Draw a district and predict how it wouid vote

[Tekken_Guy]

Here’s a fun thread. We draw hypothetical congressional districts on VRA and speculate on how they would vote in congressional elections.

[Tekken_Guy]

Demographics: 74% White, 7% Hispanic, 12% Black, 4% Asian, 3% Native American
2020 POTUS vote: R + 0.7
2012/2016 PVI: D + 1.7
Composite: D + 2.6
2020 US Senate vote: R + 0.2
2018 US Senate vote: D + 7.4
2018 Attorney General: D + 5.1
2018 Governor: D + 10.7
2016 POTUS: R + 3.1
2016/2020 PVI: R + 2.5

For the 2010s it probably would have stayed Democratic the entire decade, though 2020 would have been very close.

For 2022 i’d say it’s more likely to stay Democratic than other districts with similar partisanship.

[Tekken_Guy]

60% White district north of Atlanta.

2016
-Trump+13.5
-Isakson+32.3

2018
-Kemp+9
-Duncan+12.6
-Carr+13.2

2020
-Biden+0.1
-Perdue+6.4
-Special GOP+5.3

2021
-Perdue+6.2
-Loeffler+4.2

[Tekken_Guy]

VAP Demographics: 54% White, 23% Hispanic, 13% Black, 9% Asian, 3% Native American
2012/2016 PVI: R+8.3
2016 Presidential: R+4.8
2018 Senator: R+3.4
2018 Governor: R+12.8
2018 Lieutenant Governor: R+1.3
2018 Attorney General: D+1.5
2016/2020 PVI: R+2
2020 Presidential: D+3.1
2020 Senate: R+5.9
Composite 2016-2020: R+2.4

2010s: Pete Sessions narrowly holds off Colin Allred in 2018 and carpetbags to Bill Flores’ seat in 2020. Allred runs again in 2020 but loses to Genevieve Collins by around the same margin as before.

2020s (assuming IRL 2010s): The seat definitely votes R in 2022, but may or may not not hold beyond that.

[Tekken_Guy]

This is a 2010s district and it’s 66% white.

2014
-Senate: Tillis+18.3

2016
-President: Trump+12.8
-Senate: Burr+18.9
-Governor: McCrory+11.7
-Lt. Governor: Forest+22.1
-Attorney General: Newton+12.8

2020
-President: Trump+5
-Senate: Tillis+9.6
-Governor: Forest+1.3
-Lt. Governor: Robinson+10
-Secretary of State: Sykes+5.8
-Attorney General: O’Neill+6.6
-Auditor: Street+6.4
-Treasurer: Folwell+14

This should normally be a straightforward always-Republican seat. The big question is would Dan McCready have won this seat?

[Tekken_Guy]

The main question here is 2022. I think Greg Stanton could probably hold the line here, but if he runs elsewhere due to a more optimal district somewhere else on the map (unlikely but possible) it is probably a narrow GOP pickup. 2024 and beyond I'd expect this seat to be fairly solidly blue, if occasionally swingy.


Demographics: 49% White, 28% Hispanic, 13% Black, 9% Asian
Composite: D +3.2
2020: Biden +7.5
Sen 2020: Hegar +0.8
Gov 2018: Abbott +4.4
Sen 2018: Beto +8.3
2016: Trump +0.1
PVI: EVEN (D+0.32)

Michael McCaul wins in 2012, 2014, and 2016, only to be defeated by a narrow margin by Mike Siegel in 2018. Siegel wins re-election in 2020 with roughly the same percentage as two years prior. The 2022 race is between Siegel and State Rep. Mike Schofield, rated Lean D, and seen as the GOP's potential last hurrah in the district before growth in Austin and Houston results in them losing it for the decade.



VAP Demographics: 76% White, 12.5% Hispanic, 7.5% AAPI, 2% Black, 2% Native American
2012/2016 Cook PVI: R +5.3
President 2016: HRC +7.2
Senate 2016: Lee +15.7
Governor 2016: Herbert +12.0
At. Gen 2016: Reyes +17.9
Senate 2018: Romney +7.0
2016/2020 Cook PVI: D +3.4
President 2020: Biden +9.8
Governor 2020: Cox +7.3
At. Gen 2020: Skordas +1.9
Composite 2012-2020: R +5.8

Jim Matheson easily wins in 2012 before retiring in 2014. Republicans narrowly hold the seat for two terms (Mia Love doesn’t live here so it may not be with her) before losing it to Ben McAdams. R’s largely don’t seriously contest the seat in 2020 and Burgess Owens is mostly a sacrificial lamb. But they are serious about winning it back in 2022 with a stronger R.

[Tekken_Guy]

62% White, 14% Hispanic, 17% Black, 6% Asian

2016 Pres: Trump+8
2018 Gov: Lee+3
2018 Sen: Bredesen+9
2020 Pres: Biden+0.9
2020 Sen: Hagerty+6

[Tekken_Guy]

62% White, 14% Hispanic, 17% Black, 6% Asian

2016 Pres: Trump+8
2018 Gov: Lee+3
2018 Sen: Bredesen+9
2020 Pres: Biden+0.9
2020 Sen: Hagerty+6

Probably R for the whole decade, though there would be a not-so-insignificant chance that the Democrat flipped the seat in 2018, but if that happened, it would have flipped back to the GOP if the nominee were a generic R or were stronger than the generic R.



Demographics: 34% White, 34% Hispanic, 25% Black, 6% Asian, 2% Native American
2020 Vote: Trump + 0.5
2012/2016 PVI: R + 2.4
Composite: R + 1.7
2020 Senate: Cornyn + 3.1
2018 Lieutenant Governor: Collier + 0.2
2018 Governor: Abbott + 7.1
2018 Attorney General: Nelson + 1.8
2018 US Senator: O'Rourke + 1.2
2016 President: Trump + 1.8
2014 Governor: Abbott + 5.4
2014 Senate: Cornyn + 10.8
2016/2020 PVI: R + 2.1

Consistently narrow yet consistenly Republican. 2018 was probably the Democratic high mark there and the R wins by less than a point.



This is a 2010s district. It was 71% white in 2010 but is down to 66% white.

President 2016: Trump+7.2
Governor 2017: Gillespie+5.2
Lt. Governor 2018: Vogel+8.3
Attorney General 2018: Adams+8.3
Senator 2018: Kaine+4.7
President 2020: Biden+0.6
Senator 2020: Warner+1.3

[Tekken_Guy]

Probably Rep in 2012, 2014, and 2016, then Dem in 2018 and 2020, though hard to say who.



2010s District

Trump + 9.8 in 2020, Trump + 15.5 in 2016.

Holds for Republicans the whole decade, though it comes within 5 in 2018.



Demographics: 79% White, 3% Hispanic, 13% Black, 4% Asian

2020 President: Biden + 0.2
2012/2016 PVI: D + 0.5
Composite: D + 1.5
2018 Attorney General: Dettelbach + 6
2018 Senate: Brown + 13.8
2018 Governor: Cordray + 5.2
2016 Senate: Portman + 12.9
2016 President: Trump + 0.2
2016/2020 PVI: R + 1.5

Tim Ryan holds the seat from 2012 to 2020, even though it proves extremely close in 2020. The 2022 race is between Dan Horrigan and Madison Gesiotto Gilbert, and rated Likely R.



VAP Demographics: 50.5% White, 39% Black, 5.5% Hispanic, 3% Asian, 2% Native American
2012/2016 Cook PVI: D +1.5
President 2016: HRC +5.1
Senate 2016: Isakson +4.5
Governor 2018: Abrams +7.2
2016/2020 Cook PVI: D +1.9
President 2020: Biden +8.4
Senate 2021: Ossoff +9.2
Senate Sp. 2021: Warnock +9.6
Composite 2012-2020: D +5.2

This district probably elects John Barrow through 2016 then he runs for SOS in 2018. Dems still hold it in 2018 and 2020.



A 2010s district. 52% white, 19% Asian, 18% Hispanic, and 11% black by 2020

Pres 2016: Trump+4.5
Sen 2016: Heck+4.3
Gov 2018: Sisolak+0.6
LG 2018: Marshall+1.2
AG 2018: Duncan+3.5
Sen 2018: Rosen+0.9
Pres 2020: Trump+2.9

[Tekken_Guy]

Demographics: 79% White, 7% Hispanic, 6% Black, 7% Asian

2020 President: Biden + 5.4
2012/2016 Cook PVI: R + 3.7
Composite: D + 2.9
2020 Treasurer: Garrity + 2.3
2020 Auditor: DeFoor + 4.6
2020 Attorney General: Shapiro + 0.9
2018 Senator: Casey + 10.4
2018 Governor: Wolf + 14.4
2016 President: Trump + 0.8
2016 Attorney General: Rafferty + 8.2
2016 Senator: Toomey + 10.2
2016/2020 Cook PVI: R + 0.4

Jim Gerlach holds it until retiring in 2014, when he's replaced by Ryan Costello. Costello loses to Houlahan in 2018.

Despite Biden's performance here, she goes down in 2020 in a rematch with Costello due to the fact that this district is very ancestrally GOP and much redder downballot. He'd be favored this year, but 2024 and beyond could be dicey.

A Costello rematch is honestly the only scenario in which I see Houlahan losing this district in 2020. I  had Costello retiring like he did IRL and Houlahan winning re-election against a non-Costello opponent.

[Tekken_Guy]

2010s district. This district is 81% White and 9% black

2016 Pres: Trump+5.6
2016 Gov: Koster+8.7
2016 Lt. Gov: Carnahan+6.4
2016 AG: Hawley+4.2
2016 Sen: Kander+13.4

2018 Sen: McCaskill+12.6

2020 Pres: Trump+1.3
2020 Gov: Parson+1.0
2020 LG: Kehoe+5.1
2020 AG: Schmitt+7.5
2020 SOS: Ashcroft+10.3
2020 Treas: Fitzpatrick+6.5

[Tekken_Guy]

2010s district

Demographics (2010): 43% White, 24% Hispanic, 32% Black
Demographics (2020): 36% White, 31% Hispanic, 30% Black

President 2008: Obama + 9.8
2012/2016 Cook PVI: Even
2014 Governor: Davis + 1.8
2014 Senator: Cornyn + 3.4
2016 President: Trump + 0.7
2018 Senator: O'Rourke + 4.1
2018 Attorney General: Nelson + 4.3
2018 Governor: Abbott + 4.4
2018 Lieutenant Governor: Collier + 3.8
2020 Senator: Cornyn + 0.9
Composite: D + 0.5
2020 President: Biden + 1.5
2016/2020 PVI: R + 1.4

Joe Barton holds it in 2012, 2014, 2016, then retires. A first-time Democrat wins it in 2018, then narrowly loses it to Jake Ellzey in 2020.

[Tekken_Guy]

2010s district

Demographics (2010): 43% White, 24% Hispanic, 32% Black
Demographics (2020): 36% White, 31% Hispanic, 30% Black

President 2008: Obama + 9.8
2012/2016 Cook PVI: Even
2014 Governor: Davis + 1.8
2014 Senator: Cornyn + 3.4
2016 President: Trump + 0.7
2018 Senator: O'Rourke + 4.1
2018 Attorney General: Nelson + 4.3
2018 Governor: Abbott + 4.4
2018 Lieutenant Governor: Collier + 3.8
2020 Senator: Cornyn + 0.9
Composite: D + 0.5
2020 President: Biden + 1.5
2016/2020 PVI: R + 1.4

Joe Barton holds it in 2012, 2014, 2016, then retires. A first-time Democrat wins it in 2018, then narrowly loses it to Jake Ellzey in 2020.

Demographics: 83% White, 4% Hispanic, 7% Black, 4% Asian

2020 President: Biden + 0.1
2012/2016 PVI: R + 4.4
Composite: D + 1.4
2018 Senator: Gillibrand + 8.5
2018 Governor: Molinaro + 8.9
2018 Attorney General: Wofford + 10.8
2016 President: Trump + 10.5
2016 Senator: Schumer + 28.1
2016/2020 PVI: R + 4.3

Kathy Hochul defeats Chris Collins in 2012 then loses the seat in a 2014 rematch. Collins holds it in 2016 then gets swept out in 2018 wave after his scandal comes out. 2020 is very close but I think Chris Jacobs narrowly flips it thanks to ancestral Erie Republicans.

[Tekken_Guy]

2010s district

Demographics (2010): 43% White, 24% Hispanic, 32% Black
Demographics (2020): 36% White, 31% Hispanic, 30% Black

President 2008: Obama + 9.8
2012/2016 Cook PVI: Even
2014 Governor: Davis + 1.8
2014 Senator: Cornyn + 3.4
2016 President: Trump + 0.7
2018 Senator: O'Rourke + 4.1
2018 Attorney General: Nelson + 4.3
2018 Governor: Abbott + 4.4
2018 Lieutenant Governor: Collier + 3.8
2020 Senator: Cornyn + 0.9
Composite: D + 0.5
2020 President: Biden + 1.5
2016/2020 PVI: R + 1.4

Joe Barton holds it in 2012, 2014, 2016, then retires. A first-time Democrat wins it in 2018, then narrowly loses it to Jake Ellzey in 2020.

Demographics: 83% White, 4% Hispanic, 7% Black, 4% Asian

2020 President: Biden + 0.1
2012/2016 PVI: R + 4.4
Composite: D + 1.4
2018 Senator: Gillibrand + 8.5
2018 Governor: Molinaro + 8.9
2018 Attorney General: Wofford + 10.8
2016 President: Trump + 10.5
2016 Senator: Schumer + 28.1
2016/2020 PVI: R + 4.3

Kathy Hochul defeats Chris Collins in 2012 then loses the seat in a 2014 rematch. Collins holds it in 2016 then gets swept out in 2018 wave after his scandal comes out. 2020 is very close but I think Chris Jacobs narrowly flips it thanks to ancestral Erie Republicans.

Demographics: 72% White, 13% Hispanic, 10% Black, 4% Asian

Composite: R + 0.2
2020 President: Biden + 1.5
2018 Senator: Baldwin + 8.7
2018 Governor: Walker + 1.3
2018 Attorney General: Schimel + 2.1
2016 President: Trump + 1.1
2016 Senator: Johnson + 6.7
2012/2016 PVI: R + 1.4
2016/2020 PVI: R + 1.4

'

It looks like this held for Republicans the full decade, but was very close in 2018. Neither Paul Ryan nor Bryan Steil would ever hold this seat as they're from Janesville. IRL Steil ran ahead of Walker in 2018 so if Walker carried it so did the GOP in this seat.

[Tekken_Guy]

VAP Demographics: 50.4% White, 34% Hispanic, 10.5% AAPI, 4% Black, 3.7% Native American
2012/2016 Cook PVI: R +3.1
President 2016: HRC +2.9
Governor 2018: Cox +0.6
At Gen 2018: Becerra +2.6
2016/2020 Cook PVI: D +1.9
President 2020: Biden +10.2
Composite 2012-2020: D +4.3

Darrell Issa holds the seat in 2012, 2014, and 2016.  He retires in 2018 and Mike Levin flips the seat and barely squeaks by in 2020 despite Biden winning it by 10.

[Tekken_Guy]

VAP Demographics: 50.4% White, 34% Hispanic, 10.5% AAPI, 4% Black, 3.7% Native American
2012/2016 Cook PVI: R +3.1
President 2016: HRC +2.9
Governor 2018: Cox +0.6
At Gen 2018: Becerra +2.6
2016/2020 Cook PVI: D +1.9
President 2020: Biden +10.2
Composite 2012-2020: D +4.3

Darrell Issa holds the seat in 2012, 2014, and 2016.  He retires in 2018 and Mike Levin flips the seat and barely squeaks by in 2020 despite Biden winning it by 10.

VAP: 50% White, 29% Hispanic. 13% Black, 7% Asian

2020 President: Trump + 0.2
2012/2016 PVI: R + 1.6
Composite: R + 1.9
2018 Attorney General: Moody + 8.1
2018 Governor: Gillum + 1.9
2018 Senator: Nelson + 1.2
2016 President: Clinton + 0.7
2016 Senator: Rubio + 6.8
2016/2020 PVI: R + 1.4

Some establishment backbencher Republican holds the seat in 2012, 2014, and 2016. Then he retires and Ross Spano loses in 2018. Republicans win it back in 2020.

[Tekken_Guy]

VAP Demographics: 50.4% White, 34% Hispanic, 10.5% AAPI, 4% Black, 3.7% Native American
2012/2016 Cook PVI: R +3.1
President 2016: HRC +2.9
Governor 2018: Cox +0.6
At Gen 2018: Becerra +2.6
2016/2020 Cook PVI: D +1.9
President 2020: Biden +10.2
Composite 2012-2020: D +4.3

Darrell Issa holds the seat in 2012, 2014, and 2016.  He retires in 2018 and Mike Levin flips the seat and barely squeaks by in 2020 despite Biden winning it by 10.

VAP: 50% White, 29% Hispanic. 13% Black, 7% Asian

2020 President: Trump + 0.2
2012/2016 PVI: R + 1.6
Composite: R + 1.9
2018 Attorney General: Moody + 8.1
2018 Governor: Gillum + 1.9
2018 Senator: Nelson + 1.2
2016 President: Clinton + 0.7
2016 Senator: Rubio + 6.8
2016/2020 PVI: R + 1.4

Some establishment backbencher Republican holds the seat in 2012, 2014, and 2016. Then he retires and Ross Spano loses in 2018. Republicans win it back in 2020.

Voting Age Population: 48% White, 6% Hispanic, 43% Black, 2% Asian

2020 President: Trump + 0.9
2012/2016 PVI: R + 1.6
Composite: R + 3.7
2020 Special Senate/2021 Special Runoff: R + 1.9/Warnock + 0.6
2020 Senate/2021 Runoff: Perdue + 2.9/Ossoff + 0.4
2018 Attorney General: Carr + 3.0
2018 Governor: Kemp + 2.7
2018 Lieutenant Governor: Duncan + 5.2
2016 President: Trump + 3.1
2016 Senator: Isakson + 10.4
2016/2020 PVI: R + 2.6

Sanford Bishop manages to hold that seat the entire decade though 2020 is relatively close.

[Tekken_Guy]

VAP Demographics: 50.4% White, 34% Hispanic, 10.5% AAPI, 4% Black, 3.7% Native American
2012/2016 Cook PVI: R +3.1
President 2016: HRC +2.9
Governor 2018: Cox +0.6
At Gen 2018: Becerra +2.6
2016/2020 Cook PVI: D +1.9
President 2020: Biden +10.2
Composite 2012-2020: D +4.3

Darrell Issa holds the seat in 2012, 2014, and 2016.  He retires in 2018 and Mike Levin flips the seat and barely squeaks by in 2020 despite Biden winning it by 10.

VAP: 50% White, 29% Hispanic. 13% Black, 7% Asian

2020 President: Trump + 0.2
2012/2016 PVI: R + 1.6
Composite: R + 1.9
2018 Attorney General: Moody + 8.1
2018 Governor: Gillum + 1.9
2018 Senator: Nelson + 1.2
2016 President: Clinton + 0.7
2016 Senator: Rubio + 6.8
2016/2020 PVI: R + 1.4

Some establishment backbencher Republican holds the seat in 2012, 2014, and 2016. Then he retires and Ross Spano loses in 2018. Republicans win it back in 2020.

Voting Age Population: 48% White, 6% Hispanic, 43% Black, 2% Asian

2020 President: Trump + 0.9
2012/2016 PVI: R + 1.6
Composite: R + 3.7
2020 Special Senate/2021 Special Runoff: R + 1.9/Warnock + 0.6
2020 Senate/2021 Runoff: Perdue + 2.9/Ossoff + 0.4
2018 Attorney General: Carr + 3.0
2018 Governor: Kemp + 2.7
2018 Lieutenant Governor: Duncan + 5.2
2016 President: Trump + 3.1
2016 Senator: Isakson + 10.4
2016/2020 PVI: R + 2.6

Sanford Bishop manages to hold that seat the entire decade though 2020 is relatively close.

VAP: 55% White, 24% Hispanic, 10% Black, 10% Asian

2020 President: Biden + 7.3
2012/2016 PVI: R + 6.7
Composite: D + 3.1
2020 Senate: Hegar + 3.0
2018 Lt. Governor: Collier + 4.4
2018 Governor: Abbott + 4.6
2018 Attorney General: Nelson + 6.8
2018 Senate: O'Rourke + 8.7
2016 President: Trump + 4.0
2014 Governor: Abbott + 15.6
2014 Senator: Cornyn + 24.2
2016/2020 PVI: R + 0.8

John Carter holds that seat from 2012 to 2016, then loses it in 2018 to MJ Hegar. Hegar runs for Senate in 2020 and Democrats narrowly hold it.

[Tekken_Guy]

VAP: 74% White, 16% Hispanic, 2% Black, 3% Asian, 5% Native American

2020 President: Biden + 1.1
2012/2016 PVI: R + 2.4
Composite: D + 0.1
2020 Treasurer: Gudman + 1.8
2020 Attorney General: Rosenblum + 0.8
2020 Senator: Merkley + 3.4
2018 Governor: Buehler + 6.4
2016 Senator: Wyden + 11.0
2016 President: Trump + 3.7
2016 Attorney General: Rosenblum + 2.0
2016 Governor: Pierce + 8.8
2016/2020 PVI: R + 2.3

I think this seat would have been Democratic the whole 2010s but would finally flip in 2022.

[Tekken_Guy]

Since Tekken didn't post a map, I'll post one (2010s seat):


2008: McCain+4.9
2012: Romney+20.8
2016: Trump+38.2

Shelley Moore Capito holds it in 2012. She runs for Senate in 2014 and Evan Jenkins replaces her. Jenkins holds it in 2016 then runs for Senate in 2018. Richard Ojeda narrowly beats Carol Miller in 2018 then loses a rematch in 2020.

[Tekken_Guy]

Gov 2014: Abbott+27.8
Sen 2014: Cornyn+38.8
Pres 2016: Trump+2.5
Gov 2018: Abbott+9.1
Lt. Gov 2018: Collier+1.1
AG 2018: Nelson+3.5
Senate 2018: O’Rourke+4
Pres 2020: Biden+4.2
Sen 2020: Cornyn+2.6

[Tekken_Guy]

Gov 2014: Abbott+27.8
Sen 2014: Cornyn+38.8
Pres 2016: Trump+2.5
Gov 2018: Abbott+9.1
Lt. Gov 2018: Collier+1.1
AG 2018: Nelson+3.5
Senate 2018: O’Rourke+4
Pres 2020: Biden+4.2
Sen 2020: Cornyn+2.6

Holds for the GOP until 2018, but could have possibly flipped back in 2020




VAP: 32% White, 33% Hispanic, 6% Black, 28% Asian

2020 President: Biden + 3.5
2012/2016 PVI: R + 3
2018 Attorney General: Bailey + 4.0
2018 Governor: Cox + 7.4
2016 President: Clinton + 1.3
2016/2020 PVI: Even

Ken Calvert would have held this up until 2018. A Democrat narrowly flips it in 2018 then loses to an Asian-American Republican in 2020.

[Tekken_Guy]

2010s seat. 80% white, 12% black

2016 Pres: Trump+0.2
2016 Sen: Portman+7.7
2018 Gov: Cordray+9.9
2018 Sen: Brown+17.8
2018 AG: Dettelbach+6
2020 Pres: Trump+4.4

[Tekken_Guy]

That seat would go Democratic the whole decade but Republicans would probably flip it in 2022.

[Tekken_Guy]

VAP: 55% White, 14% Hispanic, 23% Black, 6% Asian

2020 President: Biden + 4.2
2012/2016 PVI: R + 1
2021 Attorney General: Miyares + 6.7
2021 Governor: Youngkin + 7.9
2021 Lt. Governor: Sears + 7.1
2020 Senator: Warner + 5.7
2018 Senator Kaine + 11.0
2017 Lt. Governor: Fairfax + 0.2
2017 Governor: Northam + 2.9
2017 Attorney General: Herring + 0.9
2016 President: Clinton + 0.1

This looks like a seat Rob Wittman would have held all the way up to 2018.