NJ-Senate 2008: Christie will Not Run

[Conan]

http://www.nj.com/newsflash/topstories/index.ssf?/base/news-23/116829510530590.xml&storylist=

That leaves the possible republican candidate list very short.

[Verily]

So, will it be Kean, Jr. or Forrester who they drag out and prop up again?

[Conan]

So, will it be Kean, Jr. or Forrester who they drag out and prop up again?

Some people say State Assemblyman Baroni.

[Conan]

http://www.politicsnj.com/senate2008.htm
Those are some possible republican challengers.
Yea, GOP def. wasted 7 million here. You could have held VA and MT with that. Maybe even more.

[© tweed]

Remember at this time 2 years ago, people like Sherrod Brown and Bob Casey said they weren't running.  And now they're sitting in Washington.  So don't put too much stock into these things saying that Rybak and Christie won't run - they might.

Of course this is New Jersey, so the Dems could nominate some satanic version of Michael Jackson and still win handily.

[MAS117]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Jersey_United_States_Senate_election%2C_2008

[Conan]

Remember at this time 2 years ago, people like Sherrod Brown and Bob Casey said they weren't running.  And now they're sitting in Washington.  So don't put too much stock into these things saying that Rybak and Christie won't run - they might.

Of course this is New Jersey, so the Dems could nominate some satanic version of Michael Jackson and still win handily.

Well the point is in the article that if Christie remains as US Attorney through early 2008, he won't have the money to run and since he has decided to stay until then at least he has effectively killed his candidacy (he'll need around 15,000,000 to run a credible campaign.) because under law US Attorneys can't run for office while keeping their jobs.

[MAS117]

http://www.politicsnj.com/senate2008.htm
Those are some possible republican challengers.
Yea, GOP def. wasted 7 million here. You could have held VA and MT with that. Maybe even more.

That list is really old. You can take Christie, Murphy (probably running for Governor), and Leiter off that list. Kean is too damaged to run in 08, hed never win. If he couldnt beat Menendez hes not beating Frank. I also doubt that LoBiondo will run for the Senate.

[Conan]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Jersey_United_States_Senate_election%2C_2008

Nice job on that.

[© tweed]

I think a Kean re-run is most likely, although I agree that he basically can't win.  Other than Kean and Christie there are no prospective candidates with a prayer.

[MAS117]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Jersey_United_States_Senate_election%2C_2008

Nice job on that.

Thank you sir.

[Conan]

http://www.politicsnj.com/senate2008.htm
Those are some possible republican challengers.
Yea, GOP def. wasted 7 million here. You could have held VA and MT with that. Maybe even more.

That list is really old. You can take Christie, Murphy (probably running for Governor), and Leiter off that list. Kean is too damaged to run in 08, hed never win. If he couldnt beat Menendez hes not beating Frank. I also doubt that LoBiondo will run for the Senate.

THey have like 30 lists made updated. I think that was their last one which came out after the elections.

[Conan]

I think a Kean re-run is most likely, although I agree that he basically can't win.  Other than Kean and Christie there are no prospective candidates with a prayer.

Kean Sr. maybe, but he won't run and he'd lose anyway. Bill Gormley possibly?

[MAS117]

I think a Kean re-run is most likely, although I agree that he basically can't win.  Other than Kean and Christie there are no prospective candidates with a prayer.

Kean Sr. maybe, but he won't run and he'd lose anyway. Bill Gormley possibly?

Senior is not running, and Bill Gormley is definitly not running. No way Gormley wins statewide.

[Conan]

I think a Kean re-run is most likely, although I agree that he basically can't win.  Other than Kean and Christie there are no prospective candidates with a prayer.

Kean Sr. maybe, but he won't run and he'd lose anyway. Bill Gormley possibly?

Senior is not running, and Bill Gormley is definitly not running. No way Gormley wins statewide.

The sad thing is with the NJGOP is that Dems may actually pick up seats in our state elections this year and they are slightly similar to the 109th congress. NJ just doesnt have anyone to replace some with. Pathetic.

[MAS117]

I think it might be Baroni, but I feel like he wants the Governorship and not the Senate seat. If thats the case hed have to run against John Murphy who won a quasi-victory in the GOP Primary by getting over 10%.

[sethm0]

Republicans should not even try this time.  New Jersey always lets us down in the end.

Just like with girls, the best thing to do for New Jersey is just to ignore it... it'll come crawling back, begging for attention after we invest in more reliable states like Louisiana or Iowa.

 Good post. In more political science-y terms, the NJ Dems have really got winning down to a science in that state. They know how to turn their people out in just the write numbers to win by a reliable 10%. The only x-factor is candidate recruitment - who will they get to run? Andrews, perhaps, or Codey or Pallone?

[Conan]

Republicans should not even try this time.  New Jersey always lets us down in the end.

Just like with girls, the best thing to do for New Jersey is just to ignore it... it'll come crawling back, begging for attention after we invest in more reliable states like Louisiana or Iowa.

 Good post. In more political science-y terms, the NJ Dems have really got winning down to a science in that state. They know how to turn their people out in just the write numbers to win by a reliable 10%. The only x-factor is candidate recruitment - who will they get to run? Andrews, perhaps, or Codey or Pallone?

It's Lautenberg.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I doubt Kean, Jr. would want to lose twice and screw any political future at the House (what district does he live in?) or maybe Governor (though he probably can't win that either). Most likely the GOP will end up running some joke similar to Faso or Spencer.

[Verily]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Jersey_United_States_Senate_election%2C_2008

Nice job on that.

Thank you sir.

It would be great if LoBiondo ran; the Democrats would probably take his House seat and he'd lose the Senate race!

I doubt Kean, Jr. would want to lose twice and screw any political future at the House (what district does he live in?) or maybe Governor (though he probably can't win that either). Most likely the GOP will end up running some joke similar to Faso or Spencer.

Kean lives in NJ-07, where Stender nearly upset Ferguson this year. He's the State Senator for the 21st district, which is mostly contained in the 7th. Interestingly, and I did not know this, he has never been elected to a seat, only reelected; he was appointed to fill a vacancy in the State Assembly in 2001, and then appointed to fill another vacancy in the State Senate 2003. He was reelected in 2003 also. The next election is in 2007.

[Conan]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Jersey_United_States_Senate_election%2C_2008

Nice job on that.

Thank you sir.

It would be great if LoBiondo ran; the Democrats would probably take his House seat and he'd lose the Senate race!

I doubt Kean, Jr. would want to lose twice and screw any political future at the House (what district does he live in?) or maybe Governor (though he probably can't win that either). Most likely the GOP will end up running some joke similar to Faso or Spencer.

Kean lives in NJ-07, where Stender nearly upset Ferguson this year. He's the State Senator for the 21st district, which is mostly contained in the 7th. Interestingly, and I did not know this, he has never been elected to a seat, only reelected; he was appointed to fill a vacancy in the State Assembly in 2001, and then appointed to fill another vacancy in the State Senate 2003. He was reelected in 2003 also. The next election is in 2007.

You can't be reelected without ever having been elected!

[Verily]

I call it reelection if you were in the seat before the election happened. It does give a mild incumbent effect, though not as strong as otherwise. Menendez was reelected, not elected, in 2006, even though he hadn't been elected before (unless you want to make up a word for the fine distinction between having been elected previously and holding the seat but not having been previously elected).

[Conan]

I call it reelection if you were in the seat before the election happened. It does give a mild incumbent effect, though not as strong as otherwise. Menendez was reelected, not elected, in 2006, even though he hadn't been elected before (unless you want to make up a word for the fine distinction between having been elected previously and holding the seat but not having been previously elected).

I know what you mean but it's tricky wording!

[MarkWarner08]

Republicans should not even try this time.  New Jersey always lets us down in the end.

Just like with girls, the best thing to do for New Jersey is just to ignore it... it'll come crawling back, begging for attention after we invest in more reliable states like Louisiana or Iowa.

Sexist.

[HardRCafé]

Republicans should not even try this time.  New Jersey always lets us down in the end.

Just like with girls, the best thing to do for New Jersey is just to ignore it... it'll come crawling back, begging for attention after we invest in more reliable states like Louisiana or Iowa.

I agree with the first but know better than to agree with the second.