Conservative Party of the UK Leadership Election, 2022

[TheTide]

Johnson about to resign.

[icc]

Suella Braverman and Steve Baker already indicating they will run. One would expect (and certainly hope) that both are no hopers.

[Cassius]

I wouldn’t be surprised if Steve Baker attracts a significant following, even if it’s not enough for him to get to the final two.

[CumbrianLefty]

I wouldn’t be surprised if Steve Baker attracts a significant following, even if it’s not enough for him to get to the final two.

He is at least "serious", even if a fairly fringe figure.

Braverman very much isn't.

[Joe Republic]

There is now a Wiki page.

[TheTide]

Gove out, Raab out. The latter is talked of as a caretaker PM.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Suella Braverman and Steve Baker already indicating they will run. One would expect (and certainly hope) that both are no hopers.

The nature of the election process (MPs hold eliminating ballots to winnow the list down to two who are then voted upon by the membership) has meant that fringe candidates without much prior experience can often do fairly well. Examples include Andrea Leadsom or Iain Duncan Smith.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Braverman announcing that she was going to run - without actually resigning as Attorney General, this when Johnson was still insisting that he was staying - live on national television last night was genuinely surreal stuff.

[TheTide]

Sunak is in, apparently. Setting up an HQ.

[CumbrianLefty]

Gove out, Raab out. The latter is talked of as a caretaker PM.

That looks unlikely now that Johnson seems to have got a vaguely functioning team together again.

[EastAnglianLefty]

The revealed preference for the Tory party from all this has been to do things in as quiet and dignified a fashion as possible, which means they only act when Johnson makes clear there's no alternative. Given Johnson has committed to resigning after the leadership election, that means they're unlikely to force him out beforehand, even if they would really prefer that he went straight away.

[JimJamUK]

I note the couple of polls done (today and January gone) have Jeremy Hunt losing in a landslide to whoever he’s up against. Will the media keep hyping him up?

[CumbrianLefty]

I note the couple of polls done (today and January gone) have Jeremy Hunt losing in a landslide to whoever he’s up against. Will the media keep hyping him up?

Very likely, they always have had their favourites regardless of the actual evidence.

(see - on the other side of the floor - Yvette Cooper, plus C*u*a U*m*n* back in the day)

[Conservatopia]

For now the race is wide open although the prevailing wisdom seems to be Truss and Wallace as the strongest candidates.

I think it would be a mistake to count out Javid too - he performed quite strongly last time.

Hunt will be the social liberal wing's testimonial candidate, Mordaunt is quite liberal so might eat into that although her Brexiteer credentials will offset that in the MPs rounds.

Braverman will be the hard right's candidate for now. I think her and Baker will come to an agreement of some sort where only one of them ultimately runs. If so then I think Baker is more to run likely than Braverman. He would get a lot further too.

In case anybody cares my personal ranking would be:
Baker>Truss>Wallace>Patel>Javid>Shapps>Hunt>Mordaunt

[Conservatopia]

Endorsement tracker:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ffqemZ-YOi7AvAw8HbxmMd0vIbsOXLZ7KpAmNQPD2r8/edit#gid=0

[YL]

I assume Tugendhat doesn't actually have much of a chance?

[Blair]

I assume Tugendhat doesn't actually have much of a chance?

It all depends on how the first few rounds go- the ‘one nation’ caucus is large enough that if it unites it can deliver a lot for a candidate. They essentially swung behind May in 2016 and won it for her.

I don’t know why Hunt doesn’t drop out and endorse him- all he will do is take 20 or so MPs from him.

Sunak is in, apparently. Setting up an HQ.

I actually thought he might not run after the recent months- I think he would be a lot easier for Labour than people expect.

[Blair]

There was talk about changing the nomination requirements to stop vanity, troll or joke campaigns. It would make sense to require at least 10 signatures to get on the ballot.

[DL]

I have to think that from Labour's point of view the dream Tory leader would have to be Liz Truss. Who would be better to run against than a Cruella DeVil-type "rich bitch" guaranteed to make any remaining "red wall" Tory voters drop the Tories like a hot potato!

Another factor people will be too polite to say publicly is the fact that so much of the Tory voter base and membership are racists - and if they were to make Sunak, Javid or Zawahi the new Tory leader - a lot of the "white working class" pro-Brexit types in the so-called Red Wall seats who were attracted to BoJo will be instantly turned off and will not vote at all in the next election.

[MABA 2020]

So unlike last time this race has no frontrunner right? It could be any of the big names of which there are about 8

[Benjamin Frank]

Theresa May should come back. Maymentum!

[JimJamUK]

Another factor people will be too polite to say publicly is the fact that so much of the Tory voter base and membership are racists - and if they were to make Sunak, Javid or Zawahi the new Tory leader - a lot of the "white working class" pro-Brexit types in the so-called Red Wall seats who were attracted to BoJo will be instantly turned off and will not vote at all in the next election.

"A lot" is stretching it. There will certainly be a few out and out racists here and there, but most of these sorts of people either do not vote to begin with (and Johnson won over very few previous non-voters) or their willingness to vote Conservative won't really be affected (its not like the Labour Party is lily white). The vast majority of people who switched to the Conservative at the last couple of elections are not hardcore racists who change their voting behaviour based upon a leaders skin colour, but rather cultural conservatives who don't like immigration, the EU etc. The likes of Sunak or Javid will lose a lot more 2019 Conservative voters based upon the cost of living and their perceived out of touch right wing policies/demeanour than because of their skin colour.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

What's Wallace's story? I like a lot of what he's said and done with regards to Ukraine, but I've also vaguely heard he's pretty unpleasant (from my ideological and aesthetic point of view) otherwise.

[Blair]

I have to think that from Labour's point of view the dream Tory leader would have to be Liz Truss. Who would be better to run against than a Cruella DeVil-type "rich bitch" guaranteed to make any remaining "red wall" Tory voters drop the Tories like a hot potato!

Another factor people will be too polite to say publicly is the fact that so much of the Tory voter base and membership are racists - and if they were to make Sunak, Javid or Zawahi the new Tory leader - a lot of the "white working class" pro-Brexit types in the so-called Red Wall seats who were attracted to BoJo will be instantly turned off and will not vote at all in the next election.

The bottom part isn’t true remotely though- even among the Tory membership there are very few of these types. We know this because the Tory membership in safe tory shire seats has a record of selecting non-white candidates.

Does the party have a problem with Islamophobia and islamophobic attitudes? Yes. But  it doesn’t extend to Tory voters refusing to vote for someone like Rishi Sunak.

[Blair]

People confuse the type of red wall voters you see on facebook (who shout abuse about Sadiq Khan and post memes about 50s life) with the actual reality of what they are.