How will the Democratic Party look by 2032?
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September 30, 2022, 10:10:48 AM
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  How will the Democratic Party look by 2032?
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Author Topic: How will the Democratic Party look by 2032?  (Read 2283 times)
Sea-Spit
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« on: August 02, 2022, 12:35:49 PM »

Will they be more Progressive? Or, will they stick to their Moderate Liberalism? What regions of the country will they be popular in? What policies do you think they'll be pushing? Who will be part of the new establishment of the party?
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #1 on: August 02, 2022, 04:21:28 PM »

I went too far with my european thread the other week, but I do think they will be more conservative on sexual issues.
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DS0816
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« Reply #2 on: August 03, 2022, 01:13:25 PM »

Will they be more Progressive? Or, will they stick to their Moderate Liberalism? What regions of the country will they be popular in? What policies do you think they'll be pushing? Who will be part of the new establishment of the party?

They will continue as they are now—a scam operation.
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laddicus finch
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« Reply #3 on: August 03, 2022, 01:33:22 PM »

I went too far with my european thread the other week, but I do think they will be more conservative on sexual issues.

Why is that? Not necessarily disagreeing, I just hadn't heard that perspective before.
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Vosem
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« Reply #4 on: August 03, 2022, 09:25:57 PM »

The decline of trust in government will mean that some of their policies, like raising taxes or general fiscal progressivism, will be less emphasized. They will probably lean in to popular secular beliefs, particularly on abortion and perhaps also on LGBT issues; more speculatively, on drug legalization and perhaps sex-work associated issues. Since they will be trying to keep support from people with high social trust, one exception to the general decline in economic leftism will be continued strong support for unions (though this may not be super relevant), and also the most classic cross-cultural high-trust party positioning: becoming the party of the military. (2032 may be kind of early for this -- although maybe not -- but I really do expect Democrats to maintain relevance by going in a militaristic and interventionist angle over the next few decades.)
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #5 on: August 06, 2022, 11:51:23 AM »
« Edited: August 06, 2022, 12:23:17 PM by Skill and Chance »

The decline of trust in government will mean that some of their policies, like raising taxes or general fiscal progressivism, will be less emphasized. They will probably lean in to popular secular beliefs, particularly on abortion and perhaps also on LGBT issues; more speculatively, on drug legalization and perhaps sex-work associated issues. Since they will be trying to keep support from people with high social trust, one exception to the general decline in economic leftism will be continued strong support for unions (though this may not be super relevant), and also the most classic cross-cultural high-trust party positioning: becoming the party of the military. (2032 may be kind of early for this -- although maybe not -- but I really do expect Democrats to maintain relevance by going in a militaristic and interventionist angle over the next few decades.)

Do Republicans go (relatively) to the left on economics in this scenario?  Like paid maternity leave laws passing in red states?  Maybe some flirting with UBI in declining manufacturing areas?  There are now some elected R's making "the corporations are out to get you" a significant part of their platform, which is new.  A significant factor in this would be that their base demographic is transitioning from peak earning years to retirement, which would make supporting Medicare and Social Security at current benefits levels or higher seem pretty darn important.

That, plus what you are saying about Democrats all seemed likely to me back in 2016-17, but then Republicans strongly took the libertarian position on COVID and Biden ran as more of a traditional New Deal Dem on economics than Clinton and improved pretty dramatically with seniors.  On the other hand, COVID will (God willing) be completely irrelevant in elections held 10 years from now.  Abortion will cut the other way though and could give Dems another chance with libertarians.

Another significant factor will be whether we eventually see a grand bargain on climate change.   Republicans are about to be completely dependent on Florida to win presidential elections after all.
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Atomic-Statism
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« Reply #6 on: August 06, 2022, 12:10:11 PM »

A somewhat bigger tent with both more conservative and progressive candidates slugging it out, but the generic Democrat of 2032 is probably an all-around statist. They would want a more regulated market economy, more green public works, more police, more military.
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ShadowRocket
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« Reply #7 on: August 12, 2022, 09:34:28 PM »

Elizabeth Warren I think is probably a good personification of what it'll look like ideologically.  More progressive than Biden but not as far to the left as Sanders.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #8 on: August 12, 2022, 10:33:05 PM »

Elizabeth Warren I think is probably a good personification of what it'll look like ideologically.  More progressive than Biden but not as far to the left as Sanders.

At one time I thought this, but she has been so remarkably ineffective vs. 2016 era expectations.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #9 on: August 13, 2022, 03:39:09 AM »

The Democratic Party could become the Establishment Party. The two Presidents with the most lasting influence on the Parties over the last fifty years are Reagan and Obama. Republicans took Reagan's lead into a dark side of economic elitism and vulgar populism, a path whose contradictions should be self-evident and whose consequences could be self-destructive (just look at what Trump did). Obama has a more liberal agenda on social values and economic results with more support for some of the classic values of conservatism. Obama recognizes the value of tradition in behavior and precedent, honors the natural hierarchy of vocational competence, and puts a high value on personal integrity.

Obama has fewer contradictions. He honors tradition, yet he recognizes no single tradition as the definitive one to impose upon the rest of us. They are equally valid, and none of them is to lord it over the rest of us.

Contradictions do not sort themselves out easily and naturally unless nearly trivial. I have shown patterns in which Obama victories look much like wins by Republican politicians in the past. It will be far easier for the Establishment to congeal around Obama-like practices if not his 2008 agenda. He may not be so much a prophet as a portent.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #10 on: August 13, 2022, 08:29:32 AM »

Obama  victories in 2008 and 2012 looked more like Eisenhower victories than like those of any Democratic nominee since Ike until Biden in 2020. To be sure, demographics have changed some states, and blacks are no longer effectively prevented from voting in what was "Kukluxistan". Coal and ore miners used to be a large and reliable constituency for Democrats in such states as Kentucky, Missouri, and West Virginia; they are no longer so large a constituency.

 When all is said and done, I think that the Obama and Eisenhower Presidencies are going to look like good analogues. Both Presidents are chilly rationalists. Both are practically scandal-free administrations. Both started with a troublesome war that both found their way out of. Neither did much to 'grow' the strength of their Parties in either House of Congress. To compare ISIS to Fidel Castro is completely unfair to Fidel Castro, a gentleman by contrast to ISIS.

The definitive moderate Republican may have been Dwight Eisenhower, and I have heard plenty of Democrats praise the Eisenhower Presidency. He went along with Supreme Court rulings that outlawed segregationist practices, stayed clear of the McCarthy bandwagon, and let McCarthy implode.


 
gray -- did not vote in 1952 or 1956
white -- Eisenhower twice, Obama twice
deep blue -- Republican all four elections
light blue -- Republican all but 2012 (I assume that greater Omaha went for Ike twice)
light green -- Eisenhower once, Stevenson once, Obama never
dark green -- Stevenson twice, Obama never
pink -- Stevenson twice, Obama once

No state voted Democratic all four times, so no state is in deep red.

Do you not believe me? Jimmy Carter's one narrow win depended upon getting all but one of the former Secessionist states. Obama won lots of Ford states.


Carter 1976, Obama 2008/2012    



Carter 1976, Obama twice  red
Carter 1976, Obama once pink
Carter 1976, Obama never yellow
Ford 1976, Obama twice white
Ford 1976, Obama once light blue
Ford 1976, Obama never blue

It's amazing that an Obama victory in 2008 looked more like the Taft victory of a century earlier:

 100 years apart, overlay between William Howard Taft and Barack Obama, 1908/2008.

Taft (R) 51.6/321 - Bryan (D) 43.0/162 - Debs (S) 2.8/0
Obama (D) 52.9/365- McCain (R) 45.6/173

Similar percentages of the electoral vote for the winners.



Taft/ McCain blue
Taft/Obama yellow
Bryan/Obama red
Bryan/McCain green

Bryan won all of the former secessionist states, Colorado, Kentucky, Oklahoma, Nebraska, and Nevada.  Bryan won seven states by 9% or less; Taft won six states by 9% or less.  Other states were blow-outs.

Clearly different in 1908 from a century later: Alaska, Arizona, Dee Cee,  Hawaii, and New Mexico weren't voting. There was no television or even radio in 1908. Above all, several Southern states did not have free and fair elections (blacks were effectively barred from voting).

Now what if the polarization is on the side of the winner?

FDR (D) 53.4/432 - Dewey (R) 45.9/99  
Obama (D) 52.9/365- McCain (R) 45.6/173

Arizona and New Mexico were voting this time; radio (but not TV) was very much a part of American life. America was well unified in a war going very well in 1944.  Alaska and Hawaii, let alone the District of Columbia, would not vote in 1944. Several states in the South still had no free elections.



FDR/Obama
FDR/McCain
Dewey/McCain
Dewey/Obama

FDR lost only four states by 14% or more, and only three by 5% to 9% (none between 9% to 14%).  His other losses were by 5% or less. He won the other 41 states at the time. Nine were by 5% or less, and another five by 5% to 9%. He won the 22 others by 9% or more.

It is enough to know that Barack Obama won enough states to win with the tipping-point state as Iowa, which he won by 9.54%. He had Reagan-like margins in his wins but Mondale-like losses in many states that he lost. Obama lost fourteen states by 14% or more.

America was terribly rifted in 2008. The 1944 election is a ratification of the successes of one of the most effective Presidents ever. People may disagree on who the greatest, second-greatest, and third-greatest Presidents were, but in some order those are Washington, Lincoln, and FDR. The 2008 election followed a President whose sole success was in getting re-elected.
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Person Man
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« Reply #11 on: August 29, 2022, 02:46:00 PM »

The decline of trust in government will mean that some of their policies, like raising taxes or general fiscal progressivism, will be less emphasized. They will probably lean in to popular secular beliefs, particularly on abortion and perhaps also on LGBT issues; more speculatively, on drug legalization and perhaps sex-work associated issues. Since they will be trying to keep support from people with high social trust, one exception to the general decline in economic leftism will be continued strong support for unions (though this may not be super relevant), and also the most classic cross-cultural high-trust party positioning: becoming the party of the military. (2032 may be kind of early for this -- although maybe not -- but I really do expect Democrats to maintain relevance by going in a militaristic and interventionist angle over the next few decades.)

So I'll probably never become a Republican.
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Person Man
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« Reply #12 on: August 29, 2022, 02:54:20 PM »

The decline of trust in government will mean that some of their policies, like raising taxes or general fiscal progressivism, will be less emphasized. They will probably lean in to popular secular beliefs, particularly on abortion and perhaps also on LGBT issues; more speculatively, on drug legalization and perhaps sex-work associated issues. Since they will be trying to keep support from people with high social trust, one exception to the general decline in economic leftism will be continued strong support for unions (though this may not be super relevant), and also the most classic cross-cultural high-trust party positioning: becoming the party of the military. (2032 may be kind of early for this -- although maybe not -- but I really do expect Democrats to maintain relevance by going in a militaristic and interventionist angle over the next few decades.)

Do Republicans go (relatively) to the left on economics in this scenario?  Like paid maternity leave laws passing in red states?  Maybe some flirting with UBI in declining manufacturing areas?  There are now some elected R's making "the corporations are out to get you" a significant part of their platform, which is new.  A significant factor in this would be that their base demographic is transitioning from peak earning years to retirement, which would make supporting Medicare and Social Security at current benefits levels or higher seem pretty darn important.

That, plus what you are saying about Democrats all seemed likely to me back in 2016-17, but then Republicans strongly took the libertarian position on COVID and Biden ran as more of a traditional New Deal Dem on economics than Clinton and improved pretty dramatically with seniors.  On the other hand, COVID will (God willing) be completely irrelevant in elections held 10 years from now.  Abortion will cut the other way though and could give Dems another chance with libertarians.

Another significant factor will be whether we eventually see a grand bargain on climate change.   Republicans are about to be completely dependent on Florida to win presidential elections after all.

That last thing you said is very interesting and important and generally why people think Dennis is a "moderate", or at least that he was one at first. Climate Change. Whether this comes to past heavily depends on whether practical needs will win out. Sometimes they do very predictably, other times the don't.

But yeah. It will be interesting to see as Democrats try to court more libertarians on social issues and neocons on foreign policy and Republicans keep trying to poach the poor and near poor from the Democrats.

It also feels like economic issues will be much less polarized in another 20 years (especially with the parties coming together on things like heightening the tax base, infrastructure, some industrial regulation/policy, and some sort of welfare state), but social issues and foreign policy could be huge.
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compson
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« Reply #13 on: August 29, 2022, 11:03:46 PM »

Most analysts with expertise tend to underrate the staying power of trends, instead trying to identify the elusive turning point. The Democrats are most likely to continue drifting left, particularly on social issues, while failing electorally once Trump has left the scene (particularly in the Senate). They are still extremely vulnerable to defections among non-liberal hispanics, blacks, and the remaining regional bastions of elevated non-college white support. It will probably require the pain of many lost elections before the Democrats reverse course.
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Central Lake
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« Reply #14 on: August 31, 2022, 06:49:52 PM »



I think regardless if they win or lose the Republican party will trend/become more like J.D Vance, Blake Masters and not go towards McCain, Paul Ryan, Cheney positioning. So I agree with Democrats poaching libertarians on social issues and neocons on foreign policy.

In terms of the Republican party I think it will be socially and culturally conservative and slightly to the left in economics. Further predications but this may be wish casting on my part is that:
GOP will have Tulsi Gabbard/Rand Paul views on foreign policy
Like Hunguary/Poland on family policy
and similar to the Ford brothers of Toronto in approach to minority and immigrant voters
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Central Lake
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« Reply #15 on: August 31, 2022, 06:56:58 PM »

Most analysts with expertise tend to underrate the staying power of trends, instead trying to identify the elusive turning point. The Democrats are most likely to continue drifting left, particularly on social issues, while failing electorally once Trump has left the scene (particularly in the Senate). They are still extremely vulnerable to defections among non-liberal hispanics, blacks, and the remaining regional bastions of elevated non-college white support. It will probably require the pain of many lost elections before the Democrats reverse course.

While I don't think Democrats are screwed I do agree that in the current alignment Dems are likely to experience defections electorally in the short and medium term.
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Kamala’s side hoe
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« Reply #16 on: August 31, 2022, 08:05:10 PM »
« Edited: September 19, 2022, 06:14:45 PM by MR. MAXWELL ALEJANDRO FROST »

More Asian, Latino, mixed-race, and probably also more Mormon than it is today.

Also likely more technocratic and willing to pay lip service to electoral reforms without pushing open primaries.
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Thoughty2
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« Reply #17 on: September 01, 2022, 10:39:57 AM »

I think the Dems slowly become the pro-establishment, pro-law enforcement, pro-patriotism party as R's further become the anti-government, anti-establishment, burn sh!t down party. We are seeing the seedlings of this transformation after 1/6 and the FBI raid, even though R's are still LARPing as pro-law enforcement patriots as of yet.

It will almost come full circle from the 1960s, when R's were seen as the suit-wearing respecters of institutions while D's were seen as anti-government hippies who wanted to tear institutions down.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #18 on: September 02, 2022, 12:12:09 AM »

The decline of trust in government will mean that some of their policies, like raising taxes or general fiscal progressivism, will be less emphasized. They will probably lean in to popular secular beliefs, particularly on abortion and perhaps also on LGBT issues; more speculatively, on drug legalization and perhaps sex-work associated issues. Since they will be trying to keep support from people with high social trust, one exception to the general decline in economic leftism will be continued strong support for unions (though this may not be super relevant), and also the most classic cross-cultural high-trust party positioning: becoming the party of the military. (2032 may be kind of early for this -- although maybe not -- but I really do expect Democrats to maintain relevance by going in a militaristic and interventionist angle over the next few decades.)

Do Republicans go (relatively) to the left on economics in this scenario?  Like paid maternity leave laws passing in red states?  Maybe some flirting with UBI in declining manufacturing areas?  There are now some elected R's making "the corporations are out to get you" a significant part of their platform, which is new.  A significant factor in this would be that their base demographic is transitioning from peak earning years to retirement, which would make supporting Medicare and Social Security at current benefits levels or higher seem pretty darn important.

That, plus what you are saying about Democrats all seemed likely to me back in 2016-17, but then Republicans strongly took the libertarian position on COVID and Biden ran as more of a traditional New Deal Dem on economics than Clinton and improved pretty dramatically with seniors.  On the other hand, COVID will (God willing) be completely irrelevant in elections held 10 years from now.  Abortion will cut the other way though and could give Dems another chance with libertarians.

Another significant factor will be whether we eventually see a grand bargain on climate change.   Republicans are about to be completely dependent on Florida to win presidential elections after all.

That last thing you said is very interesting and important and generally why people think Dennis is a "moderate", or at least that he was one at first. Climate Change. Whether this comes to past heavily depends on whether practical needs will win out. Sometimes they do very predictably, other times the don't.

But yeah. It will be interesting to see as Democrats try to court more libertarians on social issues and neocons on foreign policy and Republicans keep trying to poach the poor and near poor from the Democrats.

It also feels like economic issues will be much less polarized in another 20 years (especially with the parties coming together on things like heightening the tax base, infrastructure, some industrial regulation/policy, and some sort of welfare state), but social issues and foreign policy could be huge.

Business Republicans being able to drag Trump to a libertarian position on COVID after the first few weeks and Dems taking the hawkish position in response really threw me for a loop given that older voters should rationally value protective measures more and stay-at-home parents should rationally be the most tolerant of long term school closures.  That and the inflation made things snap back a bit.  However, that looks more and more like an aberration and I think things are getting back on 2018 trend now.

Do you mean DeSantis?  A string of Republican nominees not being from drilling states since Bush and Palin probably helps on the climate compromise front. 
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Reactionary Libertarian
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« Reply #19 on: September 05, 2022, 02:25:07 PM »

Free trade party
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MABA 2020
MakeAmericaBritishAgain
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« Reply #20 on: September 05, 2022, 05:23:46 PM »

They won't be able to go too far left because of the structural problems they face. In general I have a really hard time envisioning American politics in a decade as I'm not sure how the US gets past the Republicans antidemocratic turn.
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