Conservative Party of the UK Leadership Election, 2022

[Torrain]

Truss in - as an explicitly anti-Sunak candidate. The op-ed she's launching her campaign with is behind a Mail+ registration paywall, which is a choice.
https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1545816963099803648

[TheTide]

Zahawi in.

[Alcibiades]

Endorsements spreadsheet - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ffqemZ-YOi7AvAw8HbxmMd0vIbsOXLZ7KpAmNQPD2r8/htmlview#gid=0

Sunak leads the pack and his endorsements look pretty varied. Braverman is actually in second, surprisingly entirely male and mostly elderly.

Some interesting patterns here. As you alluded to, Braverman is leading with the hard-right contingent of the parliamentary party. Mordaunt has quite an interesting set: a mixture of pretty right-wing (Leadsom), more socially liberal (Richards), and indeed MPs who are a mixture of the two (Fabricant), which does fit with her image. Meanwhile Badenoch is getting a lot of ‘Red Wall’ endorsers, as well as those like Tom Hunt who, even if he doesn’t represent a Red Wall seat, is a 2019 baby and very much in that sphere. Tugendhat, unsurprisingly, is doing best with moderate ‘One Nation’ types, while, like Sunak (but on a smaller scale), there seems to be little discernible trend to Truss’ supporters.

[Blair]

What are the core differences between Sunak and Truss outiside the latter being a halfwit? It seems like a very similar front 2 in terms of wing if the party. I understand Sunaks appeal to the more moderates though.

Fundamentally they're pretty similar so it's mostly a case of positioning, but Sunak is much fussier about things like budget deficits and fiscal rectitude, while Truss thinks that free tax cuts are a thing you can have even without a windfall of cash. Truss has also leaned much more into stupid Culture War nonsense, but, again, 'positioning'.

The crucial thing about Truss is that if the events of 2016 had gone differently you just know she would be running as a cameronite- she has basically moulded into whatever the present leadership support.

FT reporting nominations will open on Tuesday, with the first ballot on Wednesday and then another the day after.

Do they have hustings at the MPs stage? It seems bizarre not to and just vote on vibes, job offers and petty feuds.

what is a husting?

It is where the candidates sit in a room and answer a series of questions from journalists or MPs.

They will do it with the membership when it gets to the final two.  

[Blair]

To be cruel Braverman is getting the right wing fossils whereas Badenoch is getting the right wing idiots in the 2019 intake.

I very much feel Shapps is running in the hope of securing a better job

[Chickpeas]

Presumably Zahawi will be running on all the things he has achieved as Chancellor so far. 

[TheTide]

Zahawi's tax affairs are under investigation by HMRC. Unfortunate timing.

[Conservatopia]

For the last couple of years I have been wanting to create a classification of all the Tory MPs into distinct 'camps' (not 'factions' as such), based on voting record, personal knowledge, and organisation membership.

I've never had the time to do it but this might be catalyst to actually get on and do so.

[Coldstream]

To be cruel Braverman is getting the right wing fossils whereas Badenoch is getting the right wing idiots in the 2019 intake.

I very much feel Shapps is running in the hope of securing a better job

Shapps is genuinely convinced he will be PM. He even said so in 2017 when he was behind a failed attempt to remove Theresa May.

[Torrain]

I'm not sure that the Zahawi news is an accident. An article has been posted in the Times this evening, suggesting that the party is dumping all it's dirt in the open, as the leadership race comes to the boil:

That may explain how today saw circulation of:
- The news about Zahawi's tax investigation.
- This embarrassing clip of a young Rishi Sunak.

Thing is, there's a lot of public dirt on the candidates already.
- Zahawi using public funds to keep his horses warm in their stable.
- Liz Truss having to fight to avoid deselection in 2009 after revelations of an extramarital affair.
- Sunak's Fixed Penalty Notice.
Just to name a few. So if this is public, what's going on in private?

[Blair]

There will also be stuff that can't be published but which will be told to MPs, whispered by campaigns & spread around.

This appears to be a very early warning to MPs 'don't put X into the final round as Labour will beat them once they uncover x'.

[Joe Republic]

Shapps is in:
https://twitter.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/1545800504810373122

"Johnsonism"

[Pericles]

To be cruel Braverman is getting the right wing fossils whereas Badenoch is getting the right wing idiots in the 2019 intake.

I very much feel Shapps is running in the hope of securing a better job

Shapps is genuinely convinced he will be PM. He even said so in 2017 when he was behind a failed attempt to remove Theresa May.

He's pretty hypocritical for saying he's been loyal to incumbent PMs.

[brucejoel99]

Health Secretaries galore:

https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1545869906796855297

[Estrella]

Shapps is in:
https://twitter.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/1545800504810373122

"Johnsonism"

Boris, Boris, ¡qué grande sos!
Mi general, ¡cuanto valés!
Boris, Boris, gran conductor,
sos el primer trabajador!

Johnsonism could mean anything since Boris can and does change his positions to anything he thinks will help him gain power, but here it probably stands for a combination of fiscally unconservative policies (using deficit to fund tax cuts rather than spending increases) and provocative culture wars. Basically a bad imitation of the GOP.

[Torrain]

This is interesting. Wonder if he offered her a Great Office of State.
https://mobile.twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1545879515632586752

[Pericles]

Now that Wallace is out, Sunak looks like the safest choice, but is still very beatable by Labour. I do like that he is less keen on tax cuts than the others, that would just make it even harder to help desperately underfunded public services and could be inflationary. Unfortunately even he will be slightly to the right of Boris policy-wise, maybe excluding Brexit.

As a Tory MP, I would consider Tugendhat though. He is extremely unknown but would also offer much more of a fresh start, though unlike the people voting in the contest for me him being more of a Remainer is a good thing. Hunt could be one of the least bad options as Prime Minister but he doesn't seems to have limited appeal to the party base and to the public.

[Zinneke]

Shapps is in:
https://twitter.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/1545800504810373122

"Johnsonism"

Picture it as a way of life rather than set of policies and it suddenly makes sense, in a very comfortable way.

[JimJamUK]

Penny Mordaunt seems to be running as the most moderate of the potential winners, albeit she’s just done a long Twitter thread talking about ‘what is a woman’ (and how she’s definitely not woke whatever her rivals claim).

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Are Braverman and Badenoch basically people the far right pushes forward to not seem racist?

[JerryArkansas]

Current update on the leadership race.  The colour choices suck, but I didn't know what to use for each person

[TheTide]

Are Braverman and Badenoch basically people the far right pushes forward to not seem racist?

There's no visible far right in this country anymore. There is a cultural warrior 'populist' right (and some within that like Braverman and Badenoch) but that's not the same thing.

[Torrain]

Truss allies have tried to highlight her contained loyalty to Johnson, in contrast to Sunak. In an effort to undermine this, someone, seemingly close to either the Scottish Secretary or Chief Whip have leaked a story to the Times about chief Truss ally Kwasi Kwartang asking for support for her leadership campaign back in January:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/liz-truss-promises-of-low-tax-and-defence-spending-launch-her-into-third-place-mjtdb7hl3

[Torrain]

Mordaunt in - with a video that consists of three minute of stock footage, voiced over by some old chap telling us to be proud of Britain, while ‘I Vow to Thee, My Country’ plays in the background.

https://mobile.twitter.com/PennyMordaunt/status/1546049184373121024

Say what you will about ‘ReadyForRishi’, but at least that launch video had some actual detail about the candidate.

[Conservatopia]

Esther McVey and Philip Davies (both very right-wing) have backed Jeremy Hunt. In fact, McVey is running on a joint ticket with Hunt. Seems weird to see Steve Brine and Peter Bottomley both endorsing him though.

Hunt has so far positioned himself somewhat to the right of his 2019 bid, possibly in part due to Penny Morduant (a close ally in '19) running her own campaign and taking some of the social liberal support from him. I think he will struggle to differentiate himself from Zahawi, Javid and Mordaunt but if he can stay ahead of them through the rounds, their support could fall in behind him once they are knocked out.

Priti Patel is gathering support for a bid but I think she's left it too late - Braverman and Badenoch are already soaking up her support base. She would be a sought-after endorsement by the campaigns due to her right-wing credentials.