AZ-SEN (Beacon Research): Kelly +10-12 (LV)

[wbrocks67]

July 5-20, sponsored by Environmental Voter Project

RV: Kelly 48, Lamon 34
LV: Kelly 50, Lamon 40

RV: Kelly 49, Brnovich 35
LV: Kelly 51, Brnovich 40

RV: Kelly 49, Masters 34
LV: Kelly 51, Masters 39

https://www.environmentalvoter.org/sites/default/files/documents/july-2022-survey-topline-data.pdf

Beacon Research is also one half of the Fox News polling outfit

[AncestralDemocrat.]

"Environmental voter project".. so it's a push poll.

[wbrocks67]

"Environmental voter project".. so it's a push poll.

Pretty sure Beacon Research doesn't do push polls. You can take a look at the cross tabs yourself and see that it's not.

Not to mention, this isn't a D-leaning poll. The GCBs across the board aren't really that great for Ds here. I think if anything these polls are showing that Candidate quality across the board is really outweighing the partisan baseline/GCB in these states.

[SnowLabrador]

I think the Arizona Senate race will tighten after the primary. See: Indiana, 2018.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

"Environmental voter project".. so it's a push poll.

Pretty sure Beacon Research doesn't do push polls. You can take a look at the cross tabs yourself and see that it's not.

Not to mention, this isn't a D-leaning poll. The GCBs across the board aren't really that great for Ds here. I think if anything these polls are showing that Candidate quality across the board is really outweighing the partisan baseline/GCB in these states.

Your argument for "candidate quality" doesn't exactly hold much weight here given the consensus more electable candidate in the gov race, Robson, is performing as bad as Kari Lake.. same goes with Lamon.

It's a poll conducted for a environmental group, it's a push poll.. I would say the same if a poll was produced for a group advocating for fossil fuels.

[wbrocks67]

"Environmental voter project".. so it's a push poll.

Pretty sure Beacon Research doesn't do push polls. You can take a look at the cross tabs yourself and see that it's not.

Not to mention, this isn't a D-leaning poll. The GCBs across the board aren't really that great for Ds here. I think if anything these polls are showing that Candidate quality across the board is really outweighing the partisan baseline/GCB in these states.

Your argument for "candidate quality" doesn't exactly hold much weight here given the consensus more electable candidate in the gov race, Robson, is performing as bad as Kari Lake.. same goes with Lamon.

It's a poll conducted for a environmental group, it's a push poll.. I would say the same if a poll was produced for a group advocating for fossil fuels.

Or maybe - just maybe - in those instances all the candidates are pretty much on the same level as bad in voters eyes? It's quite possible that while we believe Lake is more horrid than Robson, that voters also have different views of them but ultimately kind of cancel out each other.

The point is that this isn't some D-boosted poll. There's quite a few results here (esp in NV-GOV and GA-GOV as well as the GCBs) that aren't great for Dems, so.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ha wasn't this supposed to be Lean R the compiled map got it Lean R just like they had KY Lean R and it was Lean D, lesson for Rs Beshear will win again and so will Ryan and Brown and Manchin in red Appalachian

[Sir Mohamed]

I think the Arizona Senate race will tighten after the primary. See: Indiana, 2018.

Kind of natural when Kelly is ahead by double digits. He's not winning by that much. Most undecideds here would certainly go R, though that would still be a Kelly victory unless things get worse in the fall for him. As of now, he's in a good shape, although this margin isn't happening.

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, I think these margins are more of a product of an unsettled primary than anything. When the nominee is chosen, I'm sure Rs will shore up a bit.

However, great to see Kelly at or near 50 in all of these.

And another case, just like with PA, GA, etc., where even with that being said, Masters is a rather stinker of a candidate here.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There is a myth all the decides go R how did Ossoff and WARNOCK won on Provision ballots and Evers and Beshear won on provisions ballots, Bevin was ahead and so was Walker until the 300 K Provisional ballots were counted and it's simply that rural votes are counted first and urban votes are counted last don't be surprised if Evers or Crist are behind or Rand Paul leads by 11 those are rural votes and only VBM urban ballot no provision ballots or same day voting and Crist or Fried are gonna do better than Biden in Miami Dade

[AncestralDemocrat.]

So Beacon Research is involved with Fox Polling...

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1301280020682412034?t=rgR9omIeIf8Si9x...
Very reminiscent.

[GeorgiaModerate]

So Beacon Research is involved with Fox Polling...

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1301280020682412034?t=rgR9omIeIf8Si9x...
Very reminiscent.

Do you have any reason to follow the polling forums other than to belittle the polls and the users who post them?

[AncestralDemocrat.]

So Beacon Research is involved with Fox Polling...

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1301280020682412034?t=rgR9omIeIf8Si9x...
Very reminiscent.

Do you have any reason to follow the polling forums other than to belittle the polls and the users who post them?

When have I belittled any user ? Quite a accusation to make with no real justification behind it.. given I have 5 reported posts and only one moderated in my entire time on the forum.

In regards to the polls, of course, I'll belittle them until the industry actually has a accurate cycle of data.. it's logical to question something which is repeatedly wrong.

[wbrocks67]

So Beacon Research is involved with Fox Polling...

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1301280020682412034?t=rgR9omIeIf8Si9x...
Very reminiscent.

Do you have any reason to follow the polling forums other than to belittle the polls and the users who post them?

When have I belittled any user ? Quite a accusation to make with no real justification behind it.. given I have 5 reported posts and only one moderated in my entire time on the forum.

In regards to the polls, of course, I'll belittle them until the industry actually has a accurate cycle of data.. it's logical to question something which is repeatedly wrong.

They just did with GA-SEN 2021 and VA-SEN 2021... Both those averages were as on point as you could get.

[Pollster]

No comment on the methodology/reliability of these polls, but I don't think I've heard the term "push poll" used correctly by anybody of any political persuasion in ~15 years.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

So Beacon Research is involved with Fox Polling...

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1301280020682412034?t=rgR9omIeIf8Si9x...
Very reminiscent.

Do you have any reason to follow the polling forums other than to belittle the polls and the users who post them?

When have I belittled any user ? Quite a accusation to make with no real justification behind it.. given I have 5 reported posts and only one moderated in my entire time on the forum.

In regards to the polls, of course, I'll belittle them until the industry actually has a accurate cycle of data.. it's logical to question something which is repeatedly wrong.

They just did with GA-SEN 2021 and VA-SEN 2021... Both those averages were as on point as you could get.

And New Jersey? Murphy average was +8..

I did clarify in that PA thread that Southern polling (apart from Florida) seems to be the one bright spot in the industry.

[wbrocks67]

So Beacon Research is involved with Fox Polling...

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1301280020682412034?t=rgR9omIeIf8Si9x...
Very reminiscent.

Do you have any reason to follow the polling forums other than to belittle the polls and the users who post them?

When have I belittled any user ? Quite a accusation to make with no real justification behind it.. given I have 5 reported posts and only one moderated in my entire time on the forum.

In regards to the polls, of course, I'll belittle them until the industry actually has a accurate cycle of data.. it's logical to question something which is repeatedly wrong.

They just did with GA-SEN 2021 and VA-SEN 2021... Both those averages were as on point as you could get.

And New Jersey? Murphy average was +8..

I did clarify in that PA thread that Southern polling (apart from Florida) seems to be the one bright spot in the industry.

Polling averages at least got Murphy's % vote share about correct.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Rs fail to realize the obvious that Kelly is gonna win

[Alben Barkley]

"Environmental voter project".. so it's a push poll.

Pretty sure Beacon Research doesn't do push polls. You can take a look at the cross tabs yourself and see that it's not.

Not to mention, this isn't a D-leaning poll. The GCBs across the board aren't really that great for Ds here. I think if anything these polls are showing that Candidate quality across the board is really outweighing the partisan baseline/GCB in these states.

But that's impossible! MT Treasurer assured me candidate quality doesn't matter at all!

[Senator Incitatus]

So Beacon Research is involved with Fox Polling...

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1301280020682412034?t=rgR9omIeIf8Si9x...
Very reminiscent.

Do you have any reason to follow the polling forums other than to belittle the polls and the users who post them?

We’re getting to the point where a serious elections forum should not have dedicated polling subfora. Public polling is a niche obsession collateral to actual elections.

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: Arizona Senator by Other Source on 2022-07-20

Summary: D: 51%, R: 39%, U: 10%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details