When will Texas turn blue
Agonized-Statism:
Quote from: MABA 2020 on July 15, 2022, 03:23:13 AM
Conceivably 2028 under a big Democratic victory, don't think thats very likely though
This is where I'm leaning. My current thinking is that 2028 will probably be the fallout of a second Trump administration with a more articulate and inspiring Democrat like Ruben Gallego at the helm, so it would almost be a fluke. But absent that, Texas becomes a swing state- never totally blue, Republicans would probably change their platform before conceding that many electoral votes- later on in the 2030s.
OSR stands with Israel:
Quote from: Pericles on July 15, 2022, 05:12:34 AM
It is only slightly to the right of where Georgia was in 2016, and Democrats still have a lot of room to gain and more than Republicans. 2024 could be winnable, especially with something like a 2008-style victory, not that there is an easy path to that right now. Otherwise, 2028 would be realistic, though my guess is that election would be a Republican victory because either Republicans would only have had one term or have the classic opposition party advantage after two Democratic terms.
GA was +7 R in 2016 while TX is +10 R in 2020, and also the shifts in GA vs Texas are very different.
Here:
https://twitter.com/stphnfwlr/status/1388453436648210437var scriptTag = document.getElementsByTagName('script');scriptTag = scriptTag[scriptTag.length-1];atlas_tweetCheckLoad(scriptTag.parentNode, "tw_0_6744156671845035721", "tw_2_1095558279334400383", "https://twitter.com/stphnfwlr/status/1388453436648210437");
Cobb County :
2012: Romney 55.25%
2020: Trump 42.02%
Forsyth County:
2012: Romney 80.47%
2020: Trump 65.83%
Gwinnett County:
2012: Romney 53.76%
2020: Trump 40.16%
Henry County:
2012: Romney 51.1%
2020: Trump 39.24%
S019:
I’ll say 2028
President Punxsutawney Phil:
Quote from: Old School Republican on July 15, 2022, 01:54:26 PM
Quote from: Pericles on July 15, 2022, 05:12:34 AM
It is only slightly to the right of where Georgia was in 2016, and Democrats still have a lot of room to gain and more than Republicans. 2024 could be winnable, especially with something like a 2008-style victory, not that there is an easy path to that right now. Otherwise, 2028 would be realistic, though my guess is that election would be a Republican victory because either Republicans would only have had one term or have the classic opposition party advantage after two Democratic terms.
GA was +7 R in 2016 while TX is +10 R in 2020, and also the shifts in GA vs Texas are very different.
Here:
https://twitter.com/stphnfwlr/status/1388453436648210437var scriptTag = document.getElementsByTagName('script');scriptTag = scriptTag[scriptTag.length-1];atlas_tweetCheckLoad(scriptTag.parentNode, "tw_0_1950327061162433813", "tw_2_171337804573722405", "https://twitter.com/stphnfwlr/status/1388453436648210437");
Cobb County :
2012: Romney 55.25%
2020: Trump 42.02%
Forsyth County:
2012: Romney 80.47%
2020: Trump 65.83%
Gwinnett County:
2012: Romney 53.76%
2020: Trump 40.16%
Henry County:
2012: Romney 51.1%
2020: Trump 39.24%
Are Asians counted as "Other/Unknown" here? Because Forsyth County has a sizable Asian population, attracted in part due to the perceived quality of the area's public schools.
OSR stands with Israel:
Quote from: Southern Delegate and Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil on July 15, 2022, 01:56:37 PM
Quote from: Old School Republican on July 15, 2022, 01:54:26 PM
Quote from: Pericles on July 15, 2022, 05:12:34 AM
It is only slightly to the right of where Georgia was in 2016, and Democrats still have a lot of room to gain and more than Republicans. 2024 could be winnable, especially with something like a 2008-style victory, not that there is an easy path to that right now. Otherwise, 2028 would be realistic, though my guess is that election would be a Republican victory because either Republicans would only have had one term or have the classic opposition party advantage after two Democratic terms.
GA was +7 R in 2016 while TX is +10 R in 2020, and also the shifts in GA vs Texas are very different.
Here:
https://twitter.com/stphnfwlr/status/1388453436648210437var scriptTag = document.getElementsByTagName('script');scriptTag = scriptTag[scriptTag.length-1];atlas_tweetCheckLoad(scriptTag.parentNode, "tw_0_593947550326768407", "tw_2_895653702810635898", "https://twitter.com/stphnfwlr/status/1388453436648210437");
Cobb County :
2012: Romney 55.25%
2020: Trump 42.02%
Forsyth County:
2012: Romney 80.47%
2020: Trump 65.83%
Gwinnett County:
2012: Romney 53.76%
2020: Trump 40.16%
Henry County:
2012: Romney 51.1%
2020: Trump 39.24%
Are Asians counted as "Other/Unknown" here? Because Forsyth County has a sizable Asian population, attracted in part due to the perceived quality of the area's public schools.
Not sure but the point is a huge reason GA is flipping is due to "reverse Great migration" while Hispanic voters in Texas are moving right not left so demographic changes dont help Democrats in TX like GA as much
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