Ontario ONDP Leadership (March 2023)

[toaster]

We also need to distinguish between wealth and income when we are talking about being "rich".  Northern Ontario (places like Nickel Belt) have high incomes (thanks for labour, working in mining), many are not university educated professionals.  They also don't live on wealth (ie, their houses haven't increased 10x in the past 10 years) like most areas in Southern Ontario. My understanding is the data provided by the Census measures income, not wealth.

[DL]

Getting back to the Ontario NDP leadership, I hear rumours that Sudbury MPP Jamie West may throw his hat in the ring. He would be a good alternative to Marit Stiles - though both would make excellent leaders of the party! 

[toaster]

Getting back to the Ontario NDP leadership, I hear rumours that Sudbury MPP Jamie West may throw his hat in the ring. He would be a good alternative to Marit Stiles - though both would make excellent leaders of the party! 

That would be great news!!  I hope so, he's such a likeable guy. Gets along with everybody, labour and progressives.  I think he could lead the party into government.

[Hatman 🍁]

Marit Stiles is the first person to announce her leadership candidacy. She's already been endorsed by Chandra Pasma, Kristyn Wong-Tam and Bhutila Karpoche.

She's most likely going to be the front runner as the establishment candidate. I hope we don't see a coronation like in BC.

[DL]

Marit Stiles is the first person to announce her leadership candidacy. She's already been endorsed by Chandra Pasma, Kristyn Wong-Tam and Bhutila Karpoche.

She's most likely going to be the front runner as the establishment candidate. I hope we don't see a coronation like in BC.

She is also backed by Jessica Bell the MPP for University-Rosedale and likely many, many others.

I would not mind an actual coronation - as in no other candidate files by the early December deadline and Marit is declared the new leader in early December. That would give her three extra months to get to work. BC unfortunately is not actually an "acclamation". While some would debate whether Anjali Appathurai is a "serious" opponent to Eby or not - she is a nuisance who is trying to flood the party with instant new members and she is running a very nasty, negative campaign. 

[Hatman 🍁]

Leadership elections are a good way to sign up members and get more money, right? That can't be a bad thing. And if a few credible candidates run, then you avoid having insurgent candidates like Appathurai gain any traction.

I would like to have some choice, even if I do end up supporting Stiles. I don't want to begin her leadership by resenting the fact that I didn't get one.

[DL]

From everything I’ve heard leadership contests are highly overrated as a way for a party to raise money. To the extent that you get any mass signups is mostly people who lay the $5 for anyone “unwaged” and it never comes close to covering the cost of the staging the contest or all the money that is not raised because the party is navel gazing with a leadership contest ragent tnat acting line the official opposition

[toaster]

I think Marit is well liked, and a great speaker, but I worry about her being able to bring (particularly private sector) labour back to the big orange tent. All of the MPPs listed that support her are Downtown Toronto MPPs (plus 1 newcomer from urban Ottawa). I'll wait to see if she gets any of the Northern/Southwest MPPs supporting her before deciding whether she'll be able to get labour on board.

[DL]

I suspect Marit has already lined up support from many other MPPs but usually the strategy is to roll those out but by bit. She will likely get lots of labour support too, she was a union negotiator and leader before she got into politics and the teachers unions all love her from her time as education critic. She would have built a lot of ties to the major unions from her stint as national president of the NDP as well.

[Holmes]

A contested election would be preferable than winning unopposed. It would bring interest to the NDP and new registrations and donations. The next election isn't until for a few years from now anyway, so an extra three months to get to work won't make much of a difference. Stiles becoming leader unopposed would just be a news story on the 6 o'clock news and that's about it.

[Benjamin Frank]

Bump

So, is Marit Stiles going to win by acclamation? The deadline to enter is less than 5 days away.

[Hatman 🍁]

Looks like it. I'm going to be releasing a poll this week that shows only Charlie Angus has a chance to beat her, but the chances of him running are next to nil.

Really too bad. I'm sure Marit is awesome at all, but not being given the chance to vote will put a bitter taste in my mouth to begin her leadership.

[DL]

Looks like it. I'm going to be releasing a poll this week that shows only Charlie Angus has a chance to beat her, but the chances of him running are next to nil.

Really too bad. I'm sure Marit is awesome at all, but not being given the chance to vote will put a bitter taste in my mouth to begin her leadership.

What? You got a hold of a list of Ontario NDP card carrying members and polled them on who they would vote for in a leadership contest? and how did you deal with 25% affiliated labour carve out? If its just a survey of the general public then its just a poll of name recognition and totally meaningless.

For all the talk of it somehow being bad for the Ontario NDP to acclaim Marit Stiles as its next leader, its worth pointing out that in recent Canadian political history there have been a few other NDP and other party leaders who were acclaimed - and in every case they were success stories! In 1987 Roy Romanow was acclaimed Saskatchewan NDP leader - he went in to win three straight elections. In 1970 Dave Barrett was acclaimed BC NDP leader - he won the 1972 election in a landslide. In 1989 Mike Harcourt was acclaimed BC NDP leader - he went on to win a majority in 1991.  In 2014 John Horgan was acclaimed BC NDP leader - he went on to win the next two BC elections. On the right side of the political spectrum it’s worth pointing out that Brad Wall was also originally acclaimed as leader of the Sask Party in 2006 and Danny Williams was acclaimed leader of the Newfoundland PCs in 2001 and each went on to win three elections.

Can anyone think of any example of a major party acclaiming a new leader and that person NOT winning the next election? The only one I can think of is Kevin Vickers of the New Brunswick Liberals

[Hatman 🍁]

You seem to really be spinning this as much as possible. It's not going to convince me to like it. It's not about outcomes anyway, it's about denying my chance to participate in the process.  There's already a perception the party doesn't listen to its grassroots. This isn't going to help that.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

In 1970 Dave Barrett was acclaimed BC NDP leader - he won the 1972 election in a landslide. In 1989 Mike Harcourt was acclaimed BC NDP leader - he went on to win a majority in 1991.

These are not, perhaps, the happiest of examples for other reasons though.

[DL]

You seem to really be spinning this as much as possible. It's not going to convince me to like it. It's not about outcomes anyway, it's about denying my chance to participate in the process.  There's already a perception the party doesn't listen to its grassroots. This isn't going to help that.

I heard through the grapevine that an MPP (who shall remain nameless for now) was actually calling around asking notable party members to sign his nomination papers etc... My friend asked this MPP why he was possibly running and the only answer he gave was "I think its important to have a contest". That seems pretty lame to me. It's like the guy is basically saying "I can't think of a single reason why I would make a better leader than Marit Stiles, but I'm running anyways just for the sake of having a contest". Seriously?

I don't want a contest just for the sake of a contest. If someone in the Ontario NDP really thinks that making Marit Stiles leader would be a huge mistake and wants to put forth a radically different offer - well then fine - let me get out the popcorn and see what I think of the dueling visions. But if its just some second rate backbencher from an adjacent riding who agrees with Marit on everything and is just running so that there has be a vote, my reaction is "you're just wasting everyone's time and money".

This contest is far, far, far too long. Andrea Horwath resigned on June 2nd. The party should have set a deadline two weeks later to enter the contest conditional on support from x number of caucus members and provincial caucus members and then the vote among members should have been set for early August. Instead we have to twiddle our thumbs with no leader for eight months. They have the right idea in the UK and Australia where party leaders are picked almost instantly with as short a campaign as possible

[Krago]

Can anyone think of any example of a major party acclaiming a new leader and that person NOT winning the next election? The only one I can think of is Kevin Vickers of the New Brunswick Liberals

Michael Ignatieff

(drops mic)

[Benjamin Frank]

Odd. I can't believe nobody would challenge Marit Stiles. The past 4 Ontario NDP leadership races all had 3 or 4 candidates.

Niagara Falls MPP Gates decides against running for Ontario NDP leadership
https://www.niagarafallsreview.ca/news/niagara-region/2022/12/02/gates-decides-against-running-for-ontario-ndp-leadership.html

From wiki, the Ontario CCF/NDP has never had a leadership race won by acclamation.

According to Wiki, the party only had a spokesperson who was designated as the leader during elections from 1934-1942.

1942
Ted Joliffe
Murray Cotterill

1953
Donald MacDonald
Fred Young
Andrew Brewin

Donald MacDonald was acclaimed as leader in 1961 as the CCF transitioned to the NDP. I wouldn't really count that as an actual leadership race.

1970
Stephen Lewis
Walter Pitman
Douglas Campbell

1978
Michael Cassidy
Ian Deans
Michael Breaugh

Michael Cassidy is a brilliant person but should never have been elected leader. I remember one critic saying 'he's the first robot to to win a leadership race.'  Ian Deans seems to have been too right wing for most New Democrats though, and Breaugh seems to have been unable to get along with enough people (he clashed with both future provincial leader Bob Rae and federal leader Ed Broadbent whom he briefly succeeded as the federal M.P for Oshawa.)

1982
Bob Rae
Richard Johnston
Jim Foulds

Richard Johnston was the 'Waffle' candidate and Jim Foulds was the candidate of some academics and social activists, but Bob Rae had most of the union and party establishment backing.

1996
Howard Hampton
Frances Lankin
Peter Kormos
Tony Silipo

Frances Lankin was considered the frontrunner as the arguably most capable cabinet minister in the Bob Rae government, but was ultimately rejected as being too much of an insider minister in the Rae government that many New Democrats weren't happy with.

Peter Kormos was the anti establishment left wing outsider MPP.

Tony Silipo, although a capable cabinet minister in the Rae government and a Toronto school trustee prior to that, lost out to Peter Kormos as the left wing choice and to Frances Lankin as the choice of Toronto New Democrats.

Howard Hampton was a senior cabinet minister but was not seen as being an insider in the Rae government. He was also the only northern candidate.

2009
Andrea Horwath
Peter Tabuns
Gilles Bisson
Michael Prue

[DL]

Apparently Sol Mamakwa has also said he will not run.

There were rumours last week that Spadina-Fort York MPP Chris Glover would throw his hat in the ring - but I see no rationale whatsoever for his candidacy. He - like Marit Stiles - is a former school trustee in his 50s who represents a downtown Toronto riding and who seems ideologically middle of the road within the NDP. The only "unique selling proposition" he could offer would be "I'm exactly the same as Marit Stiles except that I'm a man and she's a woman". In other words he would be dead on arrival as a candidate.

As much as we political junkies like to have a contest, sometimes the absence of a contest is simply indicative of the fact that one candidate is far and away the best choice and everybody knows it.

[Benjamin Frank]

As the leader of the procrastinator wing of the Ontario New Democratic Party, I am officially annoucing that I *might* start to prepare my campaign to run for the leadership of the Ontario NDP tomorrow.

[lilTommy]

It doesn't look like anyone else filed in time; there was chatter about Jill Andrew having filed papers to run but I don't think that happened.

I was looking forward to having a leadership race, but Stiles came out hard and fast, it just looks like no one who had potential or a desire to also run could compete.
Looking at other names, all of whole said no, most are cut from the same cloth as Stiles anyway. The biggest difference would have been messaging or tone perhaps.

It would have been interesting to see a Stiles/Gates or Stiles/West matchup as Gates and West are  much more populist-left then Stiles (Gates more so, but West to some degree, he seemed like a half-way candidate between the two).
If Harden had decided to run, that would have been a much more policy oriented leadership race for sure.

Pros of not having a race in this case would be a) the leader can be the leader now and get into the public eye. Tabuns has been doing a decent job but the media likes to avoid the NDP and not having a leader is enough of an excuse. b) no guarantee a leadership race gets media attention, look at the last OLP race... c) more time to get Stiles's name out there, more time to get her known and set the narrative which the party has had months of no-one-else interested to do. d) no potential party infighting or division over a race, can present a united front

[Hatman 🍁]

*Sigh*

[adma]

And meanwhile, in the Liberal end, and something that *perhaps* we should have seen coming...
https://www.thestar.com/opinion/star-columnists/2022/12/07/ontario-liberals-court-green-leader-mike-schreiner-for-party-leadership.html?fbclid=IwAR2wABPbvh_aXnfZCuTnwKsw-d7WDpPtQBerA3ZOuWBxYWcXwzh5u80-JTg