PA-SEN (Momentive AI/Center Street PAC): Fetterman +14

[wbrocks67]

RV: Fetterman 48%, Oz 32%, Undecided 20%
LV: Fetterman 52%, Oz 38%, Undecided 10%

Republicans: Oz 62%, Fetterman 19%, Undecided 19%
Democrats: Fetterman 80%, Oz 6%, Undecided 14%
Independents: Fetterman 44%, Oz 19%, Undecided 37%

2020 voters: Fetterman 50%, Oz 33%, Undecided 17%
2020 Trump voters: Oz 63%, Fetterman 17%, Undecided 20%
2020 Biden voters: Fetterman 83%, Oz 6%, Undecided 11%

Favorabilities:
Fetterman: 46/32 (+16)
Oz: 26/53 (-27)

https://centerstreetpac.com/poll-fetterman-leads-dr-oz-in-pennsylvania/

[wbrocks67]

Obvious trouble for Oz here is those continued horrific favorabilities, but also the fact that Fetterman is grabbing nearly 20% of Republicans/Trump voters in this poll, while Oz only grabs 6% of Democrats.

19% of Rs and 20% of Trump voters are undecided, so Oz will catch up some, but 14% of Ds and 11% of Biden voters also undecided so Fetterman has room to grow as well.

And that Fetterman +25 with Indies is also.. phew.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

So high undecideds and Oz obviously isn't winning by double-digits (or anywhere near double-digits).  This race is still close in my VERY professional appraisal. 

Still, that 19% (R) for Fetterman (and 17% of Trump-2020 voters for Fetterman) is pretty staggering. 

Now before my resident poll-critic peeps get riled up, yes this is just one poll and we must not take it at face value.  But Oz is in trouble right now.  There's still time to pull out of the tailspin, but he needs to change his trajectory. 

[Xing]

There’s no way the margin is anything like this, though it really does seem like this race could defy the national environment, and that Fetterman could win (narrowly) even if Democrats are having a very bad night. There’s still time for Oz to turn this around and the environment might save him, though I might unironically say that this race actually could end up similar to FL-SEN 2018, much as I dislike the inclination many have to analyze races as “reduxes.”

[Person Man]

It’s not going to be this bad for Oz, but face it. He’s losing. This isn’t saying that he will lose.

[Sir Mohamed]

14 pts? Press X for doubt.

Oz is getting A LOT more than 62% of the GOP vote. This poll may confirm others though, that R enthusiasm in PA is not that great with 3 months out. Oz and Mastriano are horrible candidates. If they still win, it's only because fundamentals bailed them out.

[Pollster]

"Momentive AI" is SurveyMonkey's new name, by the way.

In my opinion the most concerning sign for R's here is not Oz's awful favorable numbers and lack of GOP consolidation but rather that Fetterman still has non-negligible room to grow with Democrats.

[Person Man]

Fetterman winning will send a message to a lot of people.

[wbrocks67]

"Momentive AI" is SurveyMonkey's new name, by the way.

In my opinion the most concerning sign for R's here is not Oz's awful favorable numbers and lack of GOP consolidation but rather that Fetterman still has non-negligible room to grow with Democrats.

Got any general insights on this race, too?

[Sbane]

Do I think Fetterman will win by 14 points? No. Do I think Fetterman will win? Yes.

[Sir Mohamed]

Fetterman winning will send a message to a lot of people.

Including Dem officials and campaign stategists. What he's doing here could be seen as some kind of playbook for future election. Not run on "orange man bad", but against elitism and focus on economic issues and policies that help average people.

[TodayJunior]

How could anyone not have seen Oz as an abysmal candidate is beyond me.

[GALeftist]

Really is pretty astonishing how unhelpful Oz's name rec has been. Before I saw any polling, I thought he would be above replacement value.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ivanka Trump said she rather see Oz than McCormick and the people Oz Appeal to are Ds anyways not Rs that's why Ds voted for him in the primary



Now, it has backfired on Rs they are gonna lose this seat just like they are in trouble in OH, and NC and just because Trump won PA, OH and MC doesn't mean Rs are gonna win it every cycle

[MT Treasurer]

When even I need to remind myself of Senate control to reluctantly come around to supporting Oz, you can sort of figure out how the (less politically aware/engaged) average swing voter must be feeling about Oz. The worst candidate Republicans have nominated in a high-profile Senate race since Morrisey, and arguably since Akin/Moore.

The biggest problem with the comparisons between this race and the 2016 presidential election is that Fetterman simply does not have historically low favorability ratings/the absurd baggage that Hillary Clinton had.

[Mr. Illini]

Hell yeah! F*** him up!

[Alben Barkley]

Really is pretty astonishing how unhelpful Oz's name rec has been. Before I saw any polling, I thought he would be above replacement value.

I would argue it’s not just unhelpful, it’s actively harmful. Who would have thought a sleazy TV snake oil salesman from New Jersey wouldn’t be the strongest candidate in the world? And turns out all those who assumed “suburban women” would vote for him in droves because of the Oprah connection might not be political geniuses after all…

[GeorgiaModerate]

"Momentive AI" is SurveyMonkey's new name, by the way.

I guess they were tired of monkeyin' around.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Really is pretty astonishing how unhelpful Oz's name rec has been. Before I saw any polling, I thought he would be above replacement value.

I would argue it’s not just unhelpful, it’s actively harmful. Who would have thought a sleazy TV snake oil salesman from New Jersey wouldn’t be the strongest candidate in the world? And turns out all those who assumed “suburban women” would vote for him in droves because of the Oprah connection might not be political geniuses after all…

I will admit I am one of these idiots as I thought Oz was electable cause I thought his show would  have made him do better in these suburban areas

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Really is pretty astonishing how unhelpful Oz's name rec has been. Before I saw any polling, I thought he would be above replacement value.

I would argue it’s not just unhelpful, it’s actively harmful. Who would have thought a sleazy TV snake oil salesman from New Jersey wouldn’t be the strongest candidate in the world? And turns out all those who assumed “suburban women” would vote for him in droves because of the Oprah connection might not be political geniuses after all…

I will admit I am one of these idiots as I thought Oz was electable cause I thought his show would  have made him do better in these suburban areas

You weren't an idiot. Sometimes even the smartest people throw a dart and it doesn't even hit the bullseye.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Really is pretty astonishing how unhelpful Oz's name rec has been. Before I saw any polling, I thought he would be above replacement value.

I would argue it’s not just unhelpful, it’s actively harmful. Who would have thought a sleazy TV snake oil salesman from New Jersey wouldn’t be the strongest candidate in the world? And turns out all those who assumed “suburban women” would vote for him in droves because of the Oprah connection might not be political geniuses after all…

I will admit I am one of these idiots as I thought Oz was electable cause I thought his show would  have made him do better in these suburban areas

You weren't an idiot. Sometimes even the smartest people throw a dart and it doesn't even hit the bullseye.

Thanks but yah the reason I thought so was cause my mom and her friends who usually are democrats were talking how great Oz was and how they think he’d be a great senator . They were all huge fans of his show too

[GeorgiaModerate]

Really is pretty astonishing how unhelpful Oz's name rec has been. Before I saw any polling, I thought he would be above replacement value.

I would argue it’s not just unhelpful, it’s actively harmful. Who would have thought a sleazy TV snake oil salesman from New Jersey wouldn’t be the strongest candidate in the world? And turns out all those who assumed “suburban women” would vote for him in droves because of the Oprah connection might not be political geniuses after all…

I will admit I am one of these idiots as I thought Oz was electable cause I thought his show would  have made him do better in these suburban areas

You weren't an idiot. Sometimes even the smartest people throw a dart and it doesn't even hit the bullseye.

Thanks but yah the reason I thought so was cause my mom and her friends who usually are democrats were talking how great Oz was and how they think he’d be a great senator . They were all huge fans of his show too

Perhaps Oz should have run in Oregon instead.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Really is pretty astonishing how unhelpful Oz's name rec has been. Before I saw any polling, I thought he would be above replacement value.

I would argue it’s not just unhelpful, it’s actively harmful. Who would have thought a sleazy TV snake oil salesman from New Jersey wouldn’t be the strongest candidate in the world? And turns out all those who assumed “suburban women” would vote for him in droves because of the Oprah connection might not be political geniuses after all…

I will admit I am one of these idiots as I thought Oz was electable cause I thought his show would  have made him do better in these suburban areas

You weren't an idiot. Sometimes even the smartest people throw a dart and it doesn't even hit the bullseye.

Thanks but yah the reason I thought so was cause my mom and her friends who usually are democrats were talking how great Oz was and how they think he’d be a great senator . They were all huge fans of his show too

Oz was likely to either do very well, or very badly. The former looked quite likely at the start, but the latter looks quite likely now.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Really is pretty astonishing how unhelpful Oz's name rec has been. Before I saw any polling, I thought he would be above replacement value.

I would argue it’s not just unhelpful, it’s actively harmful. Who would have thought a sleazy TV snake oil salesman from New Jersey wouldn’t be the strongest candidate in the world? And turns out all those who assumed “suburban women” would vote for him in droves because of the Oprah connection might not be political geniuses after all…

I will admit I am one of these idiots as I thought Oz was electable cause I thought his show would  have made him do better in these suburban areas

You weren't an idiot. Sometimes even the smartest people throw a dart and it doesn't even hit the bullseye.

Thanks but yah the reason I thought so was cause my mom and her friends who usually are democrats were talking how great Oz was and how they think he’d be a great senator . They were all huge fans of his show too

Oz was likely to either do very well, or very badly. The former looked quite likely at the start, but the latter looks quite likely now.

Yah that’s fair

[President Johnson]

This will be not near the final result, though it's becoming a pattern at this point. Oz is certainly in trouble and will lose if he can't get his act together or if the environment doesn't get worse for Democrats.

His weak numbers among Republicans pretty much explain the margin, but I doubt Fetterman gets 17% of Trump voters.