Draw a district and predict how it wouid vote
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Author Topic: Draw a district and predict how it wouid vote  (Read 1244 times)
Tekken_Guy
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« on: July 15, 2022, 04:21:14 PM »

Here’s a fun thread. We draw hypothetical congressional districts on VRA and speculate on how they would vote in congressional elections.
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GregTheGreat657
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« Reply #1 on: July 17, 2022, 08:13:39 PM »



Demographics: 74% White, 7% Hispanic, 12% Black, 4% Asian, 3% Native American
2020 POTUS vote: R + 0.7
2012/2016 PVI: D + 1.7
Composite: D + 2.6
2020 US Senate vote: R + 0.2
2018 US Senate vote: D + 7.4
2018 Attorney General: D + 5.1
2018 Governor: D + 10.7
2016 POTUS: R + 3.1
2016/2020 PVI: R + 2.5
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #2 on: July 17, 2022, 10:11:52 PM »



Demographics: 74% White, 7% Hispanic, 12% Black, 4% Asian, 3% Native American
2020 POTUS vote: R + 0.7
2012/2016 PVI: D + 1.7
Composite: D + 2.6
2020 US Senate vote: R + 0.2
2018 US Senate vote: D + 7.4
2018 Attorney General: D + 5.1
2018 Governor: D + 10.7
2016 POTUS: R + 3.1
2016/2020 PVI: R + 2.5

For the 2010s it probably would have stayed Democratic the entire decade, though 2020 would have been very close.

For 2022 i’d say it’s more likely to stay Democratic than other districts with similar partisanship.
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GregTheGreat657
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« Reply #3 on: July 17, 2022, 10:28:41 PM »



Demographics: 74% White, 7% Hispanic, 12% Black, 4% Asian, 3% Native American
2020 POTUS vote: R + 0.7
2012/2016 PVI: D + 1.7
Composite: D + 2.6
2020 US Senate vote: R + 0.2
2018 US Senate vote: D + 7.4
2018 Attorney General: D + 5.1
2018 Governor: D + 10.7
2016 POTUS: R + 3.1
2016/2020 PVI: R + 2.5

For the 2010s it probably would have stayed Democratic the entire decade, though 2020 would have been very close.

For 2022 i’d say it’s more likely to stay Democratic than other districts with similar partisanship.
Do you want to draw a district or do you want to me to draw another one?
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #4 on: July 17, 2022, 10:43:49 PM »



60% White district north of Atlanta.

2016
-Trump+13.5
-Isakson+32.3

2018
-Kemp+9
-Duncan+12.6
-Carr+13.2

2020
-Biden+0.1
-Perdue+6.4
-Special GOP+5.3

2021
-Perdue+6.2
-Loeffler+4.2
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« Reply #5 on: July 17, 2022, 11:09:55 PM »



60% White district north of Atlanta.

2016
-Trump+13.5
-Isakson+32.3

2018
-Kemp+9
-Duncan+12.6
-Carr+13.2

2020
-Biden+0.1
-Perdue+6.4
-Special GOP+5.3

2021
-Perdue+6.2
-Loeffler+4.2

Would've stayed Republican from 2012 to 2020, even though it would be very narrow in 2020.

For the 2020s, it'd probably stay Atlas blue for 2022 unless an A-list Democratic nominee is available, and then flip in 2024.



VAP Demographics: 69% White, 12.5% Black, 9% Hispanic, 7.5% Asian, 2% Native American
2012/2016 PVI: R+4.7
2016 Presidential: R+6.3
2016 Senator: R+4.0
2018 Senator: D+5.0
2018 Governor: R+38.1
2018 At. Gen: R+0.9
2016/2020 PVI: R+2.4
2020 Presidential: D+3.3
Composite 2016-2020: R+6.3
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #6 on: July 17, 2022, 11:21:07 PM »
« Edited: July 17, 2022, 11:25:07 PM by Roll Roons »



VAP Demographics: 69% White, 12.5% Black, 9% Hispanic, 7.5% Asian, 2% Native American
2012/2016 PVI: R+4.7
2016 Presidential: R+6.3
2016 Senator: R+4.0
2018 Senator: D+5.0
2018 Governor: R+38.1
2018 At. Gen: R+0.9
2016/2020 PVI: R+2.4
2020 Presidential: D+3.3
Composite 2016-2020: R+6.3

Roscoe Bartlett would win reelection in 2012 and probably retire in 2014 due to his age.

Since it's his actual home district, Alex Mooney runs here rather than carpetbagging to WV-02. He wins easily and holds in 2016. He ends up being too conservative for the seat and narrowly loses to David Trone in 2018 despite Hogan winning here in a landslide.

In 2020, Trone defeats Neil Parrott, whose social conservatism is a poor fit for the district. Matthew Foldi beats him this year, and who knows what happens after that.
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« Reply #7 on: July 18, 2022, 02:00:19 AM »


VAP Demographics: 54% White, 23% Hispanic, 13% Black, 9% Asian, 3% Native American
2012/2016 PVI: R+8.3
2016 Presidential: R+4.8
2018 Senator: R+3.4
2018 Governor: R+12.8
2018 Lieutenant Governor: R+1.3
2018 Attorney General: D+1.5
2016/2020 PVI: R+2
2020 Presidential: D+3.1
2020 Senate: R+5.9
Composite 2016-2020: R+2.4
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #8 on: July 18, 2022, 03:21:59 AM »


VAP Demographics: 54% White, 23% Hispanic, 13% Black, 9% Asian, 3% Native American
2012/2016 PVI: R+8.3
2016 Presidential: R+4.8
2018 Senator: R+3.4
2018 Governor: R+12.8
2018 Lieutenant Governor: R+1.3
2018 Attorney General: D+1.5
2016/2020 PVI: R+2
2020 Presidential: D+3.1
2020 Senate: R+5.9
Composite 2016-2020: R+2.4

2010s: Pete Sessions narrowly holds off Colin Allred in 2018 and carpetbags to Bill Flores’ seat in 2020. Allred runs again in 2020 but loses to Genevieve Collins by around the same margin as before.

2020s (assuming IRL 2010s): The seat definitely votes R in 2022, but may or may not not hold beyond that.

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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #9 on: July 18, 2022, 03:49:41 AM »
« Edited: July 18, 2022, 03:54:23 AM by Tekken_Guy »





This is a 2010s district and it’s 66% white.

2014
-Senate: Tillis+18.3

2016
-President: Trump+12.8
-Senate: Burr+18.9
-Governor: McCrory+11.7
-Lt. Governor: Forest+22.1
-Attorney General: Newton+12.8

2020
-President: Trump+5
-Senate: Tillis+9.6
-Governor: Forest+1.3
-Lt. Governor: Robinson+10
-Secretary of State: Sykes+5.8
-Attorney General: O’Neill+6.6
-Auditor: Street+6.4
-Treasurer: Folwell+14

This should normally be a straightforward always-Republican seat. The big question is would Dan McCready have won this seat?
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GregTheGreat657
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« Reply #10 on: July 18, 2022, 09:16:06 PM »





This is a 2010s district and it’s 66% white.

2014
-Senate: Tillis+18.3

2016
-President: Trump+12.8
-Senate: Burr+18.9
-Governor: McCrory+11.7
-Lt. Governor: Forest+22.1
-Attorney General: Newton+12.8

2020
-President: Trump+5
-Senate: Tillis+9.6
-Governor: Forest+1.3
-Lt. Governor: Robinson+10
-Secretary of State: Sykes+5.8
-Attorney General: O’Neill+6.6
-Auditor: Street+6.4
-Treasurer: Folwell+14

This should normally be a straightforward always-Republican seat. The big question is would Dan McCready have won this seat?
I'd say it stays R the whole decade, with McCready coming very close in 2018, but not quite as close as what happened in real life



Demographics: 56% White, 24% Hispanic, 7% Black, 10% Asian, 4% Native American

2020 President: D + 6.4
2012/2016 Cook PVI: R + 3.9
Composite: D + 2.8
2020 Senate: D + 7.8
2018 Senate: D + 8
2018 Attorney General: R + 0.2
2018 Governor: R + 8.5
2018 Senate: R + 15.2
2016 President: R + 0.4
2016/2020 Cook PVI: Even
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« Reply #11 on: July 18, 2022, 11:24:25 PM »



Demographics: 56% White, 24% Hispanic, 7% Black, 10% Asian, 4% Native American

2020 President: D + 6.4
2012/2016 Cook PVI: R + 3.9
Composite: D + 2.8
2020 Senate: D + 7.8
2018 Senate: D + 8
2018 Attorney General: R + 0.2
2018 Governor: R + 8.5
2018 Senate: R + 15.2
2016 President: R + 0.4
2016/2020 Cook PVI: Even
The main question here is 2022. I think Greg Stanton could probably hold the line here, but if he runs elsewhere due to a more optimal district somewhere else on the map (unlikely but possible) it is probably a narrow GOP pickup. 2024 and beyond I'd expect this seat to be fairly solidly blue, if occasionally swingy.


Demographics: 49% White, 28% Hispanic, 13% Black, 9% Asian
Composite: D +3.2
2020: Biden +7.5
Sen 2020: Hegar +0.8
Gov 2018: Abbott +4.4
Sen 2018: Beto +8.3
2016: Trump +0.1
PVI: EVEN (D+0.32)
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« Reply #12 on: July 19, 2022, 12:24:48 AM »

The main question here is 2022. I think Greg Stanton could probably hold the line here, but if he runs elsewhere due to a more optimal district somewhere else on the map (unlikely but possible) it is probably a narrow GOP pickup. 2024 and beyond I'd expect this seat to be fairly solidly blue, if occasionally swingy.


Demographics: 49% White, 28% Hispanic, 13% Black, 9% Asian
Composite: D +3.2
2020: Biden +7.5
Sen 2020: Hegar +0.8
Gov 2018: Abbott +4.4
Sen 2018: Beto +8.3
2016: Trump +0.1
PVI: EVEN (D+0.32)

Michael McCaul wins in 2012, 2014, and 2016, only to be defeated by a narrow margin by Mike Siegel in 2018. Siegel wins re-election in 2020 with roughly the same percentage as two years prior. The 2022 race is between Siegel and State Rep. Mike Schofield, rated Lean D, and seen as the GOP's potential last hurrah in the district before growth in Austin and Houston results in them losing it for the decade.



VAP Demographics: 76% White, 12.5% Hispanic, 7.5% AAPI, 2% Black, 2% Native American
2012/2016 Cook PVI: R +5.3
President 2016: HRC +7.2
Senate 2016: Lee +15.7
Governor 2016: Herbert +12.0
At. Gen 2016: Reyes +17.9
Senate 2018: Romney +7.0
2016/2020 Cook PVI: D +3.4
President 2020: Biden +9.8
Governor 2020: Cox +7.3
At. Gen 2020: Skordas +1.9
Composite 2012-2020: R +5.8
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #13 on: July 19, 2022, 07:50:08 AM »

The main question here is 2022. I think Greg Stanton could probably hold the line here, but if he runs elsewhere due to a more optimal district somewhere else on the map (unlikely but possible) it is probably a narrow GOP pickup. 2024 and beyond I'd expect this seat to be fairly solidly blue, if occasionally swingy.


Demographics: 49% White, 28% Hispanic, 13% Black, 9% Asian
Composite: D +3.2
2020: Biden +7.5
Sen 2020: Hegar +0.8
Gov 2018: Abbott +4.4
Sen 2018: Beto +8.3
2016: Trump +0.1
PVI: EVEN (D+0.32)

Michael McCaul wins in 2012, 2014, and 2016, only to be defeated by a narrow margin by Mike Siegel in 2018. Siegel wins re-election in 2020 with roughly the same percentage as two years prior. The 2022 race is between Siegel and State Rep. Mike Schofield, rated Lean D, and seen as the GOP's potential last hurrah in the district before growth in Austin and Houston results in them losing it for the decade.



VAP Demographics: 76% White, 12.5% Hispanic, 7.5% AAPI, 2% Black, 2% Native American
2012/2016 Cook PVI: R +5.3
President 2016: HRC +7.2
Senate 2016: Lee +15.7
Governor 2016: Herbert +12.0
At. Gen 2016: Reyes +17.9
Senate 2018: Romney +7.0
2016/2020 Cook PVI: D +3.4
President 2020: Biden +9.8
Governor 2020: Cox +7.3
At. Gen 2020: Skordas +1.9
Composite 2012-2020: R +5.8

Jim Matheson easily wins in 2012 before retiring in 2014. Republicans narrowly hold the seat for two terms (Mia Love doesn’t live here so it may not be with her) before losing it to Ben McAdams. R’s largely don’t seriously contest the seat in 2020 and Burgess Owens is mostly a sacrificial lamb. But they are serious about winning it back in 2022 with a stronger R.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #14 on: July 19, 2022, 11:06:26 AM »



62% White, 14% Hispanic, 17% Black, 6% Asian

2016 Pres: Trump+8
2018 Gov: Lee+3
2018 Sen: Bredesen+9
2020 Pres: Biden+0.9
2020 Sen: Hagerty+6
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GregTheGreat657
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« Reply #15 on: July 19, 2022, 06:43:23 PM »



62% White, 14% Hispanic, 17% Black, 6% Asian

2016 Pres: Trump+8
2018 Gov: Lee+3
2018 Sen: Bredesen+9
2020 Pres: Biden+0.9
2020 Sen: Hagerty+6
Probably R for the whole decade, though there would be a not-so-insignificant chance that the Democrat flipped the seat in 2018, but if that happened, it would have flipped back to the GOP if the nominee were a generic R or were stronger than the generic R.



Demographics: 34% White, 34% Hispanic, 25% Black, 6% Asian, 2% Native American
2020 Vote: Trump + 0.5
2012/2016 PVI: R + 2.4
Composite: R + 1.7
2020 Senate: Cornyn + 3.1
2018 Lieutenant Governor: Collier + 0.2
2018 Governor: Abbott + 7.1
2018 Attorney General: Nelson + 1.8
2018 US Senator: O'Rourke + 1.2
2016 President: Trump + 1.8
2014 Governor: Abbott + 5.4
2014 Senate: Cornyn + 10.8
2016/2020 PVI: R + 2.1
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #16 on: July 19, 2022, 07:14:26 PM »



62% White, 14% Hispanic, 17% Black, 6% Asian

2016 Pres: Trump+8
2018 Gov: Lee+3
2018 Sen: Bredesen+9
2020 Pres: Biden+0.9
2020 Sen: Hagerty+6
Probably R for the whole decade, though there would be a not-so-insignificant chance that the Democrat flipped the seat in 2018, but if that happened, it would have flipped back to the GOP if the nominee were a generic R or were stronger than the generic R.



Demographics: 34% White, 34% Hispanic, 25% Black, 6% Asian, 2% Native American
2020 Vote: Trump + 0.5
2012/2016 PVI: R + 2.4
Composite: R + 1.7
2020 Senate: Cornyn + 3.1
2018 Lieutenant Governor: Collier + 0.2
2018 Governor: Abbott + 7.1
2018 Attorney General: Nelson + 1.8
2018 US Senator: O'Rourke + 1.2
2016 President: Trump + 1.8
2014 Governor: Abbott + 5.4
2014 Senate: Cornyn + 10.8
2016/2020 PVI: R + 2.1

Consistently narrow yet consistenly Republican. 2018 was probably the Democratic high mark there and the R wins by less than a point.



This is a 2010s district. It was 71% white in 2010 but is down to 66% white.

President 2016: Trump+7.2
Governor 2017: Gillespie+5.2
Lt. Governor 2018: Vogel+8.3
Attorney General 2018: Adams+8.3
Senator 2018: Kaine+4.7
President 2020: Biden+0.6
Senator 2020: Warner+1.3


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« Reply #17 on: July 19, 2022, 07:38:31 PM »

Cantor in 2012, Brat in 2014 and 2016, Spanberger in 2018 and 2020.
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GregTheGreat657
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« Reply #18 on: July 19, 2022, 08:51:55 PM »



62% White, 14% Hispanic, 17% Black, 6% Asian

2016 Pres: Trump+8
2018 Gov: Lee+3
2018 Sen: Bredesen+9
2020 Pres: Biden+0.9
2020 Sen: Hagerty+6
Probably R for the whole decade, though there would be a not-so-insignificant chance that the Democrat flipped the seat in 2018, but if that happened, it would have flipped back to the GOP if the nominee were a generic R or were stronger than the generic R.



Demographics: 34% White, 34% Hispanic, 25% Black, 6% Asian, 2% Native American
2020 Vote: Trump + 0.5
2012/2016 PVI: R + 2.4
Composite: R + 1.7
2020 Senate: Cornyn + 3.1
2018 Lieutenant Governor: Collier + 0.2
2018 Governor: Abbott + 7.1
2018 Attorney General: Nelson + 1.8
2018 US Senator: O'Rourke + 1.2
2016 President: Trump + 1.8
2014 Governor: Abbott + 5.4
2014 Senate: Cornyn + 10.8
2016/2020 PVI: R + 2.1

Consistently narrow yet consistenly Republican. 2018 was probably the Democratic high mark there and the R wins by less than a point.



This is a 2010s district. It was 71% white in 2010 but is down to 66% white.

President 2016: Trump+7.2
Governor 2017: Gillespie+5.2
Lt. Governor 2018: Vogel+8.3
Attorney General 2018: Adams+8.3
Senator 2018: Kaine+4.7
President 2020: Biden+0.6
Senator 2020: Warner+1.3



Since Solid didn't post a district, here is one



Demographics: 78% White, 5% Hispanic, 6% Black, 8% Asian

2020 President: Biden + 4.4
2012/2016 PVI: R + 2.4
2020 Senate: Smith + 1.6
2018 Senate: Klobuchar + 19.6
2018 Senate Special: Smith + 3.6
2018 Governor: Walz + 5
2018 Attorney General: Wardlow + 3.6
2016 President: Trump + 2.3
2014 Senator: Franken + 0.8
2014 Attorney General: Swanson + 8.7
2014 Governor: Johnson + 3.3
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Solid4096
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« Reply #19 on: July 19, 2022, 09:36:32 PM »

Probably Rep in 2012, 2014, and 2016, then Dem in 2018 and 2020, though hard to say who.



2010s District

Trump + 9.8 in 2020, Trump + 15.5 in 2016.
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« Reply #20 on: July 19, 2022, 10:14:12 PM »

Probably Rep in 2012, 2014, and 2016, then Dem in 2018 and 2020, though hard to say who.



2010s District

Trump + 9.8 in 2020, Trump + 15.5 in 2016.

This is very similar to Tim Holden's old district, before he was drawn into the weird squid creature with the NEPA metros and primaried by Cartwright, so perhaps he could hold on here as long as his home country's frozen pierogi-eaters would have before souring on him because Muh Trends or until a Harrisburg upstart had their way with him.
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GregTheGreat657
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« Reply #21 on: July 19, 2022, 10:24:28 PM »

Probably Rep in 2012, 2014, and 2016, then Dem in 2018 and 2020, though hard to say who.



2010s District

Trump + 9.8 in 2020, Trump + 15.5 in 2016.
Holds for Republicans the whole decade, though it comes within 5 in 2018.



Demographics: 79% White, 3% Hispanic, 13% Black, 4% Asian

2020 President: Biden + 0.2
2012/2016 PVI: D + 0.5
Composite: D + 1.5
2018 Attorney General: Dettelbach + 6
2018 Senate: Brown + 13.8
2018 Governor: Cordray + 5.2
2016 Senate: Portman + 12.9
2016 President: Trump + 0.2
2016/2020 PVI: R + 1.5
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« Reply #22 on: July 19, 2022, 10:42:41 PM »

Probably Rep in 2012, 2014, and 2016, then Dem in 2018 and 2020, though hard to say who.



2010s District

Trump + 9.8 in 2020, Trump + 15.5 in 2016.
Holds for Republicans the whole decade, though it comes within 5 in 2018.



Demographics: 79% White, 3% Hispanic, 13% Black, 4% Asian

2020 President: Biden + 0.2
2012/2016 PVI: D + 0.5
Composite: D + 1.5
2018 Attorney General: Dettelbach + 6
2018 Senate: Brown + 13.8
2018 Governor: Cordray + 5.2
2016 Senate: Portman + 12.9
2016 President: Trump + 0.2
2016/2020 PVI: R + 1.5

Tim Ryan holds the seat from 2012 to 2020, even though it proves extremely close in 2020. The 2022 race is between Dan Horrigan and Madison Gesiotto Gilbert, and rated Likely R.



VAP Demographics: 50.5% White, 39% Black, 5.5% Hispanic, 3% Asian, 2% Native American
2012/2016 Cook PVI: D +1.5
President 2016: HRC +5.1
Senate 2016: Isakson +4.5
Governor 2018: Abrams +7.2
2016/2020 Cook PVI: D +1.9
President 2020: Biden +8.4
Senate 2021: Ossoff +9.2
Senate Sp. 2021: Warnock +9.6
Composite 2012-2020: D +5.2
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« Reply #23 on: July 20, 2022, 09:14:29 AM »

Probably Rep in 2012, 2014, and 2016, then Dem in 2018 and 2020, though hard to say who.



2010s District

Trump + 9.8 in 2020, Trump + 15.5 in 2016.
Holds for Republicans the whole decade, though it comes within 5 in 2018.



Demographics: 79% White, 3% Hispanic, 13% Black, 4% Asian

2020 President: Biden + 0.2
2012/2016 PVI: D + 0.5
Composite: D + 1.5
2018 Attorney General: Dettelbach + 6
2018 Senate: Brown + 13.8
2018 Governor: Cordray + 5.2
2016 Senate: Portman + 12.9
2016 President: Trump + 0.2
2016/2020 PVI: R + 1.5

Tim Ryan holds the seat from 2012 to 2020, even though it proves extremely close in 2020. The 2022 race is between Dan Horrigan and Madison Gesiotto Gilbert, and rated Likely R.



VAP Demographics: 50.5% White, 39% Black, 5.5% Hispanic, 3% Asian, 2% Native American
2012/2016 Cook PVI: D +1.5
President 2016: HRC +5.1
Senate 2016: Isakson +4.5
Governor 2018: Abrams +7.2
2016/2020 Cook PVI: D +1.9
President 2020: Biden +8.4
Senate 2021: Ossoff +9.2
Senate Sp. 2021: Warnock +9.6
Composite 2012-2020: D +5.2


This district probably elects John Barrow through 2016 then he runs for SOS in 2018. Dems still hold it in 2018 and 2020.



A 2010s district. 52% white, 19% Asian, 18% Hispanic, and 11% black by 2020

Pres 2016: Trump+4.5
Sen 2016: Heck+4.3
Gov 2018: Sisolak+0.6
LG 2018: Marshall+1.2
AG 2018: Duncan+3.5
Sen 2018: Rosen+0.9
Pres 2020: Trump+2.9


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Ladies and Gentlemen, We Got Him Again!
GregTheGreat657
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,098
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.48, S: -0.43

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« Reply #24 on: July 20, 2022, 08:26:52 PM »

Probably Rep in 2012, 2014, and 2016, then Dem in 2018 and 2020, though hard to say who.



2010s District

Trump + 9.8 in 2020, Trump + 15.5 in 2016.
Holds for Republicans the whole decade, though it comes within 5 in 2018.



Demographics: 79% White, 3% Hispanic, 13% Black, 4% Asian

2020 President: Biden + 0.2
2012/2016 PVI: D + 0.5
Composite: D + 1.5
2018 Attorney General: Dettelbach + 6
2018 Senate: Brown + 13.8
2018 Governor: Cordray + 5.2
2016 Senate: Portman + 12.9
2016 President: Trump + 0.2
2016/2020 PVI: R + 1.5

Tim Ryan holds the seat from 2012 to 2020, even though it proves extremely close in 2020. The 2022 race is between Dan Horrigan and Madison Gesiotto Gilbert, and rated Likely R.



VAP Demographics: 50.5% White, 39% Black, 5.5% Hispanic, 3% Asian, 2% Native American
2012/2016 Cook PVI: D +1.5
President 2016: HRC +5.1
Senate 2016: Isakson +4.5
Governor 2018: Abrams +7.2
2016/2020 Cook PVI: D +1.9
President 2020: Biden +8.4
Senate 2021: Ossoff +9.2
Senate Sp. 2021: Warnock +9.6
Composite 2012-2020: D +5.2


This district probably elects John Barrow through 2016 then he runs for SOS in 2018. Dems still hold it in 2018 and 2020.



A 2010s district. 52% white, 19% Asian, 18% Hispanic, and 11% black by 2020

Pres 2016: Trump+4.5
Sen 2016: Heck+4.3
Gov 2018: Sisolak+0.6
LG 2018: Marshall+1.2
AG 2018: Duncan+3.5
Sen 2018: Rosen+0.9
Pres 2020: Trump+2.9



Holds for Republicans the whole decade, though in 2018, the Republican only wins by a tilt margin



Demographics: 79% White, 7% Hispanic, 6% Black, 7% Asian

2020 President: Biden + 5.4
2012/2016 Cook PVI: R + 3.7
Composite: D + 2.9
2020 Treasurer: Garrity + 2.3
2020 Auditor: DeFoor + 4.6
2020 Attorney General: Shapiro + 0.9
2018 Senator: Casey + 10.4
2018 Governor: Wolf + 14.4
2016 President: Trump + 0.8
2016 Attorney General: Rafferty + 8.2
2016 Senator: Toomey + 10.2
2016/2020 Cook PVI: R + 0.4
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