MI-GOV (Detroit News/WIDV-TV): Whitmer +9 to +15

[wbrocks67]

Whitmer (D) 50%
Kelley (R) 41%

Whitmer (D) 51%
Dixon (R) 40%

Whitmer (D) 52%
Rinke (R) 40%

Whitmer (D) 52%
Soldano (R) 38%

Whitmer (D) 52%
Rebandt (R) 37%

Whitmer approval: 55/40
Biden approval: 38/57

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2022/07/13/whitmers-leads-over-michigan-gop-rivals-raising-doubts-red-wave-poll-finds/10035203002/

[wbrocks67]

Also of note, this same pollster only had her approval at +2 (48-46) back in September 2021.

[SnowLabrador]

Why didn't they poll her against Kelley? FiveThirtyEight thinks Kelley will be her opponent.

[Pollster]

What's important here is that Whitmer is stable at her share of the vote against all potential opponents - a good sign for her though she's still teetering in the danger zone of the margin of error.

[wbrocks67]

Why didn't they poll her against Kelley? FiveThirtyEight thinks Kelley will be her opponent.

sorry my bad - they did. it got messed up when i copied and pasted.

it's back now, she leads him by 9

[wbrocks67]

Why attacks on Biden and trying to link the two (in this race and others) also may fail:

Among independent voters, 32% approved of Biden's job performance, but 61% approved of Whitmer's.

People are not necessarily associating how they feel about Biden with state level Democrats.

[Person Man]

Maybe Whitmer is going to be OK or maybe Michigan is snapping back the way Florida and potentially Nevada are. It would be crazy if we are back to the 2004 map by the end of the decade with maybe the exceptions of Iowa, Virginia, Florida, Georgia, and Colorado.

[TodayJunior]

This is yet another reason why Biden should step down. If he doesn’t, I could see a scenario where states could split ticket POTUS/senate race/house races to put a check on trump or DeSantis should either of them win.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Great news, Biden at 33% and D's are winning key races

[Person Man]

This is yet another reason why Biden should step down. If he doesn’t, I could see a scenario where states could split ticket POTUS/senate race/house races to put a check on trump or DeSantis should either of them win.

It would be an interesting scenario to see if Republicans only net 1 or 2 governors' seats if any at all even if they gain to 2 or 3 senate seats and 25-30 house seats only for them to gain maybe one senate seat and lose 10-15 House seats in 2024, even if TrumpSantis wins the NPV and 30+ states.

[Sir Mohamed]

Possible the GOP blew a race that might have been winnable? And the 54.8% Fivethirtyeight projects aren't that much off? I think it will be closer than that, Whitmer is still undeniably favored.

These Biden approvals are horrible, even in states with other Dems being way above water. It doesn't mean all too much for 2024; Trump was deeply underwater here, too, and still came damn close. Still worrisome though.

[Xing]

Whitmer is in better shape than she would’ve been had Craig made the ballot, but I definitely don’t buy her being up by this much.

[jamestroll]

I am looking to the takes about Michigan being more dem than Virginia due to the gubernatorial elections.

I also expect people to unironically believe that VA will vote to the right of Michigan in 2024.

I also expect people will believe Macomb County will vote dem and Loudoun will vote gop in 2024.

Only for Michigan to be a struggle on election night 2024 for the Democrats and Virginia to vote Dem by a clear but narrow margin.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am looking to the takes about Michigan being more dem than Virginia due to the gubernatorial elections.

I also expect people to unironically believe that VA will vote to the right of Michigan in 2024.

I also expect people will believe Macomb County will vote dem and Loudoun will vote gop in 2024.

Only for Michigan to be a struggle on election night 2024 for the Democrats and Virginia to vote Dem by a clear but narrow margin.

Kaine is on the ballot in 24 the Rs aren't winning PA with Casey or VA with Kaine in 24 forget it

[President Johnson]

Wow, this looks rocksolid. Not sure Whitmer will be by double digits, but I'd change my rating: Lean Democratic -> Likely Democratic.

And for god's sake, Biden needs to get his act together when it comes to showing more leadership and sell his agenda. C'mon, man.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Wow, this looks rocksolid. Not sure Whitmer will be by double digits, but I'd change my rating: Lean Democratic -> Likely Democratic.

And for god's sake, Biden needs to get his act together when it comes to showing more leadership and sell his agenda. C'mon, man.

It's not about blue states he has a 5o percent approval it's about red states where the Ukraine war is having an effect most red States except for HI and DC and VA have the army navy there including TX, NC and OH has the Marines in OH st University Biden has a 33 percent Approval in NC and TX but Beasley, Demings and Beto are only down 3/5 pts

[Make America Grumpy Again]

I hope GOP voters in that state won't choose someone who's in prison. That would make an otherwise Lean D contest nearly safe D.

[kwabbit]

Whitmer is in better shape than she would’ve been had Craig made the ballot, but I definitely don’t buy her being up by this much.

Kelley or Dixon's position will improve as the election draws closer, but right now I can see them being down by 10. They aren't great candidates, given that they were on track to get like 6% before Craig was disqualified. They're going to have some stink as accidental nominees for a while.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Whitmer is in better shape than she would’ve been had Craig made the ballot, but I definitely don’t buy her being up by this much.

Polling is so inaccurate now in order to determine who is favored (if it's against the national environment) is that the Dem is A) over 50% and B) up by at least 6-8%. Whitmer is hitting all these marks.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Whitmer has a higher % chance of winning than Kotek imo

[President Johnson]

Whitmer has a higher % chance of winning than Kotek imo

If the election was held today, yeah, that makes sense.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tina Kotek is gonna win OR, CO , WA  have all VBM and Kotek with Ron Wyden on the ballot will win but the reason why Kotek is slightly behind is due to Kate Brown, BEWARE RS OF PROVISION BALLOTS LIKE LAST TIME THEY ARE UNDER 30 YRS IN BETWEEN RESIDENCE GOING FROM COLLEGE AND HOME I WAS AN EDAY JUDGE BEFORE OBVIOUSLY THE PANDEMIC 300K statewide and there will be Provisional ballots in OR for sure

Anyways it's a 303 map solidify the S, the red states can be won by D's and we will be score board watching anyways that's why I have them D, as wave insurance for the H

My map don't have to be accurate anyways our votes and donations solidify the accuracy
 D users that have R nut maps thinks their prediction has to accurate

[Suburban Republican]

Whitmer has a higher % chance of winning than Kotek imo

This is what I've been saying for the past few months! This race is still a tossup, but there's no factor other than partisan lean that would suggest this race is any more favorable republicans than the one in Oregon.

[Alben Barkley]

Will be quite something if the GOP nominating absolute clowns as candidates costs them both extremely winnable gubernatorial races and possibly the Senate.

Also quite something how there continues to be a huge disconnect between Biden’s abysmal approvals and the numbers for other Democrats in poll after poll. I don’t recall it being the same with Trump and the GOP in 2018.

[wbrocks67]

Will be quite something if the GOP nominating absolute clowns as candidates costs them both extremely winnable gubernatorial races and possibly the Senate.

Also quite something how there continues to be a huge disconnect between Biden’s abysmal approvals and the numbers for other Democrats in poll after poll. I don’t recall it being the same with Trump and the GOP in 2018.

We've been discussing this at length - it's just two different elections. Trumps approval in 2018 (45% per exits) was essentially a proxy for R support that year, so yes, last midterm it was interchangeable. But that was mostly because his base stuck with him, so the layout of approval was pretty close to identical for R support that year.

Meanwhile, this year, you have way more Ds or D-leaning folks who will say they disapprove of Biden (way more than Rs did for Trump) who will still vote D down the ballot. It's why Biden's approvals are so low and Trumps werent at this point - Trumps base stuck with him throughout almost everything. Bidens base meanwhile is way more okay with saying what they don't like. (but what they don't like even worse is Rs who they are still not voting for)