POV: 2024 Election Night Coverage

[It’s so Joever]

Doing this because sometimes, the best part of election night is the suspense. Every post will be 5 minutes of election night coverage, this is a slow burn so feel free to tune out and come back periodically to check it out (just like many on regular election night tbh) I will cover Presidential, Senate, and House races.

Background: With the overturning of Roe vs Wade, Democrats hoped that Biden approval polls which were stagnant in low 30's approval would not be reflective of the actual result of the GCB which showed a near dead tie in polling. Unfortunately, due to a worsening economy (even with inflation reducing, a recession was underway by November) The voters were not so keen to give Democrats power again. 2022 resulted in a national house vote of approximately R+6. Not as bad as many doomers thought, but still more than enough for the GOP to sweep the House and Senate.

2022 House results:
https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=gore


2022 Senate Results:
https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=gosc

[It’s so Joever]

After November, things continued to worsen for Democrats. Due to a significant political crisis in China in January 2023, the recession worsened, only resolving in late 2023. However, the GOP began to use 2022 as a belief that their mandate was stronger than it actually was. A series of extremely controversial gun "liberty" and anti-environmental regulation bills at probably the most tone deaf times caused major escalations between Joe Biden and the GOP Congress. These escalations significantly improved Biden's image and he for the first time was seen by Democrats as with a spine. Biden capitalized on the momentum throughout early 2024 along with a recovering economy to improve his standing. His approvals surged and reached 45% approval by June 2024. Meanwhile, the GOP primary ended up a lot shorter than political junkies hoped (Atlas map lovers cried for six months) After 2022 with the strong midterm, Trump felt emboldened to declare his candidacy...and that was mostly that. Although some figures did try to challenge Trump (Haley and Cruz both did) it went about as well as you could expect. By June 2024 the obvious battle began, with Biden/Harris representing the newly motivated and angry Democrats, while Trump/Scott represented the Republican front. The campaign was even more bitter and divisive than 2020, and political violence actually did occur in some parts. Biden also used this as an opportunity to run against the unpopular GOP Congress, hoping his efforts would help Democrats recover their trifecta. Otherwise, major issues included gun control, environmental issues, and of course the economy (which was still in its strong recovery mode) And now it is November, 7:00 EST, and soon the first results will come.

[2016]

An Election Night with Trump on the Ticket is actually boring because he is almost certain to lose.

[It’s so Joever]

An Election Night with Trump on the Ticket is actually boring because he is almost certain to lose.

Strong disagree but you probably already knew that. Either way Trump is definitely not guaranteed to lose in this scenario (but not to win either) It should be close.

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

Alma Adams losing while Jeff Jackson doesn't is comedy gold.

[It’s so Joever]

Alma Adams losing while Jeff Jackson doesn't is comedy gold.

Sorry that was an oversight, they both win lmao. I'm new to creating timelines that aren't completely bonkers.

[It’s so Joever]

7:05 EST

As polls close in the first few states, we are starting to get some interesting results.
We have some calls we feel comfortable making at this hour below:

PRESIDENTIAL BALLOT:

Kentucky: Donald J Trump
Indiana: Donald J Trump
Vermont: Joseph R Biden

3 EVs to 19 EVs (270 required)

SENATE BALLOT:

Vermont: Bill McKibben (D)*

*(Technical flip from I)

25D-44R (50 for majority)
+1 D -1 I

HOUSE BALLOT:

6D-10R (218 for majority)

(0 flips)

Maps:

Presidential (wikipedia colors)


Senate:


House:

[It’s so Joever]

7:10


No new projections have been made at any level. A few more counties are in.

Presidential

3 EVs to 19 EVs (270 required)



Senate

25D-44R
+1 D -1 I



House

6D-10R

(0 Flips)

[MATTROSE94]

Great timeline! BTW, what is the COVID situation in 2024? I assume by then we will be onto the second generation of vaccines and that the only states with mask mandates and other NPIs by then are California, New York, DC, Hawaii, and maybe Oregon if the Democrats hold the governorship in 2022.

[It’s so Joever]

Great timeline! BTW, what is the COVID situation in 2024? I assume by then we will be onto the second generation of vaccines and that the only states with mask mandates and other NPIs by then are California, New York, DC, Hawaii, and maybe Oregon if the Democrats hold the governorship in 2022.

Yes we are on our second Gen of vaccines, but many just don’t get it. We don’t have a mask mandate anywhere really.

[It’s so Joever]

7:15

We have obtained enough data to call a Senate Race and a few more House Races. No flips yet, although it is fascinating to compare this senate election to just six years ago. While Indiana was not close, remember how it was just six years ago? This could bode poorly for Manchin and Tester tonight, both of whom are trying for another term.

Presidential:

3 EVs to 19 EVs (270 required)



Senate:

Indiana: Mike Braun (R)
25D-45R (50 for majority)
+1 D -1 I





House:

7D-12R (218 for majority)

[Tekken_Guy]

After November, things continued to worsen for Democrats. Due to a significant political crisis in China in January 2023, the recession worsened, only resolving in late 2023. However, the GOP began to use 2022 as a belief that their mandate was stronger than it actually was. A series of extremely controversial gun "liberty" and anti-environmental regulation bills at probably the most tone deaf times caused major escalations between Joe Biden and the GOP Congress. These escalations significantly improved Biden's image and he for the first time was seen by Democrats as with a spine. Biden capitalized on the momentum throughout early 2024 along with a recovering economy to improve his standing. His approvals surged and reached 45% approval by June 2024. Meanwhile, the GOP primary ended up a lot shorter than political junkies hoped (Atlas map lovers cried for six months) After 2022 with the strong midterm, Trump felt emboldened to declare his candidacy...and that was mostly that. Although some figures did try to challenge Trump (Haley and Cruz both did) it went about as well as you could expect. By June 2024 the obvious battle began, with Biden/Harris representing the newly motivated and angry Democrats, while Trump/Scott represented the Republican front. The campaign was even more bitter and divisive than 2020, and political violence actually did occur in some parts. Biden also used this as an opportunity to run against the unpopular GOP Congress, hoping his efforts would help Democrats recover their trifecta. Otherwise, major issues included gun control, environmental issues, and of course the economy (which was still in its strong recovery mode) And now it is November, 7:00 EST, and soon the first results will come.

Ted Cruz won't run against Trump.

Did DeSantis run in the primary BTW?

[It’s so Joever]

After November, things continued to worsen for Democrats. Due to a significant political crisis in China in January 2023, the recession worsened, only resolving in late 2023. However, the GOP began to use 2022 as a belief that their mandate was stronger than it actually was. A series of extremely controversial gun "liberty" and anti-environmental regulation bills at probably the most tone deaf times caused major escalations between Joe Biden and the GOP Congress. These escalations significantly improved Biden's image and he for the first time was seen by Democrats as with a spine. Biden capitalized on the momentum throughout early 2024 along with a recovering economy to improve his standing. His approvals surged and reached 45% approval by June 2024. Meanwhile, the GOP primary ended up a lot shorter than political junkies hoped (Atlas map lovers cried for six months) After 2022 with the strong midterm, Trump felt emboldened to declare his candidacy...and that was mostly that. Although some figures did try to challenge Trump (Haley and Cruz both did) it went about as well as you could expect. By June 2024 the obvious battle began, with Biden/Harris representing the newly motivated and angry Democrats, while Trump/Scott represented the Republican front. The campaign was even more bitter and divisive than 2020, and political violence actually did occur in some parts. Biden also used this as an opportunity to run against the unpopular GOP Congress, hoping his efforts would help Democrats recover their trifecta. Otherwise, major issues included gun control, environmental issues, and of course the economy (which was still in its strong recovery mode) And now it is November, 7:00 EST, and soon the first results will come.

Ted Cruz won't run against Trump.

Did DeSantis run in the primary BTW?

Never underestimate the ego of stupid politicians.

Anyways no. DeSantis struck a good deal with Trump basically being promised full support in any future run and if needed in the future, a guaranteed cabinet position of his choice. DeSantis didn’t really want to take the deal tbh but he eventually did out of fear he would lose to Trump in the primary and deciding it would be better to let the Orange man either lose, retire, or croak (whichever would come first)

[It’s so Joever]

7:20
We can call a couple more House races, although these races were pretty much locks anyways, but hey at least the map is coloring ig. A few new counties also are reporting, we seem to be seeing some rural underperformance from Biden’s numbers four years ago, although it is very early and we haven’t obtained any major county results that are earth shattering yet. Keeping an eye on those Florida numbers, that could once again be a crucial battleground state.

Presidential:

3 EVs to 19 EVs (270 required)





Senate:


25D-45R (50 for majority)
+1 D -1 I



House:

8D-14R

[It’s so Joever]

7:25

No new calls have been made with the exception of a few less competitive house races. Three new states will come in next update, possibly with some calls. The next few updates should be more exciting.

Presidential:

3 EVs to 19 EVs (270 to win)



Senate:


25D-45R (50 for majority)
+1 D -1 I


House:

10D-16R (218 for majority)

[It’s so Joever]

7:30

With polls having closed across Ohio, West Virginia, and North Carolina, we can now project that West Virginia and its 4 electoral votes will go to Donald Trump. A lot of competitive races in the senate, Republicans hope to flip Virginia, Ohio, and West Virginia, while Democrats hope to flip Florida. None can be called yet. Meanwhile a few more house races are called but no flips yet.

Presidential:

3 EVs to 22 EVs (270 to win)




Senate:
25D-45R (50 for majority)
+1 D -1 I


House:

17D-25R (218 for majority)

[2016]

Looking at the County by County Map in Florida Trump & Scott are probably favoured if Broward County (which is the most Democratic in the State) has already released most of their EV.

[It’s so Joever]

7:35
No new projections outside of some less competitive house races. However, we can see the start of patterns, including some notable county flips on the presidential map. It is early to extrapolate too much, but still worth a look. Currently we do believe it is highly likely Republicans do keep the Senate just given the map, although there haven't been any real flips yet.

Presidential:

3 EVs to 22 EVs (270 to win)




Senate:
25D-45R (50 for majority)
+1 D -1 I



House


21D-33R (218 for majority)

[PRESIDENT STANTON]

Didn't realize that Kentucky had a Senate contest in the 2024 cycle 😳

[It’s so Joever]

Didn't realize that Kentucky had a Senate contest in the 2024 cycle 😳

? It doesn't.

[It’s so Joever]

7:40
We can now safely call the state of Virginia for Joe Biden. A blue leaning state, Biden once again shows strong overperformance here, something that Senator Kaine likely hopes will carry him in the fight of his career. Unfortunately there are no new senate race calls we can make, but a few new safe house elections are secured.

Presidential:

16 EVs to 23 EVs (270 to win)




Senate:

25D-45R (50 for majority)
+1 D -1 I




House:   

25D-39R (218 for majority)

[It’s so Joever]

7:45

We can now also call the state of South Carolina for Donald Trump. We feel confident in this given what we have so far, we do not believe the votes exist to flip the state for the Democrats at this time. That boosts Trump’s electoral vote lead. Meanwhile we have no senate race news, although we are getting our first results from the potentially competitive races in Ohio and West Virginia. Some new house races have been called.

Presidential:

16 EVs to 32 EVs (270 to win)



Senate:

25D-45R (50 for majority)
+1 D -1 I




House:

25D-41R (218 for majority)

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

Second Democrat to serve in the US Senate for Vermont

Is Peter Welch a joke to you?

[It’s so Joever]

7:50

Nothing much to report now, polls for several states close in ten minutes, most crucially Pennsylvania which many experts believe will determine the election. Republicans look likely to hold the Senate, House and Presidency still are complete tossups at this point.

Presidential:

16 EVs to 32 EVs (270 to win)







Senate:

25D-45R (50 for majority)
+1 D -1 I






House:

26D-47R (218 for majority)

[It’s so Joever]

7:55
Same story as five minutes ago, a couple of house races have been called but that's it. Do check the county map, new counties continue to be added at a slow pace.

Presidential:

16 EVs to 32 EVs (270 to win)











Senate:

25D-45R (50 for majority)
+1 D -1 I




House:

26D-50R (218 for majority)