Democrats have a big Senate problem

[ListMan38]

Yeah, I think there is a sizeable chance, Oz, Walker, Masters, Laxalt, Bolduc and perhaps even Smiley in WA pull it off, and assuming Rs win 2028, there's a good chance those will hold too.

2024 will be hell for the DSCC. Manchin and Tester are in a horrible position, as voters have split their senate and presidential vote exactly once since Trump (Collins 2020). Furthermore, assuming the 2024 R pulls it off, Sinema, Rosen, Baldwin, Stabenow, Brown and possibly King would have a tough year too.

2026 R midterm would be Collins, Tillis, and in an exceptionally good year Cornyn and Ernst would be the only real Dem pickups, and 2026 R midterm Ossoff, Peters and Shaheen would be the big R gain opportunities.

In short, the Dems have an uphill battle in the Senate for the next while.