1920 election if Charles Evans Hughes is president
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  1920 election if Charles Evans Hughes is president
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Asenath Waite
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« on: July 28, 2022, 04:14:02 PM »

What does the 1920 election look like if Hughes wins in 1916? I’m guessing that he’d take the US into WWI and would likely be somewhat unpopular come election time though I’m not sure he’d be as much so as Wilson.
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Fuzzy Stands With His Friend, Chairman Sanchez
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« Reply #1 on: July 30, 2022, 07:49:56 PM »

Hughes would likely have taken the US into WWI.  Unlike Wilson, he would likely have gotten the League of Nations Treaty ratified.  

Part of that would have been because Hughes would not have had a debilitating stroke.  Part of that would have been because Hughes would not have killed the treaty over partisan considerations.

What many people don't seem to realize is that it was WOODROW WILSON that blocked the ratification of the treaty.  Henry Cabot Lodge (whom Wilson hated on an intensely personal level) got the GOP to attach a number of "Reservations" to the treaty.  The "Reservations" didn't amount to a Hill of Beans, but they were, as Prof. Thomas Bailey observed, a Republican wrapper to Wilson's loaf of bread.  Wilson wanted a Democratic wrapper, and he instructed Senate Democrats to vote against the Treaty.  When it was killed, Lodge refused to bring it up again.

Charles Evans Hughes would have not let such considerations get in the way of ratification of the treaty.  He would have made his peace with the isolationists in his own party.  Indeed, this accomplishment would have mitigated the harsh peace terms imposed on Germany which led to the sort of resentment that led to the rise of the Nazis and Hitler.  And Wilson's stubbornness was exacerbated by his stroke.  Hughes would not have had that problem, either.

Hughes would have been elected by the solid margins Republican Presidents were re-elected back then.
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MichaelRbn
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« Reply #2 on: July 31, 2022, 09:09:32 AM »

Without Wilson and his Fourteen Points, why would the Treaty of Versailles even have a League of Nations?
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ModerateRadical
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« Reply #3 on: August 04, 2022, 09:47:43 PM »

It's an interesting scenario, the more I think about it. I assume that there would be some level of German-American backlash against the party in power, although it might be more muted due to existing GOP strength in the Midwest at the time. If I recall correctly, there was a small depression around 1920, which would have likely hurt the GOP. Additionally, I'm not sure how the First Red Scare plays out under a Hughes administration, assuming that swings the electorate much at all (my best guess would be 'maybe', considering there was an element of nativist bigotry in the backlash against perceived political radicals, like the kind later seen in the Sacco and Vanzetti trial, that might affect some ethnic groups' voting behavior).

I think Hughes still wins, but the Midwest could be a wild card, especially if Democrats still nominate James M. Cox. Eugene Debs probably still takes 3% or so of the popular vote. A lot of variables involved, but the end result is significantly closer than Harding's landslide IOTL. I'd guess maybe a 3-6% PV win for Hughes overall?
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Asenath Waite
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« Reply #4 on: August 10, 2022, 12:00:21 AM »

It's an interesting scenario, the more I think about it. I assume that there would be some level of German-American backlash against the party in power, although it might be more muted due to existing GOP strength in the Midwest at the time. If I recall correctly, there was a small depression around 1920, which would have likely hurt the GOP. Additionally, I'm not sure how the First Red Scare plays out under a Hughes administration, assuming that swings the electorate much at all (my best guess would be 'maybe', considering there was an element of nativist bigotry in the backlash against perceived political radicals, like the kind later seen in the Sacco and Vanzetti trial, that might affect some ethnic groups' voting behavior).

I think Hughes still wins, but the Midwest could be a wild card, especially if Democrats still nominate James M. Cox. Eugene Debs probably still takes 3% or so of the popular vote. A lot of variables involved, but the end result is significantly closer than Harding's landslide IOTL. I'd guess maybe a 3-6% PV win for Hughes overall?

I agree, I also think that prohibition would be a factor. In our world it was blamed equally on both parties but in this the GOP would be solely to blame and this would probably lead to Cox holding onto the big cities which means a narrower margin in Massachusetts and New York and possibly his outright flipping Maryland.
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mianfei
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« Reply #5 on: February 28, 2023, 08:38:27 AM »

I agree, I also think that prohibition would be a factor. In our world it was blamed equally on both parties but in this the GOP would be solely to blame and this would probably lead to Cox holding onto the big cities which means a narrower margin in Massachusetts and New York and possibly his outright flipping Maryland.
Would Hughes have enacted Prohibition?
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Death of a Salesman
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« Reply #6 on: February 28, 2023, 02:39:34 PM »

Assuming James Cox is still the Democratic nominee, we probably see a German backlash in the Midwest but a solid GOP performance in the East and Mid-Atlantic. Still, I think the war would drag him down from his 1916 performance, which was already mediocre, and Cox would be hard to paint as a radical. I suspect we'd see a fairly typical Democratic victory.

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Agonized-Statism
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« Reply #7 on: February 28, 2023, 02:54:31 PM »


President Charles Hughes (R-NY) / Vice President Charles Fairbanks (R-IN)
Fmr. Secretary of the Treasury William McAdoo (D-CA) / Governor James Cox (D-OH) ✔

Wilson avoids a stroke but decides not to run and his heir apparent wins amid the chaos of post-WWI America. Debs does well too.
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Pres Mike
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« Reply #8 on: March 06, 2023, 08:32:48 PM »

Hughes would likely have taken the US into WWI.  Unlike Wilson, he would likely have gotten the League of Nations Treaty ratified.  

Part of that would have been because Hughes would not have had a debilitating stroke.  Part of that would have been because Hughes would not have killed the treaty over partisan considerations.

What many people don't seem to realize is that it was WOODROW WILSON that blocked the ratification of the treaty.  Henry Cabot Lodge (whom Wilson hated on an intensely personal level) got the GOP to attach a number of "Reservations" to the treaty.  The "Reservations" didn't amount to a Hill of Beans, but they were, as Prof. Thomas Bailey observed, a Republican wrapper to Wilson's loaf of bread.  Wilson wanted a Democratic wrapper, and he instructed Senate Democrats to vote against the Treaty.  When it was killed, Lodge refused to bring it up again.

Charles Evans Hughes would have not let such considerations get in the way of ratification of the treaty.  He would have made his peace with the isolationists in his own party.  Indeed, this accomplishment would have mitigated the harsh peace terms imposed on Germany which led to the sort of resentment that led to the rise of the Nazis and Hitler.  And Wilson's stubbornness was exacerbated by his stroke.  Hughes would not have had that problem, either.

Hughes would have been elected by the solid margins Republican Presidents were re-elected back then.
A quick read on wikipedia, and the Lodge reservations was basically what the US has with the UN today

1. The US can leave the League for any reason regardless of prior obligation
2. The US has no obligation to defend another nation's integity even with a League vote
3.The US has no obligation to administer mandates like Syria or Nambia
4. The US has sole judicial juridiction over its land
5.The Monroe Doctrine must still exist
7. Congress must vote on the US rep to the League
8. The US will control its trade with Germany
9. The US has no obligation to pay money to the League
10. The US has no obligation to limit its military
11. Citizens of other nations that break the League's rules can live in the US
13. If the League forms new organizations, the US doesn't have to join
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #9 on: March 06, 2023, 08:50:44 PM »

Wilson doesn't have a stroke, runs again, pulls a Cleveland.
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