Missouri 2008
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Plankton5165
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« on: July 09, 2022, 11:05:01 AM »

Are you surprised that it went to John McCain?

It had voted for the winner in every election from 1904 to 2004 (except 1956), and Obama was leading in the polls!
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TML
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1 on: August 15, 2022, 01:05:41 AM »

Not really, when you look at how it was trending from 1996 onwards.
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💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)
peenie_weenie
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« Reply #2 on: August 15, 2022, 10:51:43 AM »

Not really, when you look at how it was trending from 1996 onwards.

Also worth mentioning that McCain won by about 1/8 of one percent.

I think what's more interesting is that southern Missouri (and southern Kansas) didn't trend against the Democrats the same way that Oklahoma, Arkansas, and northern Texas did. Arkansas is an outlier in this era in politics for obvious reasons and Oklahoma is demographically distinct but this is still pretty fascinating, especially given how quickly D strength in Missouri continued to decline after 2008.


(2004-2008 swing)
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Chillary
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« Reply #3 on: August 15, 2022, 12:07:59 PM »

I'm not surprised McCain won it, but I am surprised he won it despite losing Indiana.
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HAnnA MArin County
semocrat08
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« Reply #4 on: August 15, 2022, 12:20:42 PM »

Democrats were still competitive in my state in 2008. I truly believe that Hillary would have carried it had she clinched the Democratic nomination that year. Unfortunately, racism was probably at play to explain why John McCain eked out the squeaker here. Look at the three counties in the Bootheel that swung hard right to him (Dunklin, New Madrid, and Pemiscot). These are some of the blackest and poorest counties in the state. Hillary clobbered Obama in these counties in the primary (Dunklin was her best county statewide in 2008). Had these counties swung left the way that other surrounding counties in Southeast Missouri did, Obama might have prevailed.

In Southeast Missouri (where I live), Democrats controlled tons of local offices around this time. Fast forward to today and now they're all virtually controlled by the GQP. Iron County in the Missouri Lead Belt region did vote for Obama in 2008, yet in 2020 it voted to the right of Cape Girardeau County, the home county of Rush Limbaugh. In fact, many of the rural counties in this area of the state are now voting to the right of Cape Girardeau County, which I'm pretty sure is probably just national trends setting in with the growing urban-rural divide. The city of Cape Girardeau isn't really urban (population just under 40,000) but it's the largest city between St. Louis and Memphis going on Interstate 55. We have a four-year university here that continues to expand every year it seems. 

Arkansas swinging ~10 points to McCain in 2008 was probably due to PUMAism. I can't think of any other reason why the state would have swung that hard to the right in what was a dynamite year for Democrats nationally. Of the five states (Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Tennessee, West Virginia) that swung right in 2008, Hillary won all but one (Louisiana) during the primaries, and all but one of these states (Oklahoma) voted for her husband twice. I don't think Arkansas was entirely gone for Democrats in 2008 and Hillary might have carried it too. It was, after all, her best state during the 2008 primaries.

I'm not sure about Oklahoma either but if I remember correctly, I think I recall seeing some polls that had Hillary within single digits of McCain in the Sooner State. Democrats were not *as* endangered species there as they are now. 
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VPH
vivaportugalhabs
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« Reply #5 on: August 15, 2022, 03:30:49 PM »

An underrated point about Missouri in 2008: Obama did really quite well in the suburbs. Only lost Platte by 6.43% in 2008, lost Clay by 0.69%, won St. Louis County by 19.9%, won 41% in Greene County MO, and kept the margin under 10% in St. Charles.
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #6 on: August 15, 2022, 05:49:49 PM »

Yes.

Very much.
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Spectator
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« Reply #7 on: August 16, 2022, 08:26:03 AM »

Not really, when you look at how it was trending from 1996 onwards.

Also worth mentioning that McCain won by about 1/8 of one percent.

I think what's more interesting is that southern Missouri (and southern Kansas) didn't trend against the Democrats the same way that Oklahoma, Arkansas, and northern Texas did. Arkansas is an outlier in this era in politics for obvious reasons and Oklahoma is demographically distinct but this is still pretty fascinating, especially given how quickly D strength in Missouri continued to decline after 2008.


(2004-2008 swing)

I wonder if we’ll ever get an election like that where most states had every county swing one way
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If my soul was made of stone
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« Reply #8 on: September 29, 2022, 10:43:01 AM »

An underrated point about Missouri in 2008: Obama did really quite well in the suburbs. Only lost Platte by 6.43% in 2008, lost Clay by 0.69%, won St. Louis County by 19.9%, won 41% in Greene County MO, and kept the margin under 10% in St. Charles.

Considering that Gore had won Clay in '00 (albeit literally by a single vote), this sounds a fair bit less impressive. I wouldn't be surprised if part of it was a function of suburbanization as an ongoing process, but there was nonetheless a contingent that he couldn't quite claw back, alongside or in similar form to the Lead Belt or Bootheel or non-Columbia Little Dixie (where the Democratic vote would soon crater for various reasons, some–like continued deindustrialization in the Lead Belt–more directly related to the administration's policy than others).
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #9 on: September 29, 2022, 12:20:28 PM »

Democrats were still competitive in my state in 2008. I truly believe that Hillary would have carried it had she clinched the Democratic nomination that year. Unfortunately, racism was probably at play to explain why John McCain eked out the squeaker here. Look at the three counties in the Bootheel that swung hard right to him (Dunklin, New Madrid, and Pemiscot). These are some of the blackest and poorest counties in the state. Hillary clobbered Obama in these counties in the primary (Dunklin was her best county statewide in 2008). Had these counties swung left the way that other surrounding counties in Southeast Missouri did, Obama might have prevailed.

In Southeast Missouri (where I live), Democrats controlled tons of local offices around this time. Fast forward to today and now they're all virtually controlled by the GQP. Iron County in the Missouri Lead Belt region did vote for Obama in 2008, yet in 2020 it voted to the right of Cape Girardeau County, the home county of Rush Limbaugh. In fact, many of the rural counties in this area of the state are now voting to the right of Cape Girardeau County, which I'm pretty sure is probably just national trends setting in with the growing urban-rural divide. The city of Cape Girardeau isn't really urban (population just under 40,000) but it's the largest city between St. Louis and Memphis going on Interstate 55. We have a four-year university here that continues to expand every year it seems. 

Arkansas swinging ~10 points to McCain in 2008 was probably due to PUMAism. I can't think of any other reason why the state would have swung that hard to the right in what was a dynamite year for Democrats nationally. Of the five states (Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Tennessee, West Virginia) that swung right in 2008, Hillary won all but one (Louisiana) during the primaries, and all but one of these states (Oklahoma) voted for her husband twice. I don't think Arkansas was entirely gone for Democrats in 2008 and Hillary might have carried it too. It was, after all, her best state during the 2008 primaries.

I'm not sure about Oklahoma either but if I remember correctly, I think I recall seeing some polls that had Hillary within single digits of McCain in the Sooner State. Democrats were not *as* endangered species there as they are now. 

https://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportEmail.aspx?g=5148f8f2-7339-4f15-aa04-8611f661d1a7

Quote
Giuliani 47 Clinton 44
Thompson 50 Clinton 44
Clinton 47 Romney 44

Giuliani 54 Obama 33
Thompson 55 Obama 35
Romney 46 Obama 40

Edwards 49 Giuliani 40
Edwards 47 Thompson 41
Edwards 53 Romney 32

McCain was not surveyed in this particular poll
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TimeUnit2027
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« Reply #10 on: February 10, 2023, 12:06:21 PM »

How Edwards is stronger than both Obama and Hillary?
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VPH
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« Reply #11 on: February 10, 2023, 09:20:38 PM »

How Edwards is stronger than both Obama and Hillary?

Before his scandal, Edwards had this strong folksy southern populist appeal (expensive haircuts notwithstanding). I see how it might have resonated in Missouri, WV, etc.
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