Draw a district and predict how it wouid vote

[GregTheGreat657]

VAP: 55% White, 14% Hispanic, 23% Black, 6% Asian

2020 President: Biden + 4.2
2012/2016 PVI: R + 1
2021 Attorney General: Miyares + 6.7
2021 Governor: Youngkin + 7.9
2021 Lt. Governor: Sears + 7.1
2020 Senator: Warner + 5.7
2018 Senator Kaine + 11.0
2017 Lt. Governor: Fairfax + 0.2
2017 Governor: Northam + 2.9
2017 Attorney General: Herring + 0.9
2016 President: Clinton + 0.1

[Tekken_Guy]

VAP: 55% White, 14% Hispanic, 23% Black, 6% Asian

2020 President: Biden + 4.2
2012/2016 PVI: R + 1
2021 Attorney General: Miyares + 6.7
2021 Governor: Youngkin + 7.9
2021 Lt. Governor: Sears + 7.1
2020 Senator: Warner + 5.7
2018 Senator Kaine + 11.0
2017 Lt. Governor: Fairfax + 0.2
2017 Governor: Northam + 2.9
2017 Attorney General: Herring + 0.9
2016 President: Clinton + 0.1

This looks like a seat Rob Wittman would have held all the way up to 2018.

[Schiff for Senate]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/38590fe0-3187-4ba9-9e35-b2460aceaf61

I know it has a lot more people than one CD should, but nonetheless.

DEMOGRAPHICS

Voting Age Population: 55.4% Hispanic, 31.5% white, 5.5% black, 4.1% Asian, 2.5% Native American


POLITICS

ELECTION: Winner (winning party), %; Loser (losing party), % (margin; margin relative to TX as a whole)
2020 PRES: Biden (D), 49.4%; Trump (R), 49.2% (D+0.2; D+5.8 )
2020 SEN: Cornyn (R), 50.5%; Hegar (D), 46.7% (R+3.8; D+5.8 )
2018 LT GOV: Collier (D), 49.3%; Patrick (R), 48.3% (D+1.0; D+5.6)
2018 GOV: Abbott (R), 52.8%; Valdez (D), 45.5% (R+7.3; D+6.0)
2018 ATTY GEN: Nelson (D), 50.7%; Paxton (R), 46.5% (D+4.1; D+7.7)
2018 SEN: O'Rourke (D), 52.1%; Cruz (R), 47.0% (D+5.1; D+7.7)
2016 PRES: Clinton (D), 47.6%; Trump (R), 46.9% (D+0.7; D+9.7)
2014 GOV: Abbott (R), 56.8%; Davis (D), 43.2% (R+13.6; D+6.8 )
2014 SEN: Cornyn (R), 61.7%; Alameel (D), 38.3% (R+23.4; D+3.4)
2016/2020 CPVI: R+1.3
2012/2016 CPVI: R+2.8

[Schiff for Senate]

VAP: 55% White, 14% Hispanic, 23% Black, 6% Asian

2020 President: Biden + 4.2
2012/2016 PVI: R + 1
2021 Attorney General: Miyares + 6.7
2021 Governor: Youngkin + 7.9
2021 Lt. Governor: Sears + 7.1
2020 Senator: Warner + 5.7
2018 Senator Kaine + 11.0
2017 Lt. Governor: Fairfax + 0.2
2017 Governor: Northam + 2.9
2017 Attorney General: Herring + 0.9
2016 President: Clinton + 0.1

This looks like a seat Rob Wittman would have held all the way up to 2018.

This. It voted for Clinton but by just a hair so I think Wittman outperforms Trump and survives, but in the 2018 wave, he gets knocked off (and the Democrat who beats him holds on in 2020 given that Biden won by a respectable 4.2%).

[Tekken_Guy]

[img] https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FY0D1yLXwAI8n6h?format=jpg[/img

2016 Pres: Trump+5.1
2018 Gov: Whitmer+4.2
2018 AG: Leonard+1.8
2018 Sen: Stabenow+1
2020 Pres: Biden+1.5
2020 Sen: James+1.6

[GregTheGreat657]

2016 Pres: Trump+5.1
2018 Gov: Whitmer+4.2
2018 AG: Leonard+1.8
2018 Sen: Stabenow+1
2020 Pres: Biden+1.5
2020 Sen: James+1.6

Votes Republican in 2012, 2014, and 2016. Flips to the Dems in 2018, and flips back to the GOP in 2020.



VAP: 68% White, 4% Hispanic, 22% Black, 5% Asian

2020 President: Biden + 7.3
2012/2016 PVI: EVEN
2018 Senate: Baldwin + 7.1
2018 Attorney General: Schimel + 2.2
2018 Governor: Walker + 2.2
2016 President: Clinton + 4.9
2016 Senate: Johnson + 5.2
2016/2020 PVI: D + 1.6

[Roll Roons]

The Wisconsin seat would be held by a WOW Republican (Sensenbrenner?) until flipping in 2018. The Democrat holds the seat in 2020 and may have been this year's Senate nominee, making the open seat a pure tossup.

[GregTheGreat657]

VAP: 69% White, 8% Hispanic, 19% Black, 1% Asian

2020 President: Trump + 2.4
2012/2016 PVI: EVEN
2020 Senate: Curran + 0.2
2018 Attorney General: Harold + 2.0
2018 Governor: Pritzker + 2.6
2016 President: Trump + 1.3
2016 Senator: Duckworth + 4.3
2016/2020 PVI: R + 2.5

[Tekken_Guy]

VAP: 69% White, 8% Hispanic, 19% Black, 1% Asian

2020 President: Trump + 2.4
2012/2016 PVI: EVEN
2020 Senate: Curran + 0.2
2018 Attorney General: Harold + 2.0
2018 Governor: Pritzker + 2.6
2016 President: Trump + 1.3
2016 Senator: Duckworth + 4.3
2016/2020 PVI: R + 2.5

Debbie Halvorson beats Kinzinger in a 2012 rematch, then Kinzinger ousts Halvorson in 2014 and holds it for the rest of the decade. 2018 is close but he ekes it out.

For 2022 Trump recruits a primary challenger to Kinzinger (i.e. George Pearson) who easily ousts him in the primary.

[Tekken_Guy]

VAP Demographics: 66.7% White, 14.8% Asian, 13.0% Hispanic, 4.6% Black, 1.0% Native American

2012/2016 Cook PVI: R +4.0
President 2016: Trump +1.1
Governor 2017: Guadagno +7.2
Senator 2018: Hugin +6.7
2016/2020 Cook PVI: D +0.2
President 2020: Biden +7.9
Senator 2020: Booker +4.4
Composite 2012-2020: R +0.2

This is a district Rodney Frelinghuysen would have held right up until his retirement. Dems flip it in 2018 and hold it in 2020, as I can’t see a Republican not named Tom Kean overcome a Biden 7.9 margin in 2020 and Kean’s not in the district.

[GregTheGreat657]

VAP: 48% White, 7% Hispanic, 39% Black, 4% Asian

2020 President: Biden + 5.5
2012/2016 PVI: R + 2.4
2020 Senator: Bradshaw + 0.07
2018 Governor: Lee + 1.4
2018 Senator: Bredesen + 7.3
2016 President: Trump + 0.02
2016/2020 PVI: R + 0.1

[Skill and Chance]

VAP: 48% White, 7% Hispanic, 39% Black, 4% Asian

2020 President: Biden + 5.5
2012/2016 PVI: R + 2.4
2020 Senator: Bradshaw + 0.07
2018 Governor: Lee + 1.4
2018 Senator: Bredesen + 7.3
2016 President: Trump + 0.02
2016/2020 PVI: R + 0.1

Has a legacy Republican rep who will lose in the next Republican president midterm but not until then. They held on by about the same margin as Lee in 2018.

[Schiff for Senate]

IF Skill & Chance doesn't have a district to share, I'd appreciate somebody doing mine:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/38590fe0-3187-4ba9-9e35-b2460aceaf61

I know it has a lot more people than one CD should, but nonetheless.

DEMOGRAPHICS

Voting Age Population: 55.4% Hispanic, 31.5% white, 5.5% black, 4.1% Asian, 2.5% Native American


POLITICS

ELECTION: Winner (winning party), %; Loser (losing party), % (margin; margin relative to TX as a whole)
2020 PRES: Biden (D), 49.4%; Trump (R), 49.2% (D+0.2; D+5.8 )
2020 SEN: Cornyn (R), 50.5%; Hegar (D), 46.7% (R+3.8; D+5.8 )
2018 LT GOV: Collier (D), 49.3%; Patrick (R), 48.3% (D+1.0; D+5.6)
2018 GOV: Abbott (R), 52.8%; Valdez (D), 45.5% (R+7.3; D+6.0)
2018 ATTY GEN: Nelson (D), 50.7%; Paxton (R), 46.5% (D+4.1; D+7.7)
2018 SEN: O'Rourke (D), 52.1%; Cruz (R), 47.0% (D+5.1; D+7.7)
2016 PRES: Clinton (D), 47.6%; Trump (R), 46.9% (D+0.7; D+9.7)
2014 GOV: Abbott (R), 56.8%; Davis (D), 43.2% (R+13.6; D+6.8 )
2014 SEN: Cornyn (R), 61.7%; Alameel (D), 38.3% (R+23.4; D+3.4)
2016/2020 CPVI: R+1.3
2012/2016 CPVI: R+2.8

Alternatively, if Skill & Chance does in fact have a district he'd like to share, more than happy to guess on that first.

[GregTheGreat657]

IF Skill & Chance doesn't have a district to share, I'd appreciate somebody doing mine:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/38590fe0-3187-4ba9-9e35-b2460aceaf61

I know it has a lot more people than one CD should, but nonetheless.

DEMOGRAPHICS

Voting Age Population: 55.4% Hispanic, 31.5% white, 5.5% black, 4.1% Asian, 2.5% Native American


POLITICS

ELECTION: Winner (winning party), %; Loser (losing party), % (margin; margin relative to TX as a whole)
2020 PRES: Biden (D), 49.4%; Trump (R), 49.2% (D+0.2; D+5.8 )
2020 SEN: Cornyn (R), 50.5%; Hegar (D), 46.7% (R+3.8; D+5.8 )
2018 LT GOV: Collier (D), 49.3%; Patrick (R), 48.3% (D+1.0; D+5.6)
2018 GOV: Abbott (R), 52.8%; Valdez (D), 45.5% (R+7.3; D+6.0)
2018 ATTY GEN: Nelson (D), 50.7%; Paxton (R), 46.5% (D+4.1; D+7.7)
2018 SEN: O'Rourke (D), 52.1%; Cruz (R), 47.0% (D+5.1; D+7.7)
2016 PRES: Clinton (D), 47.6%; Trump (R), 46.9% (D+0.7; D+9.7)
2014 GOV: Abbott (R), 56.8%; Davis (D), 43.2% (R+13.6; D+6.8 )
2014 SEN: Cornyn (R), 61.7%; Alameel (D), 38.3% (R+23.4; D+3.4)
2016/2020 CPVI: R+1.3
2012/2016 CPVI: R+2.8

Alternatively, if Skill & Chance does in fact have a district he'd like to share, more than happy to guess on that first.

Votes Republican in every election except 2018



VAP: 70% White, 10% Hispanic, 12% Black, 7% Asian

2020 President: Biden + 3.5
2012/2016 PVI: R + 1.5
2020 Senator: Booker + 1.8
2018 Senator: Hugin + 4.3
2017 Governor: Guadagno + 4.9
2016 President: Trump + 2.6
2016/2020 PVI: R + 1.3

[Tekken_Guy]

IF Skill & Chance doesn't have a district to share, I'd appreciate somebody doing mine:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/38590fe0-3187-4ba9-9e35-b2460aceaf61

I know it has a lot more people than one CD should, but nonetheless.

DEMOGRAPHICS

Voting Age Population: 55.4% Hispanic, 31.5% white, 5.5% black, 4.1% Asian, 2.5% Native American


POLITICS

ELECTION: Winner (winning party), %; Loser (losing party), % (margin; margin relative to TX as a whole)
2020 PRES: Biden (D), 49.4%; Trump (R), 49.2% (D+0.2; D+5.8 )
2020 SEN: Cornyn (R), 50.5%; Hegar (D), 46.7% (R+3.8; D+5.8 )
2018 LT GOV: Collier (D), 49.3%; Patrick (R), 48.3% (D+1.0; D+5.6)
2018 GOV: Abbott (R), 52.8%; Valdez (D), 45.5% (R+7.3; D+6.0)
2018 ATTY GEN: Nelson (D), 50.7%; Paxton (R), 46.5% (D+4.1; D+7.7)
2018 SEN: O'Rourke (D), 52.1%; Cruz (R), 47.0% (D+5.1; D+7.7)
2016 PRES: Clinton (D), 47.6%; Trump (R), 46.9% (D+0.7; D+9.7)
2014 GOV: Abbott (R), 56.8%; Davis (D), 43.2% (R+13.6; D+6.8 )
2014 SEN: Cornyn (R), 61.7%; Alameel (D), 38.3% (R+23.4; D+3.4)
2016/2020 CPVI: R+1.3
2012/2016 CPVI: R+2.8

Alternatively, if Skill & Chance does in fact have a district he'd like to share, more than happy to guess on that first.

Votes Republican in every election except 2018



VAP: 70% White, 10% Hispanic, 12% Black, 7% Asian

2020 President: Biden + 3.5
2012/2016 PVI: R + 1.5
2020 Senator: Booker + 1.8
2018 Senator: Hugin + 4.3
2017 Governor: Guadagno + 4.9
2016 President: Trump + 2.6
2016/2020 PVI: R + 1.3

Chris Smith hold it until 2018 when he is defeated, and Josh Welle serves one term before losing to a Republican in 2020.

[GregTheGreat657]

IF Skill & Chance doesn't have a district to share, I'd appreciate somebody doing mine:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/38590fe0-3187-4ba9-9e35-b2460aceaf61

I know it has a lot more people than one CD should, but nonetheless.

DEMOGRAPHICS

Voting Age Population: 55.4% Hispanic, 31.5% white, 5.5% black, 4.1% Asian, 2.5% Native American


POLITICS

ELECTION: Winner (winning party), %; Loser (losing party), % (margin; margin relative to TX as a whole)
2020 PRES: Biden (D), 49.4%; Trump (R), 49.2% (D+0.2; D+5.8 )
2020 SEN: Cornyn (R), 50.5%; Hegar (D), 46.7% (R+3.8; D+5.8 )
2018 LT GOV: Collier (D), 49.3%; Patrick (R), 48.3% (D+1.0; D+5.6)
2018 GOV: Abbott (R), 52.8%; Valdez (D), 45.5% (R+7.3; D+6.0)
2018 ATTY GEN: Nelson (D), 50.7%; Paxton (R), 46.5% (D+4.1; D+7.7)
2018 SEN: O'Rourke (D), 52.1%; Cruz (R), 47.0% (D+5.1; D+7.7)
2016 PRES: Clinton (D), 47.6%; Trump (R), 46.9% (D+0.7; D+9.7)
2014 GOV: Abbott (R), 56.8%; Davis (D), 43.2% (R+13.6; D+6.8 )
2014 SEN: Cornyn (R), 61.7%; Alameel (D), 38.3% (R+23.4; D+3.4)
2016/2020 CPVI: R+1.3
2012/2016 CPVI: R+2.8

Alternatively, if Skill & Chance does in fact have a district he'd like to share, more than happy to guess on that first.

Votes Republican in every election except 2018



VAP: 70% White, 10% Hispanic, 12% Black, 7% Asian

2020 President: Biden + 3.5
2012/2016 PVI: R + 1.5
2020 Senator: Booker + 1.8
2018 Senator: Hugin + 4.3
2017 Governor: Guadagno + 4.9
2016 President: Trump + 2.6
2016/2020 PVI: R + 1.3

Chris Smith hold it until 2018 when he is defeated, and Josh Welle serves one term before losing to a Republican in 2020.

VAP: 58% White, 31% Hispanic, 5% Black, 3% Asian

2020 President: Biden + 2.1
2016/2020 PVI: R + 3.3
2020 Senator: Kelly + 3.8
2018 Senator: Sinema + 0.1
2018 AG: Contreras + 0.4
2018 Gov: Ducey + 13.8
2016 Senator: McCain + 8.3
2016 President: Trump + 1.3
2012/2016 PVI: R + 1.4

[Tekken_Guy]

IF Skill & Chance doesn't have a district to share, I'd appreciate somebody doing mine:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/38590fe0-3187-4ba9-9e35-b2460aceaf61

I know it has a lot more people than one CD should, but nonetheless.

DEMOGRAPHICS

Voting Age Population: 55.4% Hispanic, 31.5% white, 5.5% black, 4.1% Asian, 2.5% Native American


POLITICS

ELECTION: Winner (winning party), %; Loser (losing party), % (margin; margin relative to TX as a whole)
2020 PRES: Biden (D), 49.4%; Trump (R), 49.2% (D+0.2; D+5.8 )
2020 SEN: Cornyn (R), 50.5%; Hegar (D), 46.7% (R+3.8; D+5.8 )
2018 LT GOV: Collier (D), 49.3%; Patrick (R), 48.3% (D+1.0; D+5.6)
2018 GOV: Abbott (R), 52.8%; Valdez (D), 45.5% (R+7.3; D+6.0)
2018 ATTY GEN: Nelson (D), 50.7%; Paxton (R), 46.5% (D+4.1; D+7.7)
2018 SEN: O'Rourke (D), 52.1%; Cruz (R), 47.0% (D+5.1; D+7.7)
2016 PRES: Clinton (D), 47.6%; Trump (R), 46.9% (D+0.7; D+9.7)
2014 GOV: Abbott (R), 56.8%; Davis (D), 43.2% (R+13.6; D+6.8 )
2014 SEN: Cornyn (R), 61.7%; Alameel (D), 38.3% (R+23.4; D+3.4)
2016/2020 CPVI: R+1.3
2012/2016 CPVI: R+2.8

Alternatively, if Skill & Chance does in fact have a district he'd like to share, more than happy to guess on that first.

Votes Republican in every election except 2018



VAP: 70% White, 10% Hispanic, 12% Black, 7% Asian

2020 President: Biden + 3.5
2012/2016 PVI: R + 1.5
2020 Senator: Booker + 1.8
2018 Senator: Hugin + 4.3
2017 Governor: Guadagno + 4.9
2016 President: Trump + 2.6
2016/2020 PVI: R + 1.3

Chris Smith hold it until 2018 when he is defeated, and Josh Welle serves one term before losing to a Republican in 2020.

VAP: 58% White, 31% Hispanic, 5% Black, 3% Asian

2020 President: Biden + 2.1
2016/2020 PVI: R + 3.3
2020 Senator: Kelly + 3.8
2018 Senator: Sinema + 0.1
2018 AG: Contreras + 0.4
2018 Gov: Ducey + 13.8
2016 Senator: McCain + 8.3
2016 President: Trump + 1.3
2012/2016 PVI: R + 1.4

McSally holds it from 2012 trough 2018 when she retires to run for Senate. Kirkpatrick narrowly wins in 2018 and again in 2020. Ciscomani is favored to flip it in 2018.

[GregTheGreat657]

VAP: 54% White, 11% Hispanic, 28% Black, 6% Asian

2020 President: Biden + 2.5
2012/2016 PVI: R + 3.7
2018 AG: Moody + 4.5
2018 Gov: Gillum + 2.7
2018 Sen: Nelson + 0.06
2016 President: Trump + 2.9
2016 Sen: Rubio + 18.1
2016/2020 PVI: R + 1.7

[Tekken_Guy]

VAP: 54% White, 11% Hispanic, 28% Black, 6% Asian

2020 President: Biden + 2.5
2012/2016 PVI: R + 3.7
2018 AG: Moody + 4.5
2018 Gov: Gillum + 2.7
2018 Sen: Nelson + 0.06
2016 President: Trump + 2.9
2016 Sen: Rubio + 18.1
2016/2020 PVI: R + 1.7

R all decade but they just barely win it in 2018.

[GregTheGreat657]

VAP: 54% White, 11% Hispanic, 28% Black, 6% Asian

2020 President: Biden + 2.5
2012/2016 PVI: R + 3.7
2018 AG: Moody + 4.5
2018 Gov: Gillum + 2.7
2018 Sen: Nelson + 0.06
2016 President: Trump + 2.9
2016 Sen: Rubio + 18.1
2016/2020 PVI: R + 1.7

R all decade but they just barely win it in 2018.

2010 VAP: 62% White, 3% Hispanic, 33% Black, 1% Asian
2020 VAP: 60% White, 5% Hispanic, 32% Black, 1% Asian

2008 President: Obama + 4.2
2014 Senator: Hagan + 0.8
2016 Lt. Gov: Forest + 3.2
2016 Attorney General: Stein + 0.4
2016 Senator: Burr + 4.6
2016 Governor: McCrory + 2.8
2016 President: Trump + 3.3
2020 Auditor: Wood + 1.4
2020 Senator: Tillis + 4.2
2020 Attorney General: O’Neill + 2.8
2020 Governor: Forest + 0.4
2020 Lt. Gov: Robinson + 6.4
2020 Secretary of State: Marshall + 0.4
2020 Treasurer: Folwell + 6.4
2020 President: Trump + 4.3