Draw a district and predict how it wouid vote

[Roll Roons]

VAP Demographics: 69% White, 12.5% Black, 9% Hispanic, 7.5% Asian, 2% Native American
2012/2016 PVI: R+4.7
2016 Presidential: R+6.3
2016 Senator: R+4.0
2018 Senator: D+5.0
2018 Governor: R+38.1
2018 At. Gen: R+0.9
2016/2020 PVI: R+2.4
2020 Presidential: D+3.3
Composite 2016-2020: R+6.3

Roscoe Bartlett would win reelection in 2012 and probably retire in 2014 due to his age.

Since it's his actual home district, Alex Mooney runs here rather than carpetbagging to WV-02. He wins easily and holds in 2016. He ends up being too conservative for the seat and narrowly loses to David Trone in 2018 despite Hogan winning here in a landslide.

In 2020, Trone defeats Neil Parrott, whose social conservatism is a poor fit for the district. Matthew Foldi beats him this year, and who knows what happens after that.

[Roll Roons]

Demographics: 79% White, 7% Hispanic, 6% Black, 7% Asian

2020 President: Biden + 5.4
2012/2016 Cook PVI: R + 3.7
Composite: D + 2.9
2020 Treasurer: Garrity + 2.3
2020 Auditor: DeFoor + 4.6
2020 Attorney General: Shapiro + 0.9
2018 Senator: Casey + 10.4
2018 Governor: Wolf + 14.4
2016 President: Trump + 0.8
2016 Attorney General: Rafferty + 8.2
2016 Senator: Toomey + 10.2
2016/2020 Cook PVI: R + 0.4

Jim Gerlach holds it until retiring in 2014, when he's replaced by Ryan Costello. Costello loses to Houlahan in 2018.

Despite Biden's performance here, she goes down in 2020 in a rematch with Costello due to the fact that this district is very ancestrally GOP and much redder downballot. He'd be favored this year, but 2024 and beyond could be dicey.

[Roll Roons]

The Wisconsin seat would be held by a WOW Republican (Sensenbrenner?) until flipping in 2018. The Democrat holds the seat in 2020 and may have been this year's Senate nominee, making the open seat a pure tossup.