation rate, though... that's not a thing.

But they're NOT defined by GDP, except as an unofficial rule-of-thumb.  Like all such empirical rules, this is not a hard and fast definition, especially in exceptional situations. 

In the U.S., recessions are officially declared by the NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research), which defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.”  The continued strong growth in jobs and extremely low unemployment rate make it clear that the current U.S. economy does not fit the definition of a recession.

I'll give credit where it's due. The jobs report is good news. I'm glad the blue states have decided to pull their weight. Labor force participation rate, however, directly affects the unemployment rate. Currently it sits at 62.1% and has declined in recent months. Compare that to 63.4% in 2020. The unemployment rate only counts those in the participation rate, meaning that even with a low unemployment rate, we have not recovered the actual number of jobs lost from COVID policies.

Now all we need is red states to pull their own weight via taxation!

I'm pretty sure red state economies are doing better because of lower taxes. It's almost as if businesses want to be located and states that are business-friendly. Crazy.

Look at my economic PC score. Ofc. I'm refering to states that take more from the federal government than they give back.

[Hermit For Peace]

The fact that the stock market is down on this very welcome news is a good reminder that the priorities of the capitalist class are not the priorities of ordinary people.

Were they ever?

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

The fact that the stock market is down on this very welcome news is a good reminder that the priorities of the capitalist class are not the priorities of ordinary people.

Were they ever?

No, but a lot of people are under the delusion that they are.

[Alben Barkley]

Dark Brandon is on a roll!

[Alben Barkley]

It seems with midterms just around the corner Biden is finally starting to get it into gear. Has a ways to go before I'd say I approve, but this is good news.

Honestly, Dark Brandon has always seemed to have luck on his side and always seems to be underestimated. He was left for dead after Iowa and New Hampshire only to win the primaries in a landslide. How quickly we forget...

[jojoju1998]

It seems with midterms just around the corner Biden is finally starting to get it into gear. Has a ways to go before I'd say I approve, but this is good news.

Honestly, Dark Brandon has always seemed to have luck on his side and always seems to be underestimated. He was left for dead after Iowa and New Hampshire only to win the primaries in a landslide. How quickly we forget...

Can someone explain to me the lower taxes argument ? If lower taxes produces a better economies; than why isn't Arkansas great ? Or Lousiana ?

Texas, Georgia, must have something else to attract companies right ?

[Progressive Pessimist]

This has been Biden's best week in almost a year. If gas prices continue declining and inflation rates finally do too, Biden needs to go out with the aviators and keep Americans informed of how Democrats are the party of solving problems and getting the country out of messes. Sure, there were some long, difficult growing pains, but we're getting through it (hopefully).

[Benjamin Frank]

Suddenly recessions are defined by jobs reports and unemployment rate instead of GDP. Labor force participation rate, though... that's not a thing.

Three points:

One

On the flip side, if you look at GDP in 2000 and 2001, there never was two quarters of negative economic growth during that period.

This is from FRED Real GDP per quarter
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1

1st quarter, 2000: 12,935.252
2nd quarter 2000: 13,170.749
3rd quarter 2000: 13,183.890
4th quarter 2000: 13,262.250
1st quarter 2001: 13,219.251
2nd quarter 2001: 13,301.394
3rd quarter 2001: 13,248.142
4th quarter 2001: 13,284.881
1st quarter 2002: 13,394.910

So, GDP declined in the first and third quarter of 2001 after slowing in the 3rd quarter of 2000. Based on this, and other factors, the NBER determined that there was a recession sometime during 2000 and 2001 even though there never was two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth.

Because of the NBER determination, everybody in the media refers to the recession of 2000 and 2001, and because of them, every person refers to the recession of 2000 and 2001. Yet, using this coloquial definition of 'two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth' there never was a recession.

The point being: That the NBER determines when a recession occurs is not 'sudden.'  Also, if you use the coloquial definition of a recession, there was no recession from around 1991 to sometime in 2007, or 16 years of consecutive yearly real economic growth. I think that is good evidence, that barring a shock like Covid, that the Federal Reserve generally does its job well.

I hope some people have a better understanding from this little historical economic lesson.

[Benjamin Frank]

It seems with midterms just around the corner Biden is finally starting to get it into gear. Has a ways to go before I'd say I approve, but this is good news.

Honestly, Dark Brandon has always seemed to have luck on his side and always seems to be underestimated. He was left for dead after Iowa and New Hampshire only to win the primaries in a landslide. How quickly we forget...

Can someone explain to me the lower taxes argument ? If lower taxes produces a better economies; than why isn't Arkansas great ? Or Lousiana ?

Texas, Georgia, must have something else to attract companies right ?

Two

States can compete in many different ways. Corporations themselves in surveys say they use about 20 different screens when deciding where to invest but obviously many of those have nothing to do with the government directly.

States can compete through various low tax/regulation regimes, or through higher tax regimes that promote better education and/or other better qualities of life that encourage highly skilled people to move to a state. Or, through some balance of the two. Urban studies professor Richard Florida has written extensively on this.

Tennesse, after years of promoting advanced education has promoted itself as a low tax and low wage state and has succeeded in bringing many companies looking for that to their state. What should be obvious though, is that if every state decided to compete on that model, the 'low wage and low tax' advantage for this one state would be lost.

There is only an advantage if only a handful of states follow that model. If more states try to adapt a low tax, wage and regulation model, that only leads to what is often referred to as a 'race to the bottom.'

I hope some people have a better understanding from this little economic lesson on diminishing returns.