World Population Prospects 2022 Thread - China's population has peaked

[Biden his time]

Discussion of the United Nations World Population Prospects 2022.

The United Nations' World Population Prospects is a biennially-updated database where key demographic indicators are estimated and projected down to the country level.

This year's WPP database was delayed for some time due to the COVID-19 pandemic and other numerous factors, including upgrading the database to include projections for every single year on demographic indicators and age statistics (rather than the five-year bins previously used). Not only this, but population estimates are not only being made for July 1, but also January 1 of each year.

https://population.un.org/wpp2022-embargoed

[Biden his time]

The world's population as of July 1, 2021 has been revised upwards to 7.91 Billion (which is up from the 7.88 Billion projected by the United Nations three years ago). The main reasons for this are upward revisions in the following countries:


India - Where the population has been revised upwards by 14.2 million due to lower-than-expected levels of mortality from 2014 to 2019 and the inclusion of the Indian-administered regions of Jammu & Kashmir.

Pakistan - Where the population has been revised upwards by 6.2 million due to a reassessment of previous censuses to include Azad Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan, along with an upward revision in Total Fertility Rate due to a younger-than-expected age structure found in the 2017 census.

Egypt - Where the population has been revised upwards by 5.0 million due to a reassessment of previous censuses and a lower-than-expected amount of outmigration from the country over the previous years.

United States of America - Where the population has been revised upwards by 4.1 million due to the incorporation of the results of the 2020 United States census, causing upward revisions in the amount of in-migration over the last few years.

Democratic Republic of the Congo - Where the population has been revised upwards by 3.5 million due to upward revisions in fertility levels of the country. Whereas previously the country's Total Fertility Rate had been expected to be 6.09 in 2017, a recently released MICS survey showed the Fertility Rate actually was 6.21, somewhat higher than the projection.

Bangladesh - Where the population has been revised upwards by 3.1 million due to a downward revision in out-migration over the last few years.

Syria - Where the population has been revised upwards by 3.0 million due to increased estimates of in-migration over the last few years, as refugees from the Syrian Civil War return to their home country.

The populations of these countries also were revised upwards by at least one million: Iran, The Philippines, Yemen, Ethiopia, Iraq, Tanzania, Nigeria, Thailand, Ghana, Mali

[Biden his time]

On the flipside, certain countries have had their populations revised downwards,

China - This is almost certainly the biggest difference between this revision and the previous revision of the World Population Prospects, since the country's population has been revised downwards by 18.3 million based on the results of the 2020 Chinese Census and the availability of new data coming in from the vital registration system of China, showing a massive drop in fertility rates seen over the last few years (the Chinese TFR was projected at 1.16 in 2021!).

China's population has already peaked and began shrinking earlier this year (something previously expected to happen in 2031) and India's population will surpass China's early next year in 2023 (previously expected to occur in 2027). With a rapidly rising median age, the ramifications of a shrinking China will be massive on the world's economy. Since I believe this is the most important and interesting change made, I included it in the title.

Mexico - The one other country to have its population revised downwards this revision significantly, by 3.6 million people. This is due to the incorporation of the 2020 Mexican census and recent data showing a massive drop in fertility rates in the country (to a projected 1.82 in 2021 and possibly lower if recent data are to be believed). The Mexican population, previously expected to start shrinking in 2062, now is projected to peak in 2052.

The populations of these countries also were revised downwards by at least one million: Indonesia, Kenya, Japan, Serbia (due to the separation of Kosovo in UN statistics), Uganda, Lebanon, Italy, Myanmar

[Biden his time]

The biggest problems for China and India right now are growing old before they grow rich.

Interesting estimates by expert demographer of the University of Wisconsin Yi Fuxian suggest that China's population is subject to demographic manipulation, with fertility rates being much lower than the official numbers being reported to the United Nations and the population truly having started shrinking in 2018.

He makes a compelling case for his argument here ->

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/china-2020-census-inflates-population-figures-downplays-demographic-challenge-by-yi-fuxian-2021-08

Moreover, he also has shared the results of a leaked 2020 Chinese census database showing that China's true numbers are heavily manipulated, which you all can read about here

https://mobile.twitter.com/fuxianyi/status/1545668143816839170