How will the Democratic Party look by 2032?

[Skill and Chance]

The decline of trust in government will mean that some of their policies, like raising taxes or general fiscal progressivism, will be less emphasized. They will probably lean in to popular secular beliefs, particularly on abortion and perhaps also on LGBT issues; more speculatively, on drug legalization and perhaps sex-work associated issues. Since they will be trying to keep support from people with high social trust, one exception to the general decline in economic leftism will be continued strong support for unions (though this may not be super relevant), and also the most classic cross-cultural high-trust party positioning: becoming the party of the military. (2032 may be kind of early for this -- although maybe not -- but I really do expect Democrats to maintain relevance by going in a militaristic and interventionist angle over the next few decades.)

Do Republicans go (relatively) to the left on economics in this scenario?  Like paid maternity leave laws passing in red states?  Maybe some flirting with UBI in declining manufacturing areas?  There are now some elected R's making "the corporations are out to get you" a significant part of their platform, which is new.  A significant factor in this would be that their base demographic is transitioning from peak earning years to retirement, which would make supporting Medicare and Social Security at current benefits levels or higher seem pretty darn important.

That, plus what you are saying about Democrats all seemed likely to me back in 2016-17, but then Republicans strongly took the libertarian position on COVID and Biden ran as more of a traditional New Deal Dem on economics than Clinton and improved pretty dramatically with seniors.  On the other hand, COVID will (God willing) be completely irrelevant in elections held 10 years from now.  Abortion will cut the other way though and could give Dems another chance with libertarians.

Another significant factor will be whether we eventually see a grand bargain on climate change.   Republicans are about to be completely dependent on Florida to win presidential elections after all.

[Skill and Chance]

Elizabeth Warren I think is probably a good personification of what it'll look like ideologically.  More progressive than Biden but not as far to the left as Sanders.

At one time I thought this, but she has been so remarkably ineffective vs. 2016 era expectations.

[Skill and Chance]

The decline of trust in government will mean that some of their policies, like raising taxes or general fiscal progressivism, will be less emphasized. They will probably lean in to popular secular beliefs, particularly on abortion and perhaps also on LGBT issues; more speculatively, on drug legalization and perhaps sex-work associated issues. Since they will be trying to keep support from people with high social trust, one exception to the general decline in economic leftism will be continued strong support for unions (though this may not be super relevant), and also the most classic cross-cultural high-trust party positioning: becoming the party of the military. (2032 may be kind of early for this -- although maybe not -- but I really do expect Democrats to maintain relevance by going in a militaristic and interventionist angle over the next few decades.)

Do Republicans go (relatively) to the left on economics in this scenario?  Like paid maternity leave laws passing in red states?  Maybe some flirting with UBI in declining manufacturing areas?  There are now some elected R's making "the corporations are out to get you" a significant part of their platform, which is new.  A significant factor in this would be that their base demographic is transitioning from peak earning years to retirement, which would make supporting Medicare and Social Security at current benefits levels or higher seem pretty darn important.

That, plus what you are saying about Democrats all seemed likely to me back in 2016-17, but then Republicans strongly took the libertarian position on COVID and Biden ran as more of a traditional New Deal Dem on economics than Clinton and improved pretty dramatically with seniors.  On the other hand, COVID will (God willing) be completely irrelevant in elections held 10 years from now.  Abortion will cut the other way though and could give Dems another chance with libertarians.

Another significant factor will be whether we eventually see a grand bargain on climate change.   Republicans are about to be completely dependent on Florida to win presidential elections after all.

That last thing you said is very interesting and important and generally why people think Dennis is a "moderate", or at least that he was one at first. Climate Change. Whether this comes to past heavily depends on whether practical needs will win out. Sometimes they do very predictably, other times the don't.

But yeah. It will be interesting to see as Democrats try to court more libertarians on social issues and neocons on foreign policy and Republicans keep trying to poach the poor and near poor from the Democrats.

It also feels like economic issues will be much less polarized in another 20 years (especially with the parties coming together on things like heightening the tax base, infrastructure, some industrial regulation/policy, and some sort of welfare state), but social issues and foreign policy could be huge.

Business Republicans being able to drag Trump to a libertarian position on COVID after the first few weeks and Dems taking the hawkish position in response really threw me for a loop given that older voters should rationally value protective measures more and stay-at-home parents should rationally be the most tolerant of long term school closures.  That and the inflation made things snap back a bit.  However, that looks more and more like an aberration and I think things are getting back on 2018 trend now.

Do you mean DeSantis?  A string of Republican nominees not being from drilling states since Bush and Palin probably helps on the climate compromise front. 

[Skill and Chance]

You will have a lot more socialists in power, especially as the country continues to decline economically, debt explodes and young people who should be improving financially over time, do not.

Ehhh... youth wages pretty clearly aren't the problem anymore.  This analysis has a very 2012 vibe.