The Canadian Prairie Provinces as US states

[King of Kensington]

How would Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba vote in US elections?

[If my soul was made of stone]

These sorts of analogies are always very scuffed since you can't really just insert one place into another's political reality, but let me hazard an analogy or two:

Alberta : Kansas (Edmonton as KC metro + Lawrence + Topeka parallel, Calgary as metro Wichita parallel, Lethbridge could be Manhattan or something idfk, inb4 pc vs wildrose vs ndp was just like muh kansas de facto three party system)
Sask : Oklahoma (this is pretty cut-and-dry, some would sooner compare AB to OK culturally and economically, not without merit, but given population distribution Muh Fundamentals in an American context I think this is a bit neater)
Manitoba : Nebraska (a dominant city/metro with a lot more going on under the hood than people give it credit for and then just, well...)

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

All 3 would be very much Safe D and politically similar to Vermont (though Manitoba would probably be a few points more Dem) if shifted into the US today. Its important to note that an areas political culture changes massively as you cross the US/Canada border. Its harder to answer what happens though if you are talking about a scenario where they were shifted decades or as much as a century and a half ago, since the political culture would have developed differently in that case.

[Skill and Chance]

All 3 would be very much Safe D and politically similar to Vermont (though Manitoba would probably be a few points more Dem) if shifted into the US today. Its important to note that an areas political culture changes massively as you cross the US/Canada border. Its harder to answer what happens though if you are talking about a scenario where they were shifted decades or as much as a century and a half ago, since the political culture would have developed differently in that case.

It's pretty clear Alberta would vote like one of the oil states if it came in after WWI or something and US levels of social conservatism were politically acceptable for generations.

Hmmm... turning to eastern Canada, if Quebec had been a US state since WWI (lol), would it have an total abortion trigger ban like Louisiana?

[TDAS04]

Hmmm... turning to eastern Canada, if Quebec had been a US state since WWI (lol), would it have an total abortion trigger ban like Louisiana?

Quebec is very pro-choice and socially liberal, even by Canadian standards.

I know you mean if Quebec was well-established as a US state, but even then I doubt it.

[Agafin]

Alberta and Saskatchewan would be safe R.

[Hatman 🍁]

Code:

All 3 would be very much Safe D and politically similar to Vermont (though Manitoba would probably be a few points more Dem) if shifted into the US today. Its important to note that an areas political culture changes massively as you cross the US/Canada border. Its harder to answer what happens though if you are talking about a scenario where they were shifted decades or as much as a century and a half ago, since the political culture would have developed differently in that case.

It's pretty clear Alberta would vote like one of the oil states if it came in after WWI or something and US levels of social conservatism were politically acceptable for generations.

Hmmm... turning to eastern Canada, if Quebec had been a US state since WWI (lol), would it have an total abortion trigger ban like Louisiana?

Depends on whether or not the Quiet Revolution happened ITTL.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Hmmm... turning to eastern Canada, if Quebec had been a US state since WWI (lol), would it have an total abortion trigger ban like Louisiana?

Quebec is very pro-choice and socially liberal, even by Canadian standards.

I know you mean if Quebec was well-established as a US state, but even then I doubt it.

Keep in mind that Quebec probably would not be admitted as a state till WW1 given the fact that the core base of both parties was anti catholic till the late 1920s given how much influence Northern WASPs had over the GOP and Southern Dixiecrats had in the Democratic Party . It really wasn’t until Al Smith that this started changing and not until FDR where the democrats had a strong northern wing as well .

So it’s hard to see Quebec admitted as a state until the 1930s really
 

[If my soul was made of stone]

All 3 would be very much Safe D and politically similar to Vermont (though Manitoba would probably be a few points more Dem) if shifted into the US today. Its important to note that an areas political culture changes massively as you cross the US/Canada border. Its harder to answer what happens though if you are talking about a scenario where they were shifted decades or as much as a century and a half ago, since the political culture would have developed differently in that case.

"Jason Kenney is just like Phil Scott" isn't exactly the sort of take I expected to hear today

[TDAS04]

Hmmm... turning to eastern Canada, if Quebec had been a US state since WWI (lol), would it have an total abortion trigger ban like Louisiana?

Quebec is very pro-choice and socially liberal, even by Canadian standards.

I know you mean if Quebec was well-established as a US state, but even then I doubt it.

Keep in mind that Quebec probably would not be admitted as a state till WW1 given the fact that the core base of both parties was anti catholic till the late 1920s given how much influence Northern WASPs had over the GOP and Southern Dixiecrats had in the Democratic Party . It really wasn’t until Al Smith that this started changing and not until FDR where the democrats had a strong northern wing as well .

So it’s hard to see Quebec admitted as a state until the 1930s really

Perhaps.  That's actually why it took so long to admit New Mexico as a state.

[King of Kensington]

CPC + PPC vote, 2021:

Alberta  62.7%
Saskatchewan  65.6% 
Manitoba  46.8%

Obviously there is some regional grievance voting going on that's unique to the Canadian situation.  Alberta plays an influential role in Canadian conservatism too but would just be a very minor player in the US.