Biden's single biggest mistake in the 2020 campaign

[Sir Mohamed]

Analogue to the poll about Trump's campaign; what do you consider Biden's single biggest mistake during the 2020 campaign?

I voted for #1, I think the lack of campaign events including door knocks was the biggest mistake of Biden's campaign. Ironically this is also related to Covid, which is imho Trump's biggest mistake as well (meaning his handling of the pandemic).

[Podgy the Bear]

I think the relative lack of campaign events, especially in summer 2020, had some impact in states like FL--where the Biden campaign ignored the significant Republican trend in Miami-Dade.   But they did pick it up in September-October and targeted the states that eventually moved their way (GA, AZ, and the Rust Belt states) in an effective manner. 

[Mr.Phips]

Failure to cut ads for and campaign for Sara Gideon in Maine.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Picking Kamala Harris as Vice President. Resulted in about 10 million voters voting for Trump who otherwise would have stayed home. Cost him NC, FL, TX and ME-02; and cost Senate Dems NC, ME, and IA. Cost US House Dems 32 seats.

[BG-NY]

None. Biden (enabled by Covid) ran a flawless campaign. He was able to hide his weakness (public speaking) by Covid lowering that standard, and Trump catching Covid saved him from losing 3/3 debates.

[dw93]

Looking back at it, it's easy to say he didn't campaign in person enough but honestly I think campaigning in person too much would've undercut their message on COVID and its severity. I can see the attacks from the GOP being along the lines of "here they are telling you to stay home and distance while there out campaigning." Granted campaigning in person more may've very well helped, but it could've also hurt for the reason above.

As for the riots, while they initially hurt Trump more, they hurt Biden, and especially the Democratic Party down ticket more by election day. While Biden came out against "Defund the Police," I don't think the campaign did enough to distance him from the fringes on that issue.

As for the debates, while I by no means think Trump won them, especially the first debate where he acted like a ragging lunatic,  Biden didn't win them either as the Biden that came off as a steady statesmen against Sarah Palin in 2008 and the Biden that cleaned Paul Ryan's clock in 2012 clearly wasn't at the three Presidential debates. The only debate I can say with confidence went well for the Democrats was, ironically, the VP debate, as Harris whooped Pence, something Tim Kaine failed to do in 2016. Granted the Presidential debates were worse for Trump than they were for Biden, they didn't help Biden either.

With the end result, with hindsight, Florida was never gonna be an easy win as that was one of the key states that actually trended Trump's way. I think they shouldn't have put much money into IA or OH, outside of House races, at all given Trump's 9 and 8 point wins in those states in 2016. That money would've been much better spent in North Carolina. Spending money in the KY and TX Senate races was also a dumb move, as putting those resources into NH and NC might've made for victories in those senate races, thus Biden's agenda would've passed.

[Vice President Christian Man]

Picking Kamala Harris as Vice President. Resulted in about 10 million voters voting for Trump who otherwise would have stayed home. Cost him NC, FL, TX and ME-02; and cost Senate Dems NC, ME, and IA. Cost US House Dems 32 seats.

This seems like an exaggeration as there's almost no way Biden would've won Texas or ME-2 no matter which VP he chose, with the possible exception if he chose Jared Golden for the later but that would've cost him in other states. I think Val Demings would've been the best VP Biden could find, especially contrasting with Kamala'a rich lawyer vibe. She would've had all of Kamala's strengths and her relatively moderate profile would've likely flipped North Carolina and at the least put him within a % of flipping back Florida.

[goin bezerk]

In terms of long term damage to the Democrats, ignoring Hispanics.

[Sir Mohamed]

Picking Kamala Harris as Vice President. Resulted in about 10 million voters voting for Trump who otherwise would have stayed home. Cost him NC, FL, TX and ME-02; and cost Senate Dems NC, ME, and IA. Cost US House Dems 32 seats.

I, personally, think it's unlikely that Biden would have beat Trump by 17 million votes with a different VP.

Yup; I dunno where that 32 number is coming from either. Dems lost 13 seats in 2020.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

In terms of long term damage to the Democrats, ignoring Hispanics.

Dems in 2020:
'Hispanics don't matter at all this election. They need to stop whining, know their place, take one for the team and maybe we'll throw them a bone in 2024 or 2028'

Dems after Hispanics trended rightwards and may continue to trend rightwards in 2022: Shocked Pikachu face

[Pres Mike]

In terms of long term damage to the Democrats, ignoring Hispanics.

Dems in 2020:
'Hispanics don't matter at all this election. They need to stop whining, know their place, take one for the team and maybe we'll throw them a bone in 2024 or 2028'

Dems after Hispanics trended rightwards and may continue to trend rightwards in 2022: Shocked Pikachu face

Can someone explain the concept of Democrats ignoring Hispanics in 2020?

Democrats aggressively ran Hispanic radio ads and commercials. Biden’s platform of rolling back Trump policies on immigration and DACA were probably the most realistic parts of his platform.

Biden’s levels of support were comparable to Gore and Kerry.

Hispanics swung back of incumbency, energy and lockdowns

[Walker Jones]

Staying in his basement was the smartest thing he did, because if he had campaigned actively he would have been exposed as sleepy and low-energy (like he was in the primary debates). His biggest mistake was not sending volunteers to knock on people's doors because that is a very good method of campaigning

[SevenEleven]

Picking Kamala Harris as Vice President. Resulted in about 10 million voters voting for Trump who otherwise would have stayed home. Cost him NC, FL, TX and ME-02; and cost Senate Dems NC, ME, and IA. Cost US House Dems 32 seats.

I, personally, think it's unlikely that Biden would have beat Trump by 17 million votes with a different VP.

Closer to 8-9 million, yeah.

[Ferguson97]

Honestly can't think of much I'd have had him do differently.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

"When they go low we go high" should be replaced by "When they go low we punch them in the face"

[sting in the rafters]

While the house NPV and POTUS NPV actually tracked relatively closely, Democrats could have done better down-ballot via painting Trump as the culmination of the GOP’s half-century long ideological death-march as opposed to the aberration. Trump’s nativist/protectionist ambitions were always compatible with Friedman’s dichotomy between immigration and the welfare state; he merely sought to prioritize the latter for those who “deserved help” over the former’s furnishing to capital of a cheap labor supply. Furthmore, by 2020 this distinction was dead as COVID, the murder of Ahmad Arbery, and the murder of George Floyd caused the election cycle to take on sui generis  in-group/out-group dynamics which I can only compare to a Red Sox vs. Yankees bench-clearing brawl between the respective partisan coalitions.

You saw this with Kasich endorsing Biden and Biden’s camp briefly considering a unity ticket with a never-Trumper. You see it with Pelosi saying in May that America needs a “strong Republican party.” You see it with how they treat Romney and Cheney, as #moderateheroes for supporting the peaceful transfer of power, the bare minimum for any body politic which purports to have the consent of the governed. Republicans overperformed down-ballot in 2020 because the establishment continues to paint Trump as a unique Big Bad, when in reality his sins towards our most sacred principles were only possible because he was standing on the shoulders of giants.

[Adam Griffin]

Option 1 - in effect. The notion that Biden himself should have been more visible on the campaign trail is pretty silly, but...

The presumptive nominee of the Democratic Party every 4 years assumes control of the DNC (and in effect, all umbrella organizations) in late spring at the latest. While Democrats were worried about COVID and sticking to virtual events and phone banks, the Trump campaign was knocking on millions of doors per month.

This was the single-biggest mistake of the 2020 campaign: while the trajectory of well-off whites continuing to absorb influence in the party may continue unabated, some may have forgotten that the Democratic Party is still - to this day - disproportionately reliant upon lower propensity and persuasive voters. Leave a vacuum in this arena, and it will be filled by someone else. The vast majority of losses among non-white voters (sans RGV & maybe Miami Latinos) was avoidable had we actually been on the ground and building field relationships at the local level in the most impressionable way possible. 

[Orser67]

I pretty much agree with what Adam Griffin said about his campaign's biggest mistake being not spending enough time going door-to-door, and I also agree with Mr. Phips that, from a governing perspective, campaigning for Gideon could have had a huge payoff.

But I do think that last debate may have been critical to a Trump surge at the end of the race. I'm not sure if it was a "mistake" on Biden's part per se, but I think a better performance could really have buried Trump.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Biden should have stuck to his 'return to normalcy' theme he centred in the early primary (such as the "nothing will fundamentally change" remark he made to donors) and not have pivoted to a more ambitious agenda during the general. To an extent this was an understandable reaction to Covid and George Floyd, but in hindisght it was a strategic mistake.

Specifically (to pick one issue), his court packing fudge was really bad. Biden's worst moments in the debates were his hemming and hawing about whether he would rule out adding justices or not. Gideon, Cunningham and Greenfield really, really didn't need swing voters to be wondering whether Senate Democrats were planning to pack the court if they got 53 votes.

Another issue Biden shouldn't have even touched is fracking bans. Although Trump misrepresented his position, Biden made it easier for him by again trying to thread the needle in order to satisfy the base.

[Thoughty2]

Biden should have stuck to his 'return to normalcy' theme he centred in the early primary (such as the "nothing will fundamentally change" remark he made to donors) and not have pivoted to a more ambitious agenda during the general. To an extent this was an understandable reaction to Covid and George Floyd, but in hindisght it was a strategic mistake.

Specifically (to pick one issue), his court packing fudge was really bad. Biden's worst moments in the debates were his hemming and hawing about whether he would rule out adding justices or not. Gideon, Cunningham and Greenfield really, really didn't need swing voters to be wondering whether Senate Democrats were planning to pack the court if they got 53 votes.

Another issue Biden shouldn't have even touched is fracking bans. Although Trump misrepresented his position, Biden made it easier for him by again trying to thread the needle in order to satisfy the base.

I don't know...that question set up the "Will you shut up, man?" response to Trump's ranting. That was pretty epic.

[darklordoftech]

Opposing marijuana legalization and not talking about kids in cages.

[xavier110]

His single biggest mistake was picking Harris. This choice really had no effect on 2020, but it will screw us in the years ahead with her as our defacto next in line candidate.

As to what most impacted 2020, maybe leaning more into law and order and funding the police messaging. Otherwise, he ran a great campaign. I don’t think appearing more in person would have helped him.

[Devils30]

His single biggest mistake was picking Harris. This choice really had no effect on 2020, but it will screw us in the years ahead with her as our defacto next in line candidate.

As to what most impacted 2020, maybe leaning more into law and order and funding the police messaging. Otherwise, he ran a great campaign. I don’t think appearing more in person would have helped him.

Yes, he needs to pick someone new in 2024 and just deal with the BLM fallout for a weekend after. Harris nothing more than a socialite who appeals to already solid Dems on social issues.

[dw93]

His single biggest mistake was picking Harris. This choice really had no effect on 2020, but it will screw us in the years ahead with her as our defacto next in line candidate.

As to what most impacted 2020, maybe leaning more into law and order and funding the police messaging. Otherwise, he ran a great campaign. I don’t think appearing more in person would have helped him.

It's easy to say this now, but I think Susan Rice, Klobuchar, and Warren (the runners up, IIRC) would've actually had a negative impact on turnout in the election, even if any of them would've made better governing partners than Harris, and I doubt either of them, with the possible exception of Klobuchar, would've made better "defacto next in line candidates" than Harris.

[Senator-elect Spark]

Poor messaging.. I just didn't know what he stood for or what he would change. He should have also campaigned in person more. A lot of memes and criticism circulated about him "staying in his basement" for the duration of the 2020 campaign.