Draw a district and predict how it wouid vote (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
October 04, 2022, 04:20:30 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  General Politics
  Political Geography & Demographics (Moderators: muon2, 15 Down, 35 To Go)
  Draw a district and predict how it wouid vote (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Draw a district and predict how it wouid vote  (Read 1241 times)
CentristRepublican
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,640
United States


« on: July 28, 2022, 05:38:28 PM »

https://davesredistricting.org/join/38590fe0-3187-4ba9-9e35-b2460aceaf61

I know it has a lot more people than one CD should, but nonetheless.

DEMOGRAPHICS

Voting Age Population: 55.4% Hispanic, 31.5% white, 5.5% black, 4.1% Asian, 2.5% Native American


POLITICS

ELECTION: Winner (winning party), %; Loser (losing party), % (margin; margin relative to TX as a whole)
2020 PRES: Biden (D), 49.4%; Trump (R), 49.2% (D+0.2; D+5.8 )
2020 SEN: Cornyn (R), 50.5%; Hegar (D), 46.7% (R+3.8; D+5.8 )
2018 LT GOV: Collier (D), 49.3%; Patrick (R), 48.3% (D+1.0; D+5.6)
2018 GOV: Abbott (R), 52.8%; Valdez (D), 45.5% (R+7.3; D+6.0)
2018 ATTY GEN: Nelson (D), 50.7%; Paxton (R), 46.5% (D+4.1; D+7.7)
2018 SEN: O'Rourke (D), 52.1%; Cruz (R), 47.0% (D+5.1; D+7.7)
2016 PRES: Clinton (D), 47.6%; Trump (R), 46.9% (D+0.7; D+9.7)
2014 GOV: Abbott (R), 56.8%; Davis (D), 43.2% (R+13.6; D+6.8 )
2014 SEN: Cornyn (R), 61.7%; Alameel (D), 38.3% (R+23.4; D+3.4)
2016/2020 CPVI: R+1.3
2012/2016 CPVI: R+2.8
Logged
CentristRepublican
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,640
United States


« Reply #1 on: July 28, 2022, 05:40:03 PM »



VAP: 55% White, 14% Hispanic, 23% Black, 6% Asian

2020 President: Biden + 4.2
2012/2016 PVI: R + 1
2021 Attorney General: Miyares + 6.7
2021 Governor: Youngkin + 7.9
2021 Lt. Governor: Sears + 7.1
2020 Senator: Warner + 5.7
2018 Senator Kaine + 11.0
2017 Lt. Governor: Fairfax + 0.2
2017 Governor: Northam + 2.9
2017 Attorney General: Herring + 0.9
2016 President: Clinton + 0.1


This looks like a seat Rob Wittman would have held all the way up to 2018.

This. It voted for Clinton but by just a hair so I think Wittman outperforms Trump and survives, but in the 2018 wave, he gets knocked off (and the Democrat who beats him holds on in 2020 given that Biden won by a respectable 4.2%).
Logged
CentristRepublican
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,640
United States


« Reply #2 on: July 31, 2022, 03:54:41 PM »

IF Skill & Chance doesn't have a district to share, I'd appreciate somebody doing mine:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/38590fe0-3187-4ba9-9e35-b2460aceaf61

I know it has a lot more people than one CD should, but nonetheless.

DEMOGRAPHICS

Voting Age Population: 55.4% Hispanic, 31.5% white, 5.5% black, 4.1% Asian, 2.5% Native American


POLITICS

ELECTION: Winner (winning party), %; Loser (losing party), % (margin; margin relative to TX as a whole)
2020 PRES: Biden (D), 49.4%; Trump (R), 49.2% (D+0.2; D+5.8 )
2020 SEN: Cornyn (R), 50.5%; Hegar (D), 46.7% (R+3.8; D+5.8 )
2018 LT GOV: Collier (D), 49.3%; Patrick (R), 48.3% (D+1.0; D+5.6)
2018 GOV: Abbott (R), 52.8%; Valdez (D), 45.5% (R+7.3; D+6.0)
2018 ATTY GEN: Nelson (D), 50.7%; Paxton (R), 46.5% (D+4.1; D+7.7)
2018 SEN: O'Rourke (D), 52.1%; Cruz (R), 47.0% (D+5.1; D+7.7)
2016 PRES: Clinton (D), 47.6%; Trump (R), 46.9% (D+0.7; D+9.7)
2014 GOV: Abbott (R), 56.8%; Davis (D), 43.2% (R+13.6; D+6.8 )
2014 SEN: Cornyn (R), 61.7%; Alameel (D), 38.3% (R+23.4; D+3.4)
2016/2020 CPVI: R+1.3
2012/2016 CPVI: R+2.8


Alternatively, if Skill & Chance does in fact have a district he'd like to share, more than happy to guess on that first.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.038 seconds with 11 queries.