Could a "Ford Nation" style coalition ever take off in the US?

[King of Kensington]

The Chris Christie coalition looks more like Stephen Harper than Ford Nation.

[Kamala's side hoe]

The Chris Christie coalition looks more like Stephen Harper than Ford Nation.

How did the Harper and Ford coalitions differ again?

[King of Kensington]

How did the Harper and Ford coalitions differ again?

Ford Nation was more downscale than the Harper coalition.

[King of Kensington]

Since I'm sucked in now, are there any good books on Ford Nation (the coalition, not the show) or any of the campaigns?

Crazy Town by Toronto Star reporter Robyn Doolittle.

[DC Al Fine]

How did the Harper and Ford coalitions differ again?

Ford Nation was more downscale than the Harper coalition.

To put this in perspective for how unique Ford Nation is, Rob Ford may have won the black vote in 2010... That's unheard of pretty much anywhere.

[DC Al Fine]

I don't think that it's possible here given the racial politics of the South, the urban history of the Northeast and Midwest, the ethnic makeup of immigrants in much of the Southwest, and the radically different role of religion in public life.

I would agree with you nationally. It does seem to have potential  in certain progressive dominated cities and states. No one's going to believed president on it, but I could see a Governor, Mayor, or State legislature race swinging based off pissed off otherwise progressive suburbanites. That's pretty much what happened in Toronto.

[King of Kensington]

Has there ever been a conservative populist mayor that won both Black and "white ethnic" support anywhere in the US?

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Bloomberg might have in 2005, looking at precinct results.

[King of Kensington]

Bloomberg the patrician billionaire is such a contrast to Ford Nation it's not even funny.

The Bloomberg coalition is similar, I suspect, to the John Tory coalition in Toronto (quite upscale).

[King of Kensington]

Probably not, no. Even moderately conservative mayors of major cities are typically either extremely fiscal conservatives relying on suburban support (e.g. Richard Riordan) or populists with no black support (e.g. Rudy Giuliani).

The only Republican I know who won the black vote was Tom Kean, and he did so in a 70% statewide landslide. Republicans typically do not win black votes anywhere, even in urban settings. Urban coalitions are built around picking up as many non-black votes as possible.

Is there any significant white working class in L.A. at all?

[Kamala's side hoe]

Probably not, no. Even moderately conservative mayors of major cities are typically either extremely fiscal conservatives relying on suburban support (e.g. Richard Riordan) or populists with no black support (e.g. Rudy Giuliani).

The only Republican I know who won the black vote was Tom Kean, and he did so in a 70% statewide landslide. Republicans typically do not win black votes anywhere, even in urban settings. Urban coalitions are built around picking up as many non-black votes as possible.

Is there any significant white working class in L.A. at all?

http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-kaplan-inglewood-gentrification-20171126-story.html
https://www.citylab.com/equity/2013/01/class-divided-cities-los-angeles-edition/4296/

LA doesn’t seem to have much of a traditional working-class, period.

[SNJ1985]

It could happen with a Blue Dog Democrat. When George Wallace ran for governor in 1982, he won the black vote by the standard enormous margin.

[King of Kensington]

Probably not, no. Even moderately conservative mayors of major cities are typically either extremely fiscal conservatives relying on suburban support (e.g. Richard Riordan) or populists with no black support (e.g. Rudy Giuliani).

The only Republican I know who won the black vote was Tom Kean, and he did so in a 70% statewide landslide. Republicans typically do not win black votes anywhere, even in urban settings. Urban coalitions are built around picking up as many non-black votes as possible.

Is there any significant white working class in L.A. at all?

http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-kaplan-inglewood-gentrification-20171126-story.html
https://www.citylab.com/equity/2013/01/class-divided-cities-los-angeles-edition/4296/

LA doesn’t seem to have much of a traditional working-class, period.

That's an extremely narrow definition of working class.  NYC and Chicago wouldn't have much of one either.

NYC and Chicago still have "white ethnic" working class neighborhoods, but L.A.'s white population was traditionally dominated by Protestants with Midwestern and "Okie" roots.  I doubt there's any holdouts of them in L.A. proper.

[Kamala's side hoe]

LA proper’s Jewish, Armenian, and Iranian communities could be considered “white ethnic” (Ashkenazi Jews are one of the core “white ethnic” subgroups nationwide) but definitely aren’t working-class.

[Dead Parrot]

Now that it looks like Eric Adams will be the next mayor of NYC, could this kind of "Ford Nation"-esque politics spread to other cities moving forward?

[Kamala's side hoe]

I.e. multiethnic and suburban conservatives in opposition to hipster/highly educated downtowns?

This didn’t quite pan out in 2020 given that racial diversification in the suburbs helped them trend further D (even if the actual nonwhite voters moving in were more R than in 2016). But it accurately describes the swings in the big city urban cores.

Now that it looks like Eric Adams will be the next mayor of NYC, could this kind of "Ford Nation"-esque politics spread to other cities moving forward?

It’s only a matter of time. Although I’d like to think our impending “Ford Nation” esque coalitions will be more woke and crunchier than their Canadian namesake.

[Kamala's side hoe]

I don't think that it's possible here given the racial politics of the South, the urban history of the Northeast and Midwest, the ethnic makeup of immigrants in much of the Southwest, and the radically different role of religion in public life.

I would agree with you nationally. It does seem to have potential  in certain progressive dominated cities and states. No one's going to believed president on it, but I could see a Governor, Mayor, or State legislature race swinging based off pissed off otherwise progressive suburbanites. That's pretty much what happened in Toronto.

In hindsight, this describes NJ-GOV 2021 better than VA-GOV 2021.

[Skill and Chance]

This is kind of what DeSantis is trying to do and it seems to be working, at least in Florida.