Missouri 2008
Plankton5165:
Are you surprised that it went to John McCain?
It had voted for the winner in every election from 1904 to 2004 (except 1956), and Obama was leading in the polls!
TML:
Not really, when you look at how it was trending from 1996 onwards.
💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his):
Quote from: TML on August 15, 2022, 01:05:41 AM
Not really, when you look at how it was trending from 1996 onwards.
Also worth mentioning that McCain won by about 1/8 of one percent.
I think what's more interesting is that southern Missouri (and southern Kansas) didn't trend against the Democrats the same way that Oklahoma, Arkansas, and northern Texas did. Arkansas is an outlier in this era in politics for obvious reasons and Oklahoma is demographically distinct but this is still pretty fascinating, especially given how quickly D strength in Missouri continued to decline after 2008.
(2004-2008 swing)
Chillary:
I'm not surprised McCain won it, but I am surprised he won it despite losing Indiana.
HAnnA MArin County:
Democrats were still competitive in my state in 2008. I truly believe that Hillary would have carried it had she clinched the Democratic nomination that year. Unfortunately, racism was probably at play to explain why John McCain eked out the squeaker here. Look at the three counties in the Bootheel that swung hard right to him (Dunklin, New Madrid, and Pemiscot). These are some of the blackest and poorest counties in the state. Hillary clobbered Obama in these counties in the primary (Dunklin was her best county statewide in 2008). Had these counties swung left the way that other surrounding counties in Southeast Missouri did, Obama might have prevailed.
In Southeast Missouri (where I live), Democrats controlled tons of local offices around this time. Fast forward to today and now they're all virtually controlled by the GQP. Iron County in the Missouri Lead Belt region did vote for Obama in 2008, yet in 2020 it voted to the right of Cape Girardeau County, the home county of Rush Limbaugh. In fact, many of the rural counties in this area of the state are now voting to the right of Cape Girardeau County, which I'm pretty sure is probably just national trends setting in with the growing urban-rural divide. The city of Cape Girardeau isn't really urban (population just under 40,000) but it's the largest city between St. Louis and Memphis going on Interstate 55. We have a four-year university here that continues to expand every year it seems.
Arkansas swinging ~10 points to McCain in 2008 was probably due to PUMAism. I can't think of any other reason why the state would have swung that hard to the right in what was a dynamite year for Democrats nationally. Of the five states (Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Tennessee, West Virginia) that swung right in 2008, Hillary won all but one (Louisiana) during the primaries, and all but one of these states (Oklahoma) voted for her husband twice. I don't think Arkansas was entirely gone for Democrats in 2008 and Hillary might have carried it too. It was, after all, her best state during the 2008 primaries.
I'm not sure about Oklahoma either but if I remember correctly, I think I recall seeing some polls that had Hillary within single digits of McCain in the Sooner State. Democrats were not *as* endangered species there as they are now.
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