Southern white vote by state in 1976
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  Southern white vote by state in 1976
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Author Topic: Southern white vote by state in 1976  (Read 567 times)
goin bezerk
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« on: July 18, 2022, 03:58:23 PM »

Who won whites in Southern states in 1976?

Here's what I think.

Alabama: unsure
Arkansas: Carter
Florida: Ford
Georgia: Carter
Kentucky: unsure
North Carolina: unsure
South Carolina: unsure
Tennessee: unsure
Texas: Ford
Mississippi: Ford
Louisiana: Ford
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TDAS04
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« Reply #1 on: July 18, 2022, 04:56:11 PM »

Carter in Georgia, Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky (among the states you mentioned).  Ford in the rest, though some must have been close.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #2 on: July 18, 2022, 05:30:31 PM »

Carter in Georgia, Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky (among the states you mentioned).  Ford in the rest, though some must have been close.

I don't think you can explain the Carter blowout in NC without it, or TN for that matter, but we agree there.  KY would have been over 90% white back then so I agree even though it was closer.

TX, LA, and MS are clear no's.  IDK about AL and SC.  Those margins are pretty high and those county maps are pretty uniform. 
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TDAS04
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« Reply #3 on: July 18, 2022, 05:37:12 PM »

Carter in Georgia, Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky (among the states you mentioned).  Ford in the rest, though some must have been close.

I don't think you can explain the Carter blowout in NC without it, or TN for that matter, but we agree there.  KY would have been over 90% white back then so I agree even though it was closer.

TX, LA, and MS are clear no's.  IDK about AL and SC.  Those margins are pretty high and those county maps are pretty uniform. 

If AA turnout was decent, that would have put Carter over the top in AL and SC.  The county maps look uniform since Carter won rural whites, but Ford performed very well among whites in metropolitan areas. 

North Carolina must have been close.
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I Will Not Be Wrong
outofbox6
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« Reply #4 on: July 24, 2022, 03:14:07 AM »

I just realized that Clinton did better in Louisiana in 1996 than Carter did there in 1976. How did that happen?
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TDAS04
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« Reply #5 on: July 24, 2022, 02:10:07 PM »

I just realized that Clinton did better in Louisiana in 1996 than Carter did there in 1976. How did that happen?

Clinton had more suburban appeal?
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Fuzzy Bear
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« Reply #6 on: August 06, 2022, 03:21:29 PM »

I just realized that Clinton did better in Louisiana in 1996 than Carter did there in 1976. How did that happen?

Clinton had more suburban appeal?

The Cajun vote swung strongly to Clinton in 1992 and 1996.

Louisiana was the MOST Democratic state in 1988 and voted to the LEFT of the Country (slightly) in 1992 and 1996.
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All Along The Watchtower
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« Reply #7 on: August 06, 2022, 03:23:48 PM »

I just realized that Clinton did better in Louisiana in 1996 than Carter did there in 1976. How did that happen?

Clinton had more suburban appeal?

The Cajun vote swung strongly to Clinton in 1992 and 1996.

Louisiana was the MOST Democratic state in 1988 and voted to the LEFT of the Country (slightly) in 1992 and 1996.

Presumably you mean most Democratic Southern state in 1988? Tongue
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TheElectoralBoobyPrize
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« Reply #8 on: August 16, 2022, 11:07:37 AM »

I just realized that Clinton did better in Louisiana in 1996 than Carter did there in 1976. How did that happen?

Clinton had more suburban appeal?

The Cajun vote swung strongly to Clinton in 1992 and 1996.

Louisiana was the MOST Democratic state in 1988 and voted to the LEFT of the Country (slightly) in 1992 and 1996.

It looks like Louisiana was a little to the right of the country in 1992 (if you're going by margin of victory), but yeah to the left in 1996. The real question is why Louisiana swung left in '96 when most of the South swung to the right (the nation overall shifting to the left in '96 was due to the Northeast shifting that way). All I can think of is a) Bush Sr. was an oilman from a neighboring state, b) Louisiana's incumbency bias, or c)high AA turnout (which also swung MS and SC left but not nearly enough to flip them).
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