Draw a district and predict how it wouid vote

[GregTheGreat657]

Demographics: 74% White, 7% Hispanic, 12% Black, 4% Asian, 3% Native American
2020 POTUS vote: R + 0.7
2012/2016 PVI: D + 1.7
Composite: D + 2.6
2020 US Senate vote: R + 0.2
2018 US Senate vote: D + 7.4
2018 Attorney General: D + 5.1
2018 Governor: D + 10.7
2016 POTUS: R + 3.1
2016/2020 PVI: R + 2.5

[GregTheGreat657]

Demographics: 74% White, 7% Hispanic, 12% Black, 4% Asian, 3% Native American
2020 POTUS vote: R + 0.7
2012/2016 PVI: D + 1.7
Composite: D + 2.6
2020 US Senate vote: R + 0.2
2018 US Senate vote: D + 7.4
2018 Attorney General: D + 5.1
2018 Governor: D + 10.7
2016 POTUS: R + 3.1
2016/2020 PVI: R + 2.5

For the 2010s it probably would have stayed Democratic the entire decade, though 2020 would have been very close.

For 2022 i’d say it’s more likely to stay Democratic than other districts with similar partisanship.

Do you want to draw a district or do you want to me to draw another one?

[GregTheGreat657]

This is a 2010s district and it’s 66% white.

2014
-Senate: Tillis+18.3

2016
-President: Trump+12.8
-Senate: Burr+18.9
-Governor: McCrory+11.7
-Lt. Governor: Forest+22.1
-Attorney General: Newton+12.8

2020
-President: Trump+5
-Senate: Tillis+9.6
-Governor: Forest+1.3
-Lt. Governor: Robinson+10
-Secretary of State: Sykes+5.8
-Attorney General: O’Neill+6.6
-Auditor: Street+6.4
-Treasurer: Folwell+14

This should normally be a straightforward always-Republican seat. The big question is would Dan McCready have won this seat?

I'd say it stays R the whole decade, with McCready coming very close in 2018, but not quite as close as what happened in real life



Demographics: 56% White, 24% Hispanic, 7% Black, 10% Asian, 4% Native American

2020 President: D + 6.4
2012/2016 Cook PVI: R + 3.9
Composite: D + 2.8
2020 Senate: D + 7.8
2018 Senate: D + 8
2018 Attorney General: R + 0.2
2018 Governor: R + 8.5
2018 Senate: R + 15.2
2016 President: R + 0.4
2016/2020 Cook PVI: Even

[GregTheGreat657]

62% White, 14% Hispanic, 17% Black, 6% Asian

2016 Pres: Trump+8
2018 Gov: Lee+3
2018 Sen: Bredesen+9
2020 Pres: Biden+0.9
2020 Sen: Hagerty+6

Probably R for the whole decade, though there would be a not-so-insignificant chance that the Democrat flipped the seat in 2018, but if that happened, it would have flipped back to the GOP if the nominee were a generic R or were stronger than the generic R.



Demographics: 34% White, 34% Hispanic, 25% Black, 6% Asian, 2% Native American
2020 Vote: Trump + 0.5
2012/2016 PVI: R + 2.4
Composite: R + 1.7
2020 Senate: Cornyn + 3.1
2018 Lieutenant Governor: Collier + 0.2
2018 Governor: Abbott + 7.1
2018 Attorney General: Nelson + 1.8
2018 US Senator: O'Rourke + 1.2
2016 President: Trump + 1.8
2014 Governor: Abbott + 5.4
2014 Senate: Cornyn + 10.8
2016/2020 PVI: R + 2.1

[GregTheGreat657]

62% White, 14% Hispanic, 17% Black, 6% Asian

2016 Pres: Trump+8
2018 Gov: Lee+3
2018 Sen: Bredesen+9
2020 Pres: Biden+0.9
2020 Sen: Hagerty+6

Probably R for the whole decade, though there would be a not-so-insignificant chance that the Democrat flipped the seat in 2018, but if that happened, it would have flipped back to the GOP if the nominee were a generic R or were stronger than the generic R.



Demographics: 34% White, 34% Hispanic, 25% Black, 6% Asian, 2% Native American
2020 Vote: Trump + 0.5
2012/2016 PVI: R + 2.4
Composite: R + 1.7
2020 Senate: Cornyn + 3.1
2018 Lieutenant Governor: Collier + 0.2
2018 Governor: Abbott + 7.1
2018 Attorney General: Nelson + 1.8
2018 US Senator: O'Rourke + 1.2
2016 President: Trump + 1.8
2014 Governor: Abbott + 5.4
2014 Senate: Cornyn + 10.8
2016/2020 PVI: R + 2.1

Consistently narrow yet consistenly Republican. 2018 was probably the Democratic high mark there and the R wins by less than a point.



This is a 2010s district. It was 71% white in 2010 but is down to 66% white.

President 2016: Trump+7.2
Governor 2017: Gillespie+5.2
Lt. Governor 2018: Vogel+8.3
Attorney General 2018: Adams+8.3
Senator 2018: Kaine+4.7
President 2020: Biden+0.6
Senator 2020: Warner+1.3

Since Solid didn't post a district, here is one



Demographics: 78% White, 5% Hispanic, 6% Black, 8% Asian

2020 President: Biden + 4.4
2012/2016 PVI: R + 2.4
2020 Senate: Smith + 1.6
2018 Senate: Klobuchar + 19.6
2018 Senate Special: Smith + 3.6
2018 Governor: Walz + 5
2018 Attorney General: Wardlow + 3.6
2016 President: Trump + 2.3
2014 Senator: Franken + 0.8
2014 Attorney General: Swanson + 8.7
2014 Governor: Johnson + 3.3

[GregTheGreat657]

Probably Rep in 2012, 2014, and 2016, then Dem in 2018 and 2020, though hard to say who.



2010s District

Trump + 9.8 in 2020, Trump + 15.5 in 2016.

Holds for Republicans the whole decade, though it comes within 5 in 2018.



Demographics: 79% White, 3% Hispanic, 13% Black, 4% Asian

2020 President: Biden + 0.2
2012/2016 PVI: D + 0.5
Composite: D + 1.5
2018 Attorney General: Dettelbach + 6
2018 Senate: Brown + 13.8
2018 Governor: Cordray + 5.2
2016 Senate: Portman + 12.9
2016 President: Trump + 0.2
2016/2020 PVI: R + 1.5

[GregTheGreat657]

Probably Rep in 2012, 2014, and 2016, then Dem in 2018 and 2020, though hard to say who.



2010s District

Trump + 9.8 in 2020, Trump + 15.5 in 2016.

Holds for Republicans the whole decade, though it comes within 5 in 2018.



Demographics: 79% White, 3% Hispanic, 13% Black, 4% Asian

2020 President: Biden + 0.2
2012/2016 PVI: D + 0.5
Composite: D + 1.5
2018 Attorney General: Dettelbach + 6
2018 Senate: Brown + 13.8
2018 Governor: Cordray + 5.2
2016 Senate: Portman + 12.9
2016 President: Trump + 0.2
2016/2020 PVI: R + 1.5

Tim Ryan holds the seat from 2012 to 2020, even though it proves extremely close in 2020. The 2022 race is between Dan Horrigan and Madison Gesiotto Gilbert, and rated Likely R.



VAP Demographics: 50.5% White, 39% Black, 5.5% Hispanic, 3% Asian, 2% Native American
2012/2016 Cook PVI: D +1.5
President 2016: HRC +5.1
Senate 2016: Isakson +4.5
Governor 2018: Abrams +7.2
2016/2020 Cook PVI: D +1.9
President 2020: Biden +8.4
Senate 2021: Ossoff +9.2
Senate Sp. 2021: Warnock +9.6
Composite 2012-2020: D +5.2

This district probably elects John Barrow through 2016 then he runs for SOS in 2018. Dems still hold it in 2018 and 2020.



A 2010s district. 52% white, 19% Asian, 18% Hispanic, and 11% black by 2020

Pres 2016: Trump+4.5
Sen 2016: Heck+4.3
Gov 2018: Sisolak+0.6
LG 2018: Marshall+1.2
AG 2018: Duncan+3.5
Sen 2018: Rosen+0.9
Pres 2020: Trump+2.9

Holds for Republicans the whole decade, though in 2018, the Republican only wins by a tilt margin



Demographics: 79% White, 7% Hispanic, 6% Black, 7% Asian

2020 President: Biden + 5.4
2012/2016 Cook PVI: R + 3.7
Composite: D + 2.9
2020 Treasurer: Garrity + 2.3
2020 Auditor: DeFoor + 4.6
2020 Attorney General: Shapiro + 0.9
2018 Senator: Casey + 10.4
2018 Governor: Wolf + 14.4
2016 President: Trump + 0.8
2016 Attorney General: Rafferty + 8.2
2016 Senator: Toomey + 10.2
2016/2020 Cook PVI: R + 0.4

[GregTheGreat657]

2010s district. This district is 81% White and 9% black

2016 Pres: Trump+5.6
2016 Gov: Koster+8.7
2016 Lt. Gov: Carnahan+6.4
2016 AG: Hawley+4.2
2016 Sen: Kander+13.4

2018 Sen: McCaskill+12.6

2020 Pres: Trump+1.3
2020 Gov: Parson+1.0
2020 LG: Kehoe+5.1
2020 AG: Schmitt+7.5
2020 SOS: Ashcroft+10.3
2020 Treas: Fitzpatrick+6.5

Voted Dem in 2012, GOP in 2014 and 2016, Dem in 2018, and GOP in 2020



2010s district

Demographics (2010): 43% White, 24% Hispanic, 32% Black
Demographics (2020): 36% White, 31% Hispanic, 30% Black

President 2008: Obama + 9.8
2012/2016 Cook PVI: Even
2014 Governor: Davis + 1.8
2014 Senator: Cornyn + 3.4
2016 President: Trump + 0.7
2018 Senator: O'Rourke + 4.1
2018 Attorney General: Nelson + 4.3
2018 Governor: Abbott + 4.4
2018 Lieutenant Governor: Collier + 3.8
2020 Senator: Cornyn + 0.9
Composite: D + 0.5
2020 President: Biden + 1.5
2016/2020 PVI: R + 1.4

[GregTheGreat657]

2010s district

Demographics (2010): 43% White, 24% Hispanic, 32% Black
Demographics (2020): 36% White, 31% Hispanic, 30% Black

President 2008: Obama + 9.8
2012/2016 Cook PVI: Even
2014 Governor: Davis + 1.8
2014 Senator: Cornyn + 3.4
2016 President: Trump + 0.7
2018 Senator: O'Rourke + 4.1
2018 Attorney General: Nelson + 4.3
2018 Governor: Abbott + 4.4
2018 Lieutenant Governor: Collier + 3.8
2020 Senator: Cornyn + 0.9
Composite: D + 0.5
2020 President: Biden + 1.5
2016/2020 PVI: R + 1.4

Joe Barton holds it in 2012, 2014, 2016, then retires. A first-time Democrat wins it in 2018, then narrowly loses it to Jake Ellzey in 2020.

Demographics: 83% White, 4% Hispanic, 7% Black, 4% Asian

2020 President: Biden + 0.1
2012/2016 PVI: R + 4.4
Composite: D + 1.4
2018 Senator: Gillibrand + 8.5
2018 Governor: Molinaro + 8.9
2018 Attorney General: Wofford + 10.8
2016 President: Trump + 10.5
2016 Senator: Schumer + 28.1
2016/2020 PVI: R + 4.3

[GregTheGreat657]

2010s district

Demographics (2010): 43% White, 24% Hispanic, 32% Black
Demographics (2020): 36% White, 31% Hispanic, 30% Black

President 2008: Obama + 9.8
2012/2016 Cook PVI: Even
2014 Governor: Davis + 1.8
2014 Senator: Cornyn + 3.4
2016 President: Trump + 0.7
2018 Senator: O'Rourke + 4.1
2018 Attorney General: Nelson + 4.3
2018 Governor: Abbott + 4.4
2018 Lieutenant Governor: Collier + 3.8
2020 Senator: Cornyn + 0.9
Composite: D + 0.5
2020 President: Biden + 1.5
2016/2020 PVI: R + 1.4

Joe Barton holds it in 2012, 2014, 2016, then retires. A first-time Democrat wins it in 2018, then narrowly loses it to Jake Ellzey in 2020.

Demographics: 83% White, 4% Hispanic, 7% Black, 4% Asian

2020 President: Biden + 0.1
2012/2016 PVI: R + 4.4
Composite: D + 1.4
2018 Senator: Gillibrand + 8.5
2018 Governor: Molinaro + 8.9
2018 Attorney General: Wofford + 10.8
2016 President: Trump + 10.5
2016 Senator: Schumer + 28.1
2016/2020 PVI: R + 4.3

Kathy Hochul defeats Chris Collins in 2012 then loses the seat in a 2014 rematch. Collins holds it in 2016 then gets swept out in 2018 wave after his scandal comes out. 2020 is very close but I think Chris Jacobs narrowly flips it thanks to ancestral Erie Republicans.

Demographics: 72% White, 13% Hispanic, 10% Black, 4% Asian

Composite: R + 0.2
2020 President: Biden + 1.5
2018 Senator: Baldwin + 8.7
2018 Governor: Walker + 1.3
2018 Attorney General: Schimel + 2.1
2016 President: Trump + 1.1
2016 Senator: Johnson + 6.7
2012/2016 PVI: R + 1.4
2016/2020 PVI: R + 1.4

[GregTheGreat657]

VAP Demographics: 50.4% White, 34% Hispanic, 10.5% AAPI, 4% Black, 3.7% Native American
2012/2016 Cook PVI: R +3.1
President 2016: HRC +2.9
Governor 2018: Cox +0.6
At Gen 2018: Becerra +2.6
2016/2020 Cook PVI: D +1.9
President 2020: Biden +10.2
Composite 2012-2020: D +4.3

Darrell Issa holds the seat in 2012, 2014, and 2016.  He retires in 2018 and Mike Levin flips the seat and barely squeaks by in 2020 despite Biden winning it by 10.

VAP: 50% White, 29% Hispanic. 13% Black, 7% Asian

2020 President: Trump + 0.2
2012/2016 PVI: R + 1.6
Composite: R + 1.9
2018 Attorney General: Moody + 8.1
2018 Governor: Gillum + 1.9
2018 Senator: Nelson + 1.2
2016 President: Clinton + 0.7
2016 Senator: Rubio + 6.8
2016/2020 PVI: R + 1.4

[GregTheGreat657]

VAP Demographics: 50.4% White, 34% Hispanic, 10.5% AAPI, 4% Black, 3.7% Native American
2012/2016 Cook PVI: R +3.1
President 2016: HRC +2.9
Governor 2018: Cox +0.6
At Gen 2018: Becerra +2.6
2016/2020 Cook PVI: D +1.9
President 2020: Biden +10.2
Composite 2012-2020: D +4.3

Darrell Issa holds the seat in 2012, 2014, and 2016.  He retires in 2018 and Mike Levin flips the seat and barely squeaks by in 2020 despite Biden winning it by 10.

VAP: 50% White, 29% Hispanic. 13% Black, 7% Asian

2020 President: Trump + 0.2
2012/2016 PVI: R + 1.6
Composite: R + 1.9
2018 Attorney General: Moody + 8.1
2018 Governor: Gillum + 1.9
2018 Senator: Nelson + 1.2
2016 President: Clinton + 0.7
2016 Senator: Rubio + 6.8
2016/2020 PVI: R + 1.4

Some establishment backbencher Republican holds the seat in 2012, 2014, and 2016. Then he retires and Ross Spano loses in 2018. Republicans win it back in 2020.

Voting Age Population: 48% White, 6% Hispanic, 43% Black, 2% Asian

2020 President: Trump + 0.9
2012/2016 PVI: R + 1.6
Composite: R + 3.7
2020 Special Senate/2021 Special Runoff: R + 1.9/Warnock + 0.6
2020 Senate/2021 Runoff: Perdue + 2.9/Ossoff + 0.4
2018 Attorney General: Carr + 3.0
2018 Governor: Kemp + 2.7
2018 Lieutenant Governor: Duncan + 5.2
2016 President: Trump + 3.1
2016 Senator: Isakson + 10.4
2016/2020 PVI: R + 2.6

[GregTheGreat657]

VAP Demographics: 50.4% White, 34% Hispanic, 10.5% AAPI, 4% Black, 3.7% Native American
2012/2016 Cook PVI: R +3.1
President 2016: HRC +2.9
Governor 2018: Cox +0.6
At Gen 2018: Becerra +2.6
2016/2020 Cook PVI: D +1.9
President 2020: Biden +10.2
Composite 2012-2020: D +4.3

Darrell Issa holds the seat in 2012, 2014, and 2016.  He retires in 2018 and Mike Levin flips the seat and barely squeaks by in 2020 despite Biden winning it by 10.

VAP: 50% White, 29% Hispanic. 13% Black, 7% Asian

2020 President: Trump + 0.2
2012/2016 PVI: R + 1.6
Composite: R + 1.9
2018 Attorney General: Moody + 8.1
2018 Governor: Gillum + 1.9
2018 Senator: Nelson + 1.2
2016 President: Clinton + 0.7
2016 Senator: Rubio + 6.8
2016/2020 PVI: R + 1.4

Some establishment backbencher Republican holds the seat in 2012, 2014, and 2016. Then he retires and Ross Spano loses in 2018. Republicans win it back in 2020.

Voting Age Population: 48% White, 6% Hispanic, 43% Black, 2% Asian

2020 President: Trump + 0.9
2012/2016 PVI: R + 1.6
Composite: R + 3.7
2020 Special Senate/2021 Special Runoff: R + 1.9/Warnock + 0.6
2020 Senate/2021 Runoff: Perdue + 2.9/Ossoff + 0.4
2018 Attorney General: Carr + 3.0
2018 Governor: Kemp + 2.7
2018 Lieutenant Governor: Duncan + 5.2
2016 President: Trump + 3.1
2016 Senator: Isakson + 10.4
2016/2020 PVI: R + 2.6

Sanford Bishop manages to hold that seat the entire decade though 2020 is relatively close.

VAP: 55% White, 24% Hispanic, 10% Black, 10% Asian

2020 President: Biden + 7.3
2012/2016 PVI: R + 6.7
Composite: D + 3.1
2020 Senate: Hegar + 3.0
2018 Lt. Governor: Collier + 4.4
2018 Governor: Abbott + 4.6
2018 Attorney General: Nelson + 6.8
2018 Senate: O'Rourke + 8.7
2016 President: Trump + 4.0
2014 Governor: Abbott + 15.6
2014 Senator: Cornyn + 24.2
2016/2020 PVI: R + 0.8

[GregTheGreat657]

VAP Demographics: 50.4% White, 34% Hispanic, 10.5% AAPI, 4% Black, 3.7% Native American
2012/2016 Cook PVI: R +3.1
President 2016: HRC +2.9
Governor 2018: Cox +0.6
At Gen 2018: Becerra +2.6
2016/2020 Cook PVI: D +1.9
President 2020: Biden +10.2
Composite 2012-2020: D +4.3

Darrell Issa holds the seat in 2012, 2014, and 2016.  He retires in 2018 and Mike Levin flips the seat and barely squeaks by in 2020 despite Biden winning it by 10.

VAP: 50% White, 29% Hispanic. 13% Black, 7% Asian

2020 President: Trump + 0.2
2012/2016 PVI: R + 1.6
Composite: R + 1.9
2018 Attorney General: Moody + 8.1
2018 Governor: Gillum + 1.9
2018 Senator: Nelson + 1.2
2016 President: Clinton + 0.7
2016 Senator: Rubio + 6.8
2016/2020 PVI: R + 1.4

Some establishment backbencher Republican holds the seat in 2012, 2014, and 2016. Then he retires and Ross Spano loses in 2018. Republicans win it back in 2020.

Voting Age Population: 48% White, 6% Hispanic, 43% Black, 2% Asian

2020 President: Trump + 0.9
2012/2016 PVI: R + 1.6
Composite: R + 3.7
2020 Special Senate/2021 Special Runoff: R + 1.9/Warnock + 0.6
2020 Senate/2021 Runoff: Perdue + 2.9/Ossoff + 0.4
2018 Attorney General: Carr + 3.0
2018 Governor: Kemp + 2.7
2018 Lieutenant Governor: Duncan + 5.2
2016 President: Trump + 3.1
2016 Senator: Isakson + 10.4
2016/2020 PVI: R + 2.6

Sanford Bishop manages to hold that seat the entire decade though 2020 is relatively close.

VAP: 55% White, 24% Hispanic, 10% Black, 10% Asian

2020 President: Biden + 7.3
2012/2016 PVI: R + 6.7
Composite: D + 3.1
2020 Senate: Hegar + 3.0
2018 Lt. Governor: Collier + 4.4
2018 Governor: Abbott + 4.6
2018 Attorney General: Nelson + 6.8
2018 Senate: O'Rourke + 8.7
2016 President: Trump + 4.0
2014 Governor: Abbott + 15.6
2014 Senator: Cornyn + 24.2
2016/2020 PVI: R + 0.8

John Carter holds that seat from 2012 to 2016, then loses it in 2018 to MJ Hegar. Hegar runs for Senate in 2020 and Democrats narrowly hold it.

VAP: 74% White, 16% Hispanic, 2% Black, 3% Asian, 5% Native American

2020 President: Biden + 1.1
2012/2016 PVI: R + 2.4
Composite: D + 0.1
2020 Treasurer: Gudman + 1.8
2020 Attorney General: Rosenblum + 0.8
2020 Senator: Merkley + 3.4
2018 Governor: Buehler + 6.4
2016 Senator: Wyden + 11.0
2016 President: Trump + 3.7
2016 Attorney General: Rosenblum + 2.0
2016 Governor: Pierce + 8.8
2016/2020 PVI: R + 2.3

[GregTheGreat657]

Gov 2014: Abbott+27.8
Sen 2014: Cornyn+38.8
Pres 2016: Trump+2.5
Gov 2018: Abbott+9.1
Lt. Gov 2018: Collier+1.1
AG 2018: Nelson+3.5
Senate 2018: O’Rourke+4
Pres 2020: Biden+4.2
Sen 2020: Cornyn+2.6

Holds for the GOP until 2018, but could have possibly flipped back in 2020




VAP: 32% White, 33% Hispanic, 6% Black, 28% Asian

2020 President: Biden + 3.5
2012/2016 PVI: R + 3
2018 Attorney General: Bailey + 4.0
2018 Governor: Cox + 7.4
2016 President: Clinton + 1.3
2016/2020 PVI: Even

[GregTheGreat657]

Democratic the whole decade, but probably flips in 2022



VAP: 80% White, 7% Hispanic, 2% Black, 4% Asian, 5% Native American

2020 President: Biden + 3.9
2012/2016 PVI: D + 1
2020 Treasurer: Davidson + 4.1
2020 Secretary of State: Wyman + 17.7
2020 Governor: Culp + 2.0
2020 Attorney General: Larkin + 0.7
2020 Auditor: McCarthy + 2.3
2018 Senator: Cantwell + 3.4
2016 Lt Governor: McClendon + 3.2
2016 Senator: Murray + 7.8
2016 President: Clinton + 0.3
2016 Governor: Bryant + 1.8

[GregTheGreat657]

VAP: 50% White, 8% Hispanic, 30% Black, 2% Asian, 10% Native American

2020 President: Trump + 3.7
2012/2016 PVI: EVEN
2020 Treasurer: Folwell + 4.2
2020 Secretary of State: Marshall + 3.0
2020 Lt. Governor: Robinson + 3.2
2020 Governor: Cooper + 4.4
2020 Attorney General: Stein + 0.2
2020 Senator: Tillis + 2.0
2020 Auditor: Wood + 1.4
2016 Lt. Governor: Forest + 0.09
2016 Senator: Burr + 1.7
2016 Governor: McCrory + 0.8
2016 Attorney General: Stein + 6.4
2016 President: Trump + 1.2
2014 Senator: Hagan + 5.7
2016/2020 PVI: R + 3

[GregTheGreat657]

VAP: 55% White, 14% Hispanic, 23% Black, 6% Asian

2020 President: Biden + 4.2
2012/2016 PVI: R + 1
2021 Attorney General: Miyares + 6.7
2021 Governor: Youngkin + 7.9
2021 Lt. Governor: Sears + 7.1
2020 Senator: Warner + 5.7
2018 Senator Kaine + 11.0
2017 Lt. Governor: Fairfax + 0.2
2017 Governor: Northam + 2.9
2017 Attorney General: Herring + 0.9
2016 President: Clinton + 0.1

[GregTheGreat657]

2016 Pres: Trump+5.1
2018 Gov: Whitmer+4.2
2018 AG: Leonard+1.8
2018 Sen: Stabenow+1
2020 Pres: Biden+1.5
2020 Sen: James+1.6

Votes Republican in 2012, 2014, and 2016. Flips to the Dems in 2018, and flips back to the GOP in 2020.



VAP: 68% White, 4% Hispanic, 22% Black, 5% Asian

2020 President: Biden + 7.3
2012/2016 PVI: EVEN
2018 Senate: Baldwin + 7.1
2018 Attorney General: Schimel + 2.2
2018 Governor: Walker + 2.2
2016 President: Clinton + 4.9
2016 Senate: Johnson + 5.2
2016/2020 PVI: D + 1.6

[GregTheGreat657]

VAP: 69% White, 8% Hispanic, 19% Black, 1% Asian

2020 President: Trump + 2.4
2012/2016 PVI: EVEN
2020 Senate: Curran + 0.2
2018 Attorney General: Harold + 2.0
2018 Governor: Pritzker + 2.6
2016 President: Trump + 1.3
2016 Senator: Duckworth + 4.3
2016/2020 PVI: R + 2.5

[GregTheGreat657]

VAP: 48% White, 7% Hispanic, 39% Black, 4% Asian

2020 President: Biden + 5.5
2012/2016 PVI: R + 2.4
2020 Senator: Bradshaw + 0.07
2018 Governor: Lee + 1.4
2018 Senator: Bredesen + 7.3
2016 President: Trump + 0.02
2016/2020 PVI: R + 0.1

[GregTheGreat657]

IF Skill & Chance doesn't have a district to share, I'd appreciate somebody doing mine:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/38590fe0-3187-4ba9-9e35-b2460aceaf61

I know it has a lot more people than one CD should, but nonetheless.

DEMOGRAPHICS

Voting Age Population: 55.4% Hispanic, 31.5% white, 5.5% black, 4.1% Asian, 2.5% Native American


POLITICS

ELECTION: Winner (winning party), %; Loser (losing party), % (margin; margin relative to TX as a whole)
2020 PRES: Biden (D), 49.4%; Trump (R), 49.2% (D+0.2; D+5.8 )
2020 SEN: Cornyn (R), 50.5%; Hegar (D), 46.7% (R+3.8; D+5.8 )
2018 LT GOV: Collier (D), 49.3%; Patrick (R), 48.3% (D+1.0; D+5.6)
2018 GOV: Abbott (R), 52.8%; Valdez (D), 45.5% (R+7.3; D+6.0)
2018 ATTY GEN: Nelson (D), 50.7%; Paxton (R), 46.5% (D+4.1; D+7.7)
2018 SEN: O'Rourke (D), 52.1%; Cruz (R), 47.0% (D+5.1; D+7.7)
2016 PRES: Clinton (D), 47.6%; Trump (R), 46.9% (D+0.7; D+9.7)
2014 GOV: Abbott (R), 56.8%; Davis (D), 43.2% (R+13.6; D+6.8 )
2014 SEN: Cornyn (R), 61.7%; Alameel (D), 38.3% (R+23.4; D+3.4)
2016/2020 CPVI: R+1.3
2012/2016 CPVI: R+2.8

Alternatively, if Skill & Chance does in fact have a district he'd like to share, more than happy to guess on that first.

Votes Republican in every election except 2018



VAP: 70% White, 10% Hispanic, 12% Black, 7% Asian

2020 President: Biden + 3.5
2012/2016 PVI: R + 1.5
2020 Senator: Booker + 1.8
2018 Senator: Hugin + 4.3
2017 Governor: Guadagno + 4.9
2016 President: Trump + 2.6
2016/2020 PVI: R + 1.3

[GregTheGreat657]

IF Skill & Chance doesn't have a district to share, I'd appreciate somebody doing mine:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/38590fe0-3187-4ba9-9e35-b2460aceaf61

I know it has a lot more people than one CD should, but nonetheless.

DEMOGRAPHICS

Voting Age Population: 55.4% Hispanic, 31.5% white, 5.5% black, 4.1% Asian, 2.5% Native American


POLITICS

ELECTION: Winner (winning party), %; Loser (losing party), % (margin; margin relative to TX as a whole)
2020 PRES: Biden (D), 49.4%; Trump (R), 49.2% (D+0.2; D+5.8 )
2020 SEN: Cornyn (R), 50.5%; Hegar (D), 46.7% (R+3.8; D+5.8 )
2018 LT GOV: Collier (D), 49.3%; Patrick (R), 48.3% (D+1.0; D+5.6)
2018 GOV: Abbott (R), 52.8%; Valdez (D), 45.5% (R+7.3; D+6.0)
2018 ATTY GEN: Nelson (D), 50.7%; Paxton (R), 46.5% (D+4.1; D+7.7)
2018 SEN: O'Rourke (D), 52.1%; Cruz (R), 47.0% (D+5.1; D+7.7)
2016 PRES: Clinton (D), 47.6%; Trump (R), 46.9% (D+0.7; D+9.7)
2014 GOV: Abbott (R), 56.8%; Davis (D), 43.2% (R+13.6; D+6.8 )
2014 SEN: Cornyn (R), 61.7%; Alameel (D), 38.3% (R+23.4; D+3.4)
2016/2020 CPVI: R+1.3
2012/2016 CPVI: R+2.8

Alternatively, if Skill & Chance does in fact have a district he'd like to share, more than happy to guess on that first.

Votes Republican in every election except 2018



VAP: 70% White, 10% Hispanic, 12% Black, 7% Asian

2020 President: Biden + 3.5
2012/2016 PVI: R + 1.5
2020 Senator: Booker + 1.8
2018 Senator: Hugin + 4.3
2017 Governor: Guadagno + 4.9
2016 President: Trump + 2.6
2016/2020 PVI: R + 1.3

Chris Smith hold it until 2018 when he is defeated, and Josh Welle serves one term before losing to a Republican in 2020.

VAP: 58% White, 31% Hispanic, 5% Black, 3% Asian

2020 President: Biden + 2.1
2016/2020 PVI: R + 3.3
2020 Senator: Kelly + 3.8
2018 Senator: Sinema + 0.1
2018 AG: Contreras + 0.4
2018 Gov: Ducey + 13.8
2016 Senator: McCain + 8.3
2016 President: Trump + 1.3
2012/2016 PVI: R + 1.4

[GregTheGreat657]

VAP: 54% White, 11% Hispanic, 28% Black, 6% Asian

2020 President: Biden + 2.5
2012/2016 PVI: R + 3.7
2018 AG: Moody + 4.5
2018 Gov: Gillum + 2.7
2018 Sen: Nelson + 0.06
2016 President: Trump + 2.9
2016 Sen: Rubio + 18.1
2016/2020 PVI: R + 1.7

[GregTheGreat657]

VAP: 54% White, 11% Hispanic, 28% Black, 6% Asian

2020 President: Biden + 2.5
2012/2016 PVI: R + 3.7
2018 AG: Moody + 4.5
2018 Gov: Gillum + 2.7
2018 Sen: Nelson + 0.06
2016 President: Trump + 2.9
2016 Sen: Rubio + 18.1
2016/2020 PVI: R + 1.7

R all decade but they just barely win it in 2018.

2010 VAP: 62% White, 3% Hispanic, 33% Black, 1% Asian
2020 VAP: 60% White, 5% Hispanic, 32% Black, 1% Asian

2008 President: Obama + 4.2
2014 Senator: Hagan + 0.8
2016 Lt. Gov: Forest + 3.2
2016 Attorney General: Stein + 0.4
2016 Senator: Burr + 4.6
2016 Governor: McCrory + 2.8
2016 President: Trump + 3.3
2020 Auditor: Wood + 1.4
2020 Senator: Tillis + 4.2
2020 Attorney General: O’Neill + 2.8
2020 Governor: Forest + 0.4
2020 Lt. Gov: Robinson + 6.4
2020 Secretary of State: Marshall + 0.4
2020 Treasurer: Folwell + 6.4
2020 President: Trump + 4.3