One thing I’ve noticed with demographic projections is that it often understates demographic change (whether we’re talking about ethnographic change in the US, the decline in world fertility rates, etc).
Gradually China’s population fall starting point has been pushed forward and forward. Now it’s already starting 8 years ahead of schedule.
Interesting to see India’s gradual fall to replacement fertility rates and below.
I could see big bureaucracies like the United Nations' Population Division being overly cautious in their projections. Are you saying other demographic projections are similar as well?
Got bored and looked up a few countries and their 50% median estimates for 2100:
China: ~1.4 billion to ~770 million
India: ~1.4 billion to ~1.5 billion
United States: ~340 million to ~390 million
Indonesia: ~275 million to ~297 million
Pakistan: ~220 million to ~485 million
Nigeria: ~205 million to ~550 million
Ethiopia: ~115 million to ~325 million
Russia: ~142 million to ~112 million (higher than I thought)
Germany: ~83 million to ~68 million
France: ~64 million to ~61 million
Italy: ~59 million to ~36 million
United Kingdom: ~66 million to $70 million
Japan: ~125 million to ~73 million
South Korea: ~52 million to ~ 24 million
Indonesia: ~275 million to ~300 million
Philippines: ~110 million to ~180 million
Vietnam: ~98 million to ~90 million
Thailand: ~72 million to ~45 million
Predicted top 24 countries by population in 2100. Bet you can't guess #25:
#25 is
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Cote d'Ivoire at 89 million
This, if true, would be a huge humanitarian concern. The economy of China, Japan and South Korea likely collapse with such hyper senior population. Nigeria, Pakistan, etc, won't be able to support their population.
