POV: 2024 Election Night Coverage
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August 19, 2022, 04:14:30 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

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  POV: 2024 Election Night Coverage
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Author Topic: POV: 2024 Election Night Coverage  (Read 1137 times)
Hardboiled Weevil
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« Reply #25 on: July 30, 2022, 05:27:58 PM »

I made an error with my map, FL-9 was a flip and an easy one for Dems, Darren Soto ran for a rematch and won in a district that the GOP wasn't supposed to win but did somehow in 2022. The house has a net gain of D+1 R-1 seats.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #26 on: July 30, 2022, 05:48:15 PM »

FL and especially VA look quite good for Dems unless those returns are all/disproportionately early votes.
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Hardboiled Weevil
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« Reply #27 on: July 30, 2022, 08:29:12 PM »
« Edited: July 31, 2022, 08:16:22 PM by Badger hasnít crossed enough lines »

8:00
Massachusetts, Connecticut, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, and the District of Colubmia have been called for Joe Biden. Meanwhile we are calling Oklahoma, Alabama, and Tennessee for Donald Trump.
Meanwhile Elizabeth Warren, Chris Murphy, Tom Carper, and Ben Cardin have all won reelection. For the GOP, Marsha Blackburn has won reelection.
Presidential:

65 EVs to 59 EVs



Senate:

30D-46R-1I

+1D -1I









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Skill and Chance
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #28 on: July 30, 2022, 09:03:29 PM »

Hmmm... Virginia continues to look very good for Democrats, and so does Indiana with the lead in Hamilton and hold in St. Joseph.  Lexington, Kentucky also looks like a clear Dem swing from 2020.

New Hampshire and Vermont both look like a clear swing toward Republicans. Georgia looks like it's coming in a bit more Republican than the 2020 results just about everywhere, which would mean a Trump win if that holds, but that could be counting bias.

Florida basically looks like 2020 now.  I expect a non-controversial Republican lead there.

Carolinas way too early to comment. 
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
Progress96
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« Reply #29 on: July 31, 2022, 12:25:09 PM »

Doing this because sometimes, the best part of election night is the suspense. Every post will be 5 minutes of election night coverage, this is a slow burn so feel free to tune out and come back periodically to check it out (just like many on regular election night tbh) I will cover Presidential, Senate, and House races.

Background: With the overturning of Roe vs Wade, Democrats hoped that Biden approval polls which were stagnant in low 30's approval would not be reflective of the actual result of the GCB which showed a near dead tie in polling. Unfortunately, due to a worsening economy (even with inflation reducing, a recession was underway by November) The voters were not so keen to give Democrats power again. 2022 resulted in a national house vote of approximately R+6. Not as bad as many doomers thought, but still more than enough for the GOP to sweep the House and Senate.

2022 House results:
https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=gore


2022 Senate Results:
https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=gosc


Did you mean for Gottheimer/Kim to lose instead of Malinowski?
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Hardboiled Weevil
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« Reply #30 on: July 31, 2022, 02:58:18 PM »

Doing this because sometimes, the best part of election night is the suspense. Every post will be 5 minutes of election night coverage, this is a slow burn so feel free to tune out and come back periodically to check it out (just like many on regular election night tbh) I will cover Presidential, Senate, and House races.

Background: With the overturning of Roe vs Wade, Democrats hoped that Biden approval polls which were stagnant in low 30's approval would not be reflective of the actual result of the GCB which showed a near dead tie in polling. Unfortunately, due to a worsening economy (even with inflation reducing, a recession was underway by November) The voters were not so keen to give Democrats power again. 2022 resulted in a national house vote of approximately R+6. Not as bad as many doomers thought, but still more than enough for the GOP to sweep the House and Senate.

2022 House results:
https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=gore


2022 Senate Results:
https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=gosc


Did you mean for Gottheimer/Kim to lose instead of Malinowski?
Yes definitely. I def made that map in a rush lol.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #31 on: July 31, 2022, 02:59:06 PM »

Doing this because sometimes, the best part of election night is the suspense. Every post will be 5 minutes of election night coverage, this is a slow burn so feel free to tune out and come back periodically to check it out (just like many on regular election night tbh) I will cover Presidential, Senate, and House races.

Background: With the overturning of Roe vs Wade, Democrats hoped that Biden approval polls which were stagnant in low 30's approval would not be reflective of the actual result of the GCB which showed a near dead tie in polling. Unfortunately, due to a worsening economy (even with inflation reducing, a recession was underway by November) The voters were not so keen to give Democrats power again. 2022 resulted in a national house vote of approximately R+6. Not as bad as many doomers thought, but still more than enough for the GOP to sweep the House and Senate.

2022 House results:
https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=gore


2022 Senate Results:
https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=gosc


Did you mean for Gottheimer/Kim to lose instead of Malinowski?
Yes definitely. I def made that map in a rush lol.

Do all three lose then?
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Tekken_Guy
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #32 on: July 31, 2022, 02:59:41 PM »

Doing this because sometimes, the best part of election night is the suspense. Every post will be 5 minutes of election night coverage, this is a slow burn so feel free to tune out and come back periodically to check it out (just like many on regular election night tbh) I will cover Presidential, Senate, and House races.

Background: With the overturning of Roe vs Wade, Democrats hoped that Biden approval polls which were stagnant in low 30's approval would not be reflective of the actual result of the GCB which showed a near dead tie in polling. Unfortunately, due to a worsening economy (even with inflation reducing, a recession was underway by November) The voters were not so keen to give Democrats power again. 2022 resulted in a national house vote of approximately R+6. Not as bad as many doomers thought, but still more than enough for the GOP to sweep the House and Senate.

2022 House results:
https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=gore


2022 Senate Results:
https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=gosc


Did you mean for Gottheimer/Kim to lose instead of Malinowski?
Yes definitely. I def made that map in a rush lol.

Do all three lose then?
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Hardboiled Weevil
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« Reply #33 on: July 31, 2022, 07:58:20 PM »

NJ 7 flips, NJ 5 holds but barely.
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Hardboiled Weevil
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« Reply #34 on: July 31, 2022, 08:21:16 PM »

8:05

With the safe races having been mostly cleared, there is now not much change at this interval, some new house races have been called, none were especially competitive.  Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, and New Hampshire still are all too close to call, even with what we have now. Same for WV, NC, FL, and OH Senate.

Presidential:

65 EVs to 59 EVs




Senate:

30D-46R-1I

+1D -1I



House:


63D-95R
+1D -1R
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #35 on: August 01, 2022, 12:59:04 AM »


What about NJ 3?
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Hardboiled Weevil
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« Reply #36 on: August 01, 2022, 11:15:40 AM »

Kim loses.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
Progress96
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« Reply #37 on: August 02, 2022, 09:48:29 AM »

There must be some leftward trend with Orthodox jews. Because NY-17 and FL-23 hold
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
Progress96
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« Reply #38 on: August 03, 2022, 11:17:57 AM »

How do the governor races go?
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Hardboiled Weevil
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« Reply #39 on: August 06, 2022, 02:42:40 PM »

8:05
An uneventful five minutes, only a safe house race call, but the county map has been updated again.

Presidential:

65 EVs to 59 EVs




Senate:

30D-46R-1I

+1D -1I



House:

64D-95R
+1D -1R
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2016
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« Reply #40 on: August 06, 2022, 04:10:41 PM »

Trendlines & County Maps suggest FL & OH going Republican again. Republican leading in Mahoning County, OH is very bad News for Democrats.
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