When will a Democrat next win a statewide race in Texas?
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  When will a Democrat next win a statewide race in Texas?
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Question: When will a Democrat next win a statewide race in Texas?
#1
2022
 
#2
2024
 
#3
2026
 
#4
2028
 
#5
2030
 
#6
2032 or later
 
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Total Voters: 59

Author Topic: When will a Democrat next win a statewide race in Texas?  (Read 2409 times)
Tekken_Guy
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« on: July 19, 2022, 05:40:46 PM »

When will a Democrat next win a statewide race in Texas?
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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #1 on: July 20, 2022, 06:27:48 PM »

Either 26 or 30.
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ModerateRadical
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« Reply #2 on: July 20, 2022, 08:29:47 PM »

Later than most Democrats expect, but significantly earlier than Republicans predict. Democrats are generally incompetent in terms of organization, but Texas Republicans are way too confident in their medium-term chances in a state where the political geography is starting to shift beneath their feet.
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Xing
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« Reply #3 on: July 20, 2022, 09:15:44 PM »

Hard to say for sure, but my guess would be TX-SEN 2030.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #4 on: July 20, 2022, 10:36:50 PM »

Hmmm...I don't think it'll happen in 2026.  Probably either 2030 or 2034. 
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dw93
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« Reply #5 on: July 23, 2022, 01:26:19 PM »

2026 in the Senate or Governorship if a Republican wins 2024 as I think Cornyn will likely retire and I doubt Abbot will be popular enough to run/win a fourth term. If not then, 2030.
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hyouzel the predictor
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« Reply #6 on: July 24, 2022, 07:07:44 PM »

I honestly think a lot of us are underrating the very real possibility Ted Cruz goes down in 2024. If an RGV Conservadem (not Cuellar but someone like him) runs then they would have an excellent chance of winning (Obama/Clinton RGV Margins + Supercharged suburban swing from 4 more years of growth + HATED incumbent + most likely neutral year = real chance of victory) EVEN if Biden loses the state by 5 points
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #7 on: July 26, 2022, 09:22:24 AM »

No sooner than 2026 but no later than 2032.
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OSR stands with Israel
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« Reply #8 on: July 26, 2022, 02:31:13 PM »

The 6th year itch of the next Republican president so my guess is 2030
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dw93
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« Reply #9 on: July 26, 2022, 08:43:41 PM »

The 6th year itch of the next Republican president so my guess is 2030

Which more likely to happen. Cruz losing or a Democrat winning the Governorship that year?
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OSR stands with Israel
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« Reply #10 on: July 26, 2022, 08:46:21 PM »

The 6th year itch of the next Republican president so my guess is 2030

Which more likely to happen. Cruz losing or a Democrat winning the Governorship that year?

My guess is Cruz losing
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Zedonathin2020
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« Reply #11 on: August 06, 2022, 08:53:37 AM »

Either the 2026 Gubernatorial and/or Senate race under a GOP Midterm, or the 2030 Gubernatorial and/or Senate race under a GOP six year itch.
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Spectator
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« Reply #12 on: August 06, 2022, 09:00:25 AM »

Either Cruz loses a general in 2024 or 2030 or the next time a Democrat wins the presidency after a Republican President.
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DS0816
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« Reply #13 on: September 25, 2022, 08:49:26 AM »

When will a Democrat next win a statewide race in Texas?

It would be based on circumstances.

If one is thinking U.S. Senate: It would likely occur in a midterm election cycle in which the president of the United States is affiliated with the Republican Party and the Democrats flip a U.S. Senate seat in Texas.

If one is thinking U.S. President: It would likely occur in the next applicable U.S. presidential election in which the White House is in the column for the Republicans and it ends up switching to the Democrats. Under those circumstances, one of the pickup states would be Texas.
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dw93
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« Reply #14 on: September 27, 2022, 05:12:37 PM »

Senate: Could come as early as 2024 if Biden or whoever ends up the Democratic nominee is exceeding Biden's 2020 margin. If not, 2026 if a Republican (especially if it's Trump) is President and Cornyn chooses to retire. 2030 is more likely IMHO.

Governor: 2026 is a longshot, 2030 is more likely.


President: 2032 at the earliest. I don't see Texas flipping at the Presidential level in 2024 or 2028, the best the Democrats could hope for in the 2020's is chipping away at the state and winning some races down ticket in the process.
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Person Man
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« Reply #15 on: September 29, 2022, 10:28:02 AM »

When will a Democrat next win a statewide race in Texas?

It would be based on circumstances.

If one is thinking U.S. Senate: It would likely occur in a midterm election cycle in which the president of the United States is affiliated with the Republican Party and the Democrats flip a U.S. Senate seat in Texas.

If one is thinking U.S. President: It would likely occur in the next applicable U.S. presidential election in which the White House is in the column for the Republicans and it ends up switching to the Democrats. Under those circumstances, one of the pickup states would be Texas.


The next Democratic President will win Texas. Is that your prediction? What other states will they win that Biden did not? Are there states that they will probably lose?
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #16 on: September 30, 2022, 03:03:17 PM »

Hot take 2024
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Spectator
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« Reply #17 on: October 01, 2022, 03:34:06 PM »

When will a Democrat next win a statewide race in Texas?

It would be based on circumstances.

If one is thinking U.S. Senate: It would likely occur in a midterm election cycle in which the president of the United States is affiliated with the Republican Party and the Democrats flip a U.S. Senate seat in Texas.

If one is thinking U.S. President: It would likely occur in the next applicable U.S. presidential election in which the White House is in the column for the Republicans and it ends up switching to the Democrats. Under those circumstances, one of the pickup states would be Texas.


The next Democratic President will win Texas. Is that your prediction? What other states will they win that Biden did not? Are there states that they will probably lose?

My guess is the next Democrat President wins Texas and North Carolina. Probably will lose Wisconsin, but who knows.

Trump wins in 2024 and a Democrat wins in 2028, but not one of the people that are being talked about now.

If Biden does win re-election in 2024, I can see a scenario where a Democrat beats Cruz in the Senate race.
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Asenath Waite
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« Reply #18 on: October 11, 2022, 05:03:01 AM »

Definitely 2026, especially if a Republican is in the white house.
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Spectator
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« Reply #19 on: October 11, 2022, 11:45:13 AM »

Definitely 2026, especially if a Republican is in the white house.

If there’s a Republican in the White House in 2030, I imagine that the Senate race, with Cruz running or not, and potentially the Governors race would be the year the dam breaks. DFW and Austin and horrendous for the GOP, and ten more years of demographic change is only going to get worse. I think Austin will start voting like San Francisco before long, and the DFW metro not too far behind.
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sg0508
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« Reply #20 on: October 15, 2022, 09:59:47 AM »

I actually believe if Cruz thinks he's in danger, he would not run for re-election.  I think that ego of him wouldn't survive if he actually lost. That being said, I think 2026 governor is the Democrats' next big chance, and who knows in the 2024 presidential race?

I do think there's a chance that TX goes blue in 2024, but it would take a very bad political / economic environment that blows the roof off with the youth vote turnout, similar to 08.
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Tartarus Sauce
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« Reply #21 on: October 18, 2022, 01:48:39 PM »

The next Republican midterm, Texas Republicans are already arguably overreaching past the point of their party brand’s popularity in the state with abortion bans and scandal tarred incumbents like Ken Paxton occupying high profile offices.
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