Draw a district and predict how it wouid vote
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Author Topic: Draw a district and predict how it wouid vote  (Read 1248 times)
Roll Roons
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #25 on: July 20, 2022, 08:32:35 PM »



Demographics: 79% White, 7% Hispanic, 6% Black, 7% Asian

2020 President: Biden + 5.4
2012/2016 Cook PVI: R + 3.7
Composite: D + 2.9
2020 Treasurer: Garrity + 2.3
2020 Auditor: DeFoor + 4.6
2020 Attorney General: Shapiro + 0.9
2018 Senator: Casey + 10.4
2018 Governor: Wolf + 14.4
2016 President: Trump + 0.8
2016 Attorney General: Rafferty + 8.2
2016 Senator: Toomey + 10.2
2016/2020 Cook PVI: R + 0.4

Jim Gerlach holds it until retiring in 2014, when he's replaced by Ryan Costello. Costello loses to Houlahan in 2018.

Despite Biden's performance here, she goes down in 2020 in a rematch with Costello due to the fact that this district is very ancestrally GOP and much redder downballot. He'd be favored this year, but 2024 and beyond could be dicey.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #26 on: July 20, 2022, 09:15:49 PM »
« Edited: July 20, 2022, 09:23:11 PM by Tekken_Guy »



Demographics: 79% White, 7% Hispanic, 6% Black, 7% Asian

2020 President: Biden + 5.4
2012/2016 Cook PVI: R + 3.7
Composite: D + 2.9
2020 Treasurer: Garrity + 2.3
2020 Auditor: DeFoor + 4.6
2020 Attorney General: Shapiro + 0.9
2018 Senator: Casey + 10.4
2018 Governor: Wolf + 14.4
2016 President: Trump + 0.8
2016 Attorney General: Rafferty + 8.2
2016 Senator: Toomey + 10.2
2016/2020 Cook PVI: R + 0.4

Jim Gerlach holds it until retiring in 2014, when he's replaced by Ryan Costello. Costello loses to Houlahan in 2018.

Despite Biden's performance here, she goes down in 2020 in a rematch with Costello due to the fact that this district is very ancestrally GOP and much redder downballot. He'd be favored this year, but 2024 and beyond could be dicey.

A Costello rematch is honestly the only scenario in which I see Houlahan losing this district in 2020. I  had Costello retiring like he did IRL and Houlahan winning re-election against a non-Costello opponent.
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Tekken_Guy
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #27 on: July 20, 2022, 10:06:18 PM »



2010s district. This district is 81% White and 9% black

2016 Pres: Trump+5.6
2016 Gov: Koster+8.7
2016 Lt. Gov: Carnahan+6.4
2016 AG: Hawley+4.2
2016 Sen: Kander+13.4

2018 Sen: McCaskill+12.6

2020 Pres: Trump+1.3
2020 Gov: Parson+1.0
2020 LG: Kehoe+5.1
2020 AG: Schmitt+7.5
2020 SOS: Ashcroft+10.3
2020 Treas: Fitzpatrick+6.5
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GregTheGreat657
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #28 on: July 21, 2022, 09:43:07 AM »



2010s district. This district is 81% White and 9% black

2016 Pres: Trump+5.6
2016 Gov: Koster+8.7
2016 Lt. Gov: Carnahan+6.4
2016 AG: Hawley+4.2
2016 Sen: Kander+13.4

2018 Sen: McCaskill+12.6

2020 Pres: Trump+1.3
2020 Gov: Parson+1.0
2020 LG: Kehoe+5.1
2020 AG: Schmitt+7.5
2020 SOS: Ashcroft+10.3
2020 Treas: Fitzpatrick+6.5
Voted Dem in 2012, GOP in 2014 and 2016, Dem in 2018, and GOP in 2020



2010s district

Demographics (2010): 43% White, 24% Hispanic, 32% Black
Demographics (2020): 36% White, 31% Hispanic, 30% Black

President 2008: Obama + 9.8
2012/2016 Cook PVI: Even
2014 Governor: Davis + 1.8
2014 Senator: Cornyn + 3.4
2016 President: Trump + 0.7
2018 Senator: O'Rourke + 4.1
2018 Attorney General: Nelson + 4.3
2018 Governor: Abbott + 4.4
2018 Lieutenant Governor: Collier + 3.8
2020 Senator: Cornyn + 0.9
Composite: D + 0.5
2020 President: Biden + 1.5
2016/2020 PVI: R + 1.4
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Tekken_Guy
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #29 on: July 21, 2022, 09:33:53 PM »

2010s district

Demographics (2010): 43% White, 24% Hispanic, 32% Black
Demographics (2020): 36% White, 31% Hispanic, 30% Black

President 2008: Obama + 9.8
2012/2016 Cook PVI: Even
2014 Governor: Davis + 1.8
2014 Senator: Cornyn + 3.4
2016 President: Trump + 0.7
2018 Senator: O'Rourke + 4.1
2018 Attorney General: Nelson + 4.3
2018 Governor: Abbott + 4.4
2018 Lieutenant Governor: Collier + 3.8
2020 Senator: Cornyn + 0.9
Composite: D + 0.5
2020 President: Biden + 1.5
2016/2020 PVI: R + 1.4

Joe Barton holds it in 2012, 2014, 2016, then retires. A first-time Democrat wins it in 2018, then narrowly loses it to Jake Ellzey in 2020.
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GregTheGreat657
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #30 on: July 21, 2022, 11:12:06 PM »

2010s district

Demographics (2010): 43% White, 24% Hispanic, 32% Black
Demographics (2020): 36% White, 31% Hispanic, 30% Black

President 2008: Obama + 9.8
2012/2016 Cook PVI: Even
2014 Governor: Davis + 1.8
2014 Senator: Cornyn + 3.4
2016 President: Trump + 0.7
2018 Senator: O'Rourke + 4.1
2018 Attorney General: Nelson + 4.3
2018 Governor: Abbott + 4.4
2018 Lieutenant Governor: Collier + 3.8
2020 Senator: Cornyn + 0.9
Composite: D + 0.5
2020 President: Biden + 1.5
2016/2020 PVI: R + 1.4

Joe Barton holds it in 2012, 2014, 2016, then retires. A first-time Democrat wins it in 2018, then narrowly loses it to Jake Ellzey in 2020.


Demographics: 83% White, 4% Hispanic, 7% Black, 4% Asian

2020 President: Biden + 0.1
2012/2016 PVI: R + 4.4
Composite: D + 1.4
2018 Senator: Gillibrand + 8.5
2018 Governor: Molinaro + 8.9
2018 Attorney General: Wofford + 10.8
2016 President: Trump + 10.5
2016 Senator: Schumer + 28.1
2016/2020 PVI: R + 4.3
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #31 on: July 21, 2022, 11:23:35 PM »

2010s district

Demographics (2010): 43% White, 24% Hispanic, 32% Black
Demographics (2020): 36% White, 31% Hispanic, 30% Black

President 2008: Obama + 9.8
2012/2016 Cook PVI: Even
2014 Governor: Davis + 1.8
2014 Senator: Cornyn + 3.4
2016 President: Trump + 0.7
2018 Senator: O'Rourke + 4.1
2018 Attorney General: Nelson + 4.3
2018 Governor: Abbott + 4.4
2018 Lieutenant Governor: Collier + 3.8
2020 Senator: Cornyn + 0.9
Composite: D + 0.5
2020 President: Biden + 1.5
2016/2020 PVI: R + 1.4

Joe Barton holds it in 2012, 2014, 2016, then retires. A first-time Democrat wins it in 2018, then narrowly loses it to Jake Ellzey in 2020.


Demographics: 83% White, 4% Hispanic, 7% Black, 4% Asian

2020 President: Biden + 0.1
2012/2016 PVI: R + 4.4
Composite: D + 1.4
2018 Senator: Gillibrand + 8.5
2018 Governor: Molinaro + 8.9
2018 Attorney General: Wofford + 10.8
2016 President: Trump + 10.5
2016 Senator: Schumer + 28.1
2016/2020 PVI: R + 4.3

Kathy Hochul defeats Chris Collins in 2012 then loses the seat in a 2014 rematch. Collins holds it in 2016 then gets swept out in 2018 wave after his scandal comes out. 2020 is very close but I think Chris Jacobs narrowly flips it thanks to ancestral Erie Republicans.
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GregTheGreat657
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #32 on: July 22, 2022, 02:44:07 PM »

2010s district

Demographics (2010): 43% White, 24% Hispanic, 32% Black
Demographics (2020): 36% White, 31% Hispanic, 30% Black

President 2008: Obama + 9.8
2012/2016 Cook PVI: Even
2014 Governor: Davis + 1.8
2014 Senator: Cornyn + 3.4
2016 President: Trump + 0.7
2018 Senator: O'Rourke + 4.1
2018 Attorney General: Nelson + 4.3
2018 Governor: Abbott + 4.4
2018 Lieutenant Governor: Collier + 3.8
2020 Senator: Cornyn + 0.9
Composite: D + 0.5
2020 President: Biden + 1.5
2016/2020 PVI: R + 1.4

Joe Barton holds it in 2012, 2014, 2016, then retires. A first-time Democrat wins it in 2018, then narrowly loses it to Jake Ellzey in 2020.


Demographics: 83% White, 4% Hispanic, 7% Black, 4% Asian

2020 President: Biden + 0.1
2012/2016 PVI: R + 4.4
Composite: D + 1.4
2018 Senator: Gillibrand + 8.5
2018 Governor: Molinaro + 8.9
2018 Attorney General: Wofford + 10.8
2016 President: Trump + 10.5
2016 Senator: Schumer + 28.1
2016/2020 PVI: R + 4.3

Kathy Hochul defeats Chris Collins in 2012 then loses the seat in a 2014 rematch. Collins holds it in 2016 then gets swept out in 2018 wave after his scandal comes out. 2020 is very close but I think Chris Jacobs narrowly flips it thanks to ancestral Erie Republicans.


Demographics: 72% White, 13% Hispanic, 10% Black, 4% Asian

Composite: R + 0.2
2020 President: Biden + 1.5
2018 Senator: Baldwin + 8.7
2018 Governor: Walker + 1.3
2018 Attorney General: Schimel + 2.1
2016 President: Trump + 1.1
2016 Senator: Johnson + 6.7
2012/2016 PVI: R + 1.4
2016/2020 PVI: R + 1.4
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #33 on: July 22, 2022, 02:56:07 PM »

2010s district

Demographics (2010): 43% White, 24% Hispanic, 32% Black
Demographics (2020): 36% White, 31% Hispanic, 30% Black

President 2008: Obama + 9.8
2012/2016 Cook PVI: Even
2014 Governor: Davis + 1.8
2014 Senator: Cornyn + 3.4
2016 President: Trump + 0.7
2018 Senator: O'Rourke + 4.1
2018 Attorney General: Nelson + 4.3
2018 Governor: Abbott + 4.4
2018 Lieutenant Governor: Collier + 3.8
2020 Senator: Cornyn + 0.9
Composite: D + 0.5
2020 President: Biden + 1.5
2016/2020 PVI: R + 1.4

Joe Barton holds it in 2012, 2014, 2016, then retires. A first-time Democrat wins it in 2018, then narrowly loses it to Jake Ellzey in 2020.


Demographics: 83% White, 4% Hispanic, 7% Black, 4% Asian

2020 President: Biden + 0.1
2012/2016 PVI: R + 4.4
Composite: D + 1.4
2018 Senator: Gillibrand + 8.5
2018 Governor: Molinaro + 8.9
2018 Attorney General: Wofford + 10.8
2016 President: Trump + 10.5
2016 Senator: Schumer + 28.1
2016/2020 PVI: R + 4.3

Kathy Hochul defeats Chris Collins in 2012 then loses the seat in a 2014 rematch. Collins holds it in 2016 then gets swept out in 2018 wave after his scandal comes out. 2020 is very close but I think Chris Jacobs narrowly flips it thanks to ancestral Erie Republicans.


Demographics: 72% White, 13% Hispanic, 10% Black, 4% Asian

Composite: R + 0.2
2020 President: Biden + 1.5
2018 Senator: Baldwin + 8.7
2018 Governor: Walker + 1.3
2018 Attorney General: Schimel + 2.1
2016 President: Trump + 1.1
2016 Senator: Johnson + 6.7
2012/2016 PVI: R + 1.4
2016/2020 PVI: R + 1.4
'

It looks like this held for Republicans the full decade, but was very close in 2018. Neither Paul Ryan nor Bryan Steil would ever hold this seat as they're from Janesville. IRL Steil ran ahead of Walker in 2018 so if Walker carried it so did the GOP in this seat.
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Adowemiti
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« Reply #34 on: July 22, 2022, 03:06:24 PM »




VAP Demographics: 50.4% White, 34% Hispanic, 10.5% AAPI, 4% Black, 3.7% Native American
2012/2016 Cook PVI: R +3.1
President 2016: HRC +2.9
Governor 2018: Cox +0.6
At Gen 2018: Becerra +2.6
2016/2020 Cook PVI: D +1.9
President 2020: Biden +10.2
Composite 2012-2020: D +4.3
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #35 on: July 22, 2022, 03:22:33 PM »




VAP Demographics: 50.4% White, 34% Hispanic, 10.5% AAPI, 4% Black, 3.7% Native American
2012/2016 Cook PVI: R +3.1
President 2016: HRC +2.9
Governor 2018: Cox +0.6
At Gen 2018: Becerra +2.6
2016/2020 Cook PVI: D +1.9
President 2020: Biden +10.2
Composite 2012-2020: D +4.3

Darrell Issa holds the seat in 2012, 2014, and 2016.  He retires in 2018 and Mike Levin flips the seat and barely squeaks by in 2020 despite Biden winning it by 10.
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GregTheGreat657
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #36 on: July 22, 2022, 03:31:54 PM »



VAP Demographics: 50.4% White, 34% Hispanic, 10.5% AAPI, 4% Black, 3.7% Native American
2012/2016 Cook PVI: R +3.1
President 2016: HRC +2.9
Governor 2018: Cox +0.6
At Gen 2018: Becerra +2.6
2016/2020 Cook PVI: D +1.9
President 2020: Biden +10.2
Composite 2012-2020: D +4.3

Darrell Issa holds the seat in 2012, 2014, and 2016.  He retires in 2018 and Mike Levin flips the seat and barely squeaks by in 2020 despite Biden winning it by 10.


VAP: 50% White, 29% Hispanic. 13% Black, 7% Asian

2020 President: Trump + 0.2
2012/2016 PVI: R + 1.6
Composite: R + 1.9
2018 Attorney General: Moody + 8.1
2018 Governor: Gillum + 1.9
2018 Senator: Nelson + 1.2
2016 President: Clinton + 0.7
2016 Senator: Rubio + 6.8
2016/2020 PVI: R + 1.4
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #37 on: July 22, 2022, 03:41:52 PM »



VAP Demographics: 50.4% White, 34% Hispanic, 10.5% AAPI, 4% Black, 3.7% Native American
2012/2016 Cook PVI: R +3.1
President 2016: HRC +2.9
Governor 2018: Cox +0.6
At Gen 2018: Becerra +2.6
2016/2020 Cook PVI: D +1.9
President 2020: Biden +10.2
Composite 2012-2020: D +4.3

Darrell Issa holds the seat in 2012, 2014, and 2016.  He retires in 2018 and Mike Levin flips the seat and barely squeaks by in 2020 despite Biden winning it by 10.


VAP: 50% White, 29% Hispanic. 13% Black, 7% Asian

2020 President: Trump + 0.2
2012/2016 PVI: R + 1.6
Composite: R + 1.9
2018 Attorney General: Moody + 8.1
2018 Governor: Gillum + 1.9
2018 Senator: Nelson + 1.2
2016 President: Clinton + 0.7
2016 Senator: Rubio + 6.8
2016/2020 PVI: R + 1.4

Some establishment backbencher Republican holds the seat in 2012, 2014, and 2016. Then he retires and Ross Spano loses in 2018. Republicans win it back in 2020.
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GregTheGreat657
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #38 on: July 22, 2022, 10:09:14 PM »



VAP Demographics: 50.4% White, 34% Hispanic, 10.5% AAPI, 4% Black, 3.7% Native American
2012/2016 Cook PVI: R +3.1
President 2016: HRC +2.9
Governor 2018: Cox +0.6
At Gen 2018: Becerra +2.6
2016/2020 Cook PVI: D +1.9
President 2020: Biden +10.2
Composite 2012-2020: D +4.3

Darrell Issa holds the seat in 2012, 2014, and 2016.  He retires in 2018 and Mike Levin flips the seat and barely squeaks by in 2020 despite Biden winning it by 10.


VAP: 50% White, 29% Hispanic. 13% Black, 7% Asian

2020 President: Trump + 0.2
2012/2016 PVI: R + 1.6
Composite: R + 1.9
2018 Attorney General: Moody + 8.1
2018 Governor: Gillum + 1.9
2018 Senator: Nelson + 1.2
2016 President: Clinton + 0.7
2016 Senator: Rubio + 6.8
2016/2020 PVI: R + 1.4

Some establishment backbencher Republican holds the seat in 2012, 2014, and 2016. Then he retires and Ross Spano loses in 2018. Republicans win it back in 2020.


Voting Age Population: 48% White, 6% Hispanic, 43% Black, 2% Asian

2020 President: Trump + 0.9
2012/2016 PVI: R + 1.6
Composite: R + 3.7
2020 Special Senate/2021 Special Runoff: R + 1.9/Warnock + 0.6
2020 Senate/2021 Runoff: Perdue + 2.9/Ossoff + 0.4
2018 Attorney General: Carr + 3.0
2018 Governor: Kemp + 2.7
2018 Lieutenant Governor: Duncan + 5.2
2016 President: Trump + 3.1
2016 Senator: Isakson + 10.4
2016/2020 PVI: R + 2.6
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #39 on: July 22, 2022, 10:12:22 PM »



VAP Demographics: 50.4% White, 34% Hispanic, 10.5% AAPI, 4% Black, 3.7% Native American
2012/2016 Cook PVI: R +3.1
President 2016: HRC +2.9
Governor 2018: Cox +0.6
At Gen 2018: Becerra +2.6
2016/2020 Cook PVI: D +1.9
President 2020: Biden +10.2
Composite 2012-2020: D +4.3

Darrell Issa holds the seat in 2012, 2014, and 2016.  He retires in 2018 and Mike Levin flips the seat and barely squeaks by in 2020 despite Biden winning it by 10.


VAP: 50% White, 29% Hispanic. 13% Black, 7% Asian

2020 President: Trump + 0.2
2012/2016 PVI: R + 1.6
Composite: R + 1.9
2018 Attorney General: Moody + 8.1
2018 Governor: Gillum + 1.9
2018 Senator: Nelson + 1.2
2016 President: Clinton + 0.7
2016 Senator: Rubio + 6.8
2016/2020 PVI: R + 1.4

Some establishment backbencher Republican holds the seat in 2012, 2014, and 2016. Then he retires and Ross Spano loses in 2018. Republicans win it back in 2020.


Voting Age Population: 48% White, 6% Hispanic, 43% Black, 2% Asian

2020 President: Trump + 0.9
2012/2016 PVI: R + 1.6
Composite: R + 3.7
2020 Special Senate/2021 Special Runoff: R + 1.9/Warnock + 0.6
2020 Senate/2021 Runoff: Perdue + 2.9/Ossoff + 0.4
2018 Attorney General: Carr + 3.0
2018 Governor: Kemp + 2.7
2018 Lieutenant Governor: Duncan + 5.2
2016 President: Trump + 3.1
2016 Senator: Isakson + 10.4
2016/2020 PVI: R + 2.6

Sanford Bishop manages to hold that seat the entire decade though 2020 is relatively close.
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GregTheGreat657
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #40 on: July 22, 2022, 10:27:30 PM »



VAP Demographics: 50.4% White, 34% Hispanic, 10.5% AAPI, 4% Black, 3.7% Native American
2012/2016 Cook PVI: R +3.1
President 2016: HRC +2.9
Governor 2018: Cox +0.6
At Gen 2018: Becerra +2.6
2016/2020 Cook PVI: D +1.9
President 2020: Biden +10.2
Composite 2012-2020: D +4.3

Darrell Issa holds the seat in 2012, 2014, and 2016.  He retires in 2018 and Mike Levin flips the seat and barely squeaks by in 2020 despite Biden winning it by 10.


VAP: 50% White, 29% Hispanic. 13% Black, 7% Asian

2020 President: Trump + 0.2
2012/2016 PVI: R + 1.6
Composite: R + 1.9
2018 Attorney General: Moody + 8.1
2018 Governor: Gillum + 1.9
2018 Senator: Nelson + 1.2
2016 President: Clinton + 0.7
2016 Senator: Rubio + 6.8
2016/2020 PVI: R + 1.4

Some establishment backbencher Republican holds the seat in 2012, 2014, and 2016. Then he retires and Ross Spano loses in 2018. Republicans win it back in 2020.


Voting Age Population: 48% White, 6% Hispanic, 43% Black, 2% Asian

2020 President: Trump + 0.9
2012/2016 PVI: R + 1.6
Composite: R + 3.7
2020 Special Senate/2021 Special Runoff: R + 1.9/Warnock + 0.6
2020 Senate/2021 Runoff: Perdue + 2.9/Ossoff + 0.4
2018 Attorney General: Carr + 3.0
2018 Governor: Kemp + 2.7
2018 Lieutenant Governor: Duncan + 5.2
2016 President: Trump + 3.1
2016 Senator: Isakson + 10.4
2016/2020 PVI: R + 2.6

Sanford Bishop manages to hold that seat the entire decade though 2020 is relatively close.


VAP: 55% White, 24% Hispanic, 10% Black, 10% Asian

2020 President: Biden + 7.3
2012/2016 PVI: R + 6.7
Composite: D + 3.1
2020 Senate: Hegar + 3.0
2018 Lt. Governor: Collier + 4.4
2018 Governor: Abbott + 4.6
2018 Attorney General: Nelson + 6.8
2018 Senate: O'Rourke + 8.7
2016 President: Trump + 4.0
2014 Governor: Abbott + 15.6
2014 Senator: Cornyn + 24.2
2016/2020 PVI: R + 0.8
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #41 on: July 22, 2022, 10:40:18 PM »



VAP Demographics: 50.4% White, 34% Hispanic, 10.5% AAPI, 4% Black, 3.7% Native American
2012/2016 Cook PVI: R +3.1
President 2016: HRC +2.9
Governor 2018: Cox +0.6
At Gen 2018: Becerra +2.6
2016/2020 Cook PVI: D +1.9
President 2020: Biden +10.2
Composite 2012-2020: D +4.3

Darrell Issa holds the seat in 2012, 2014, and 2016.  He retires in 2018 and Mike Levin flips the seat and barely squeaks by in 2020 despite Biden winning it by 10.


VAP: 50% White, 29% Hispanic. 13% Black, 7% Asian

2020 President: Trump + 0.2
2012/2016 PVI: R + 1.6
Composite: R + 1.9
2018 Attorney General: Moody + 8.1
2018 Governor: Gillum + 1.9
2018 Senator: Nelson + 1.2
2016 President: Clinton + 0.7
2016 Senator: Rubio + 6.8
2016/2020 PVI: R + 1.4

Some establishment backbencher Republican holds the seat in 2012, 2014, and 2016. Then he retires and Ross Spano loses in 2018. Republicans win it back in 2020.


Voting Age Population: 48% White, 6% Hispanic, 43% Black, 2% Asian

2020 President: Trump + 0.9
2012/2016 PVI: R + 1.6
Composite: R + 3.7
2020 Special Senate/2021 Special Runoff: R + 1.9/Warnock + 0.6
2020 Senate/2021 Runoff: Perdue + 2.9/Ossoff + 0.4
2018 Attorney General: Carr + 3.0
2018 Governor: Kemp + 2.7
2018 Lieutenant Governor: Duncan + 5.2
2016 President: Trump + 3.1
2016 Senator: Isakson + 10.4
2016/2020 PVI: R + 2.6

Sanford Bishop manages to hold that seat the entire decade though 2020 is relatively close.


VAP: 55% White, 24% Hispanic, 10% Black, 10% Asian

2020 President: Biden + 7.3
2012/2016 PVI: R + 6.7
Composite: D + 3.1
2020 Senate: Hegar + 3.0
2018 Lt. Governor: Collier + 4.4
2018 Governor: Abbott + 4.6
2018 Attorney General: Nelson + 6.8
2018 Senate: O'Rourke + 8.7
2016 President: Trump + 4.0
2014 Governor: Abbott + 15.6
2014 Senator: Cornyn + 24.2
2016/2020 PVI: R + 0.8

John Carter holds that seat from 2012 to 2016, then loses it in 2018 to MJ Hegar. Hegar runs for Senate in 2020 and Democrats narrowly hold it.
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GregTheGreat657
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« Reply #42 on: July 23, 2022, 03:43:27 PM »



VAP Demographics: 50.4% White, 34% Hispanic, 10.5% AAPI, 4% Black, 3.7% Native American
2012/2016 Cook PVI: R +3.1
President 2016: HRC +2.9
Governor 2018: Cox +0.6
At Gen 2018: Becerra +2.6
2016/2020 Cook PVI: D +1.9
President 2020: Biden +10.2
Composite 2012-2020: D +4.3

Darrell Issa holds the seat in 2012, 2014, and 2016.  He retires in 2018 and Mike Levin flips the seat and barely squeaks by in 2020 despite Biden winning it by 10.


VAP: 50% White, 29% Hispanic. 13% Black, 7% Asian

2020 President: Trump + 0.2
2012/2016 PVI: R + 1.6
Composite: R + 1.9
2018 Attorney General: Moody + 8.1
2018 Governor: Gillum + 1.9
2018 Senator: Nelson + 1.2
2016 President: Clinton + 0.7
2016 Senator: Rubio + 6.8
2016/2020 PVI: R + 1.4

Some establishment backbencher Republican holds the seat in 2012, 2014, and 2016. Then he retires and Ross Spano loses in 2018. Republicans win it back in 2020.


Voting Age Population: 48% White, 6% Hispanic, 43% Black, 2% Asian

2020 President: Trump + 0.9
2012/2016 PVI: R + 1.6
Composite: R + 3.7
2020 Special Senate/2021 Special Runoff: R + 1.9/Warnock + 0.6
2020 Senate/2021 Runoff: Perdue + 2.9/Ossoff + 0.4
2018 Attorney General: Carr + 3.0
2018 Governor: Kemp + 2.7
2018 Lieutenant Governor: Duncan + 5.2
2016 President: Trump + 3.1
2016 Senator: Isakson + 10.4
2016/2020 PVI: R + 2.6

Sanford Bishop manages to hold that seat the entire decade though 2020 is relatively close.


VAP: 55% White, 24% Hispanic, 10% Black, 10% Asian

2020 President: Biden + 7.3
2012/2016 PVI: R + 6.7
Composite: D + 3.1
2020 Senate: Hegar + 3.0
2018 Lt. Governor: Collier + 4.4
2018 Governor: Abbott + 4.6
2018 Attorney General: Nelson + 6.8
2018 Senate: O'Rourke + 8.7
2016 President: Trump + 4.0
2014 Governor: Abbott + 15.6
2014 Senator: Cornyn + 24.2
2016/2020 PVI: R + 0.8

John Carter holds that seat from 2012 to 2016, then loses it in 2018 to MJ Hegar. Hegar runs for Senate in 2020 and Democrats narrowly hold it.


VAP: 74% White, 16% Hispanic, 2% Black, 3% Asian, 5% Native American

2020 President: Biden + 1.1
2012/2016 PVI: R + 2.4
Composite: D + 0.1
2020 Treasurer: Gudman + 1.8
2020 Attorney General: Rosenblum + 0.8
2020 Senator: Merkley + 3.4
2018 Governor: Buehler + 6.4
2016 Senator: Wyden + 11.0
2016 President: Trump + 3.7
2016 Attorney General: Rosenblum + 2.0
2016 Governor: Pierce + 8.8
2016/2020 PVI: R + 2.3
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #43 on: July 23, 2022, 04:27:15 PM »



VAP: 74% White, 16% Hispanic, 2% Black, 3% Asian, 5% Native American

2020 President: Biden + 1.1
2012/2016 PVI: R + 2.4
Composite: D + 0.1
2020 Treasurer: Gudman + 1.8
2020 Attorney General: Rosenblum + 0.8
2020 Senator: Merkley + 3.4
2018 Governor: Buehler + 6.4
2016 Senator: Wyden + 11.0
2016 President: Trump + 3.7
2016 Attorney General: Rosenblum + 2.0
2016 Governor: Pierce + 8.8
2016/2020 PVI: R + 2.3

I think this seat would have been Democratic the whole 2010s but would finally flip in 2022.
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nerd73
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Posts: 410
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Political Matrix
E: -5.29, S: -8.70

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« Reply #44 on: July 23, 2022, 07:48:36 PM »

Since Tekken didn't post a map, I'll post one (2010s seat):


2008: McCain+4.9
2012: Romney+20.8
2016: Trump+38.2
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #45 on: July 23, 2022, 08:30:30 PM »

Since Tekken didn't post a map, I'll post one (2010s seat):


2008: McCain+4.9
2012: Romney+20.8
2016: Trump+38.2

Shelley Moore Capito holds it in 2012. She runs for Senate in 2014 and Evan Jenkins replaces her. Jenkins holds it in 2016 then runs for Senate in 2018. Richard Ojeda narrowly beats Carol Miller in 2018 then loses a rematch in 2020.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #46 on: July 23, 2022, 08:44:55 PM »



Gov 2014: Abbott+27.8
Sen 2014: Cornyn+38.8
Pres 2016: Trump+2.5
Gov 2018: Abbott+9.1
Lt. Gov 2018: Collier+1.1
AG 2018: Nelson+3.5
Senate 2018: O’Rourke+4
Pres 2020: Biden+4.2
Sen 2020: Cornyn+2.6
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Ladies and Gentlemen, We Got Him Again!
GregTheGreat657
Junior Chimp
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E: 1.48, S: -0.43

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« Reply #47 on: July 23, 2022, 10:23:52 PM »



Gov 2014: Abbott+27.8
Sen 2014: Cornyn+38.8
Pres 2016: Trump+2.5
Gov 2018: Abbott+9.1
Lt. Gov 2018: Collier+1.1
AG 2018: Nelson+3.5
Senate 2018: O’Rourke+4
Pres 2020: Biden+4.2
Sen 2020: Cornyn+2.6
Holds for the GOP until 2018, but could have possibly flipped back in 2020




VAP: 32% White, 33% Hispanic, 6% Black, 28% Asian

2020 President: Biden + 3.5
2012/2016 PVI: R + 3
2018 Attorney General: Bailey + 4.0
2018 Governor: Cox + 7.4
2016 President: Clinton + 1.3
2016/2020 PVI: Even
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #48 on: July 23, 2022, 10:51:28 PM »



Gov 2014: Abbott+27.8
Sen 2014: Cornyn+38.8
Pres 2016: Trump+2.5
Gov 2018: Abbott+9.1
Lt. Gov 2018: Collier+1.1
AG 2018: Nelson+3.5
Senate 2018: O’Rourke+4
Pres 2020: Biden+4.2
Sen 2020: Cornyn+2.6
Holds for the GOP until 2018, but could have possibly flipped back in 2020




VAP: 32% White, 33% Hispanic, 6% Black, 28% Asian

2020 President: Biden + 3.5
2012/2016 PVI: R + 3
2018 Attorney General: Bailey + 4.0
2018 Governor: Cox + 7.4
2016 President: Clinton + 1.3
2016/2020 PVI: Even

Ken Calvert would have held this up until 2018. A Democrat narrowly flips it in 2018 then loses to an Asian-American Republican in 2020.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #49 on: July 23, 2022, 10:59:01 PM »



2010s seat. 80% white, 12% black

2016 Pres: Trump+0.2
2016 Sen: Portman+7.7
2018 Gov: Cordray+9.9
2018 Sen: Brown+17.8
2018 AG: Dettelbach+6
2020 Pres: Trump+4.4
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