NC SEN PEM MANAGEMENT BEASLEY LEADS

[MT Treasurer]

The problem with the theory that these polls are actual harbingers of a "candidate quality wave" in the sense that Republican Senate candidates will dramatically underperform the HPV/generic Republican strength due to their extreme ideological positions and/or their poor favorability ratings is that it doesn’t explain races like this or NV, where Republican candidates have far fewer "glaring issues" in terms of their "quality" and yet still perform way below where you would expect them to perform given the fundamentals of the year and their respective states. Given that the polling available to us shows Democrats with similar 'overperformances' in NC/NV/IA/MO/etc. as in races with more "controversial" Republican candidates, it’s highly likely that this is a (and yet another) systemic issue.